Welcome to NFL DFS #TheWishbone! Some of you might not even know what a wishbone is, and I’m about to date myself here. The Wishbone, before passing became so prolific, was perhaps the most powerful running formation in all of football. I’m talking before Tecmo Bowl and face masks. The beauty of the wishbone formation, and this article series, is you knew what you were getting. It was going to be announced as fundamentally sound and maybe a bit chalky. But, you were still going to have to stop it………..and that was the problem, most couldn’t. I write the same way. Here it is big boy, come and get it!
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Remember, this article is designed to get you pointed in the right direction. It’s not a thorough slate write-up and it’s not a player picks piece. I would rather get you started, then have you interact with us in our VIP slack forums as we banter picks and strategies back and forth. Learning NFL the right way is the fastest way to grow your skill level. Certainly, follow me for “process” or validation. But, we are going to disagree….and that’s perfectly fine. You only need to know WHY you disagree with me, and you need to be able to trust your own gut and think for yourself. That is the only way you will truly be a great DFS NFL player.
Week 4 NFL Vegas Odds Table
We can talk about a lot of things, but when it comes to the NFL, I like keeping things simple at first. Implied columns are the individual team’s implied total. The favorite is obviously the favored team in Vegas. The underdog is obviously the underdog. And, the spread is the point differential Vegas feels the final score will display. We use all of these parameters to predict game scripts and prioritize the games we plan to attack for the upcoming week.
NFL DFS Week 4 “Top 3s”
I’m not going to break down every game and every playable player for you. I will, however, give you MY favorites. My favorite games, players at each position, and gpp plays. I’m going to keep it rather short, though. I’m curating my own content and research, and I expect you to do the same. And, I’m absolutely honored, you consider me one of your curated sources and trusted weekly opinions. I love listening to our podcast page, both free and VIP-only. I also use our Research Station very heavily all year long (tutorial here).
Top 3 NFL Games to Target
CIN @ ATL – Potential shootout on the turf in a dome, and chalky. I love games like these because people will always overthink this situation, even in cash, saying “I’m fading the game due to ownership.” Well, thanks for the money in your 5050s, bub. You are the reason I have a job. You don’t profit long-term by fading these games week in and week out. You use a big portion of your weekly budget eating chalk and playing safe cash games to grind your roll to the point you can enter bigger dollar, smaller contestant gpps that are inherently more winnable than the lottery ticket Fanduel/Draftking’s gimmick gpps I like to call sucker’s bets. High point total given by Vegas with proven production in known spots. Don’t get cute….make this game part of your week somewhere. Save cute for gpps and baby pictures.
MIN @ LAR – I’m pissed. I’m pissed because I want hard pieces of these offenses, but I’m confused. Short week, great defenses, but also….short week, stud offenses. How will it play out? I don’t know. I love Gurley, Theilen, the defenses, the quarterbacks, the lesser chalk plays like Kupp, Woods, Diggs, Rudolph. I love so much about this game I’m likely to just avoid the Th-Mon slate and sit back with a cold beer, or four, and just watch it as a fan.
NOS @ NYG – Another higher total game, this one should be the chalk on the 4pm only. The NO defense is bad so far and NYG haven’t been able to get a lot going offensively with my grandma putting tighter spirals on footballs than Eli these days. I wish New York fans would give this a rest, Eli luckboxed two Super Bowls with great plays at the right time and has two rings. But, outside of that, he freakin sucks. He’s not good. He’s not Hall of Fame. But, because you share your city with 20 million other people thinking he’s great, he probably will be in the Hall. That said, there are plays here I like. I love what you guys did in drafting Saquon. Sure, it might have been smarter to take a QB and shelve him behind Eli, but that’s not how you roll. Eli won you a couple Super Bowls, he can do it again if you only have that electric running back you took ahead of other QBs currently playing better than Eli as rooks. While you hang your hat on that, I’m just going to watch OBJ hopefully come to life, Saquon run like the wind, Drew Brees throw all over the place to keep pace, Kamara break a big play, and Michael Thomas just do what he does…………all while Eli looks like he can’t make up his mind if he threw the ball to the white jerseys again or if he forgot he needed to carry the 1 when filling out his tax information. Either way, I’ll be watching. (And, don’t take it personally, New York Fan. I’m just having fun at your expense. I live in STL, and went to the University of Kansas. You can take plenty of shots at me…..and you’ll be correct.)
Top 3 Quarterbacks
Allow me to first show you how this works. I’m narrowing down to my favorite 3 at each spot. My personal list might be a good bit bigger. QBs, for example, have me narrowing down quickly from 32 to 6. But, from there we start splitting hairs. The 7 are: Alex Smith, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Brees, Goff, and Keenum. These are QBs I believe can “win the week” at their positions. But, now with a gun to my head, I have to look at the first three I’ll be excited to reach for in my core lineups. I’ll take tourney shots with all of them at varying exposures.
Aaron Rodgers – Mr. Rodgers’ Neighborhood should be plenty active this week with Buffalo coming into town. 19, 16, and 25 are solid enough scores for a guy on a bum knee and in the mid-8k range. He might have upside into the 30s this week. We love us some home, favored quarterbacks to start our research and know it’s far from embarrassing when mentioning Rodgers as the greatest QB in the league currently. His efficiency numbers aren’t there right now at 17th in QBR and 18th in yards per attempt, but we might be due some regression…..and this might be the week to take advantage. C’mon, Buffalo…..scare everyone away from this obvious cash play.
Matt Ryan – I’m inclined to go back to the well here. For one, options are limited on the Main Slate with Rothlisberger, Mahomes, Goff (yes, Goff), and Rivers on the goofy slates. For two, we are going to want access to some safer savings at QB, but a lot of our usual choices are either on the road or facing tougher defenses. Matty Ice hasn’t been bad, though. 8th in QBR, 5th in yards per attempt, and scores the last three weeks on Fanduel of 40, 31, and 10. I don’t like the 10, but the rest is legit. His efficiency is back, and he’s at home, favored, and implied to score 28+ points in a potential shootout game as indicated by Vegas this week.
I’m disclaiming things immediately in an effort to be completely transparent with you, the reader. I’m not playing too heavily this week, and I believe being disciplined is your greatest asset in beating the DFS NFL game. Being able to play less when all the degenerates keep playing the same amounts (or even more than they should) will hold your profits longer, allowing you to hit those winning weeks harder. This is the kind of coaching advice our VIPs get from me on a weekly basis, and why our community is doing more than it’s part to make people better DFS players in every sport. It’s not debatable. We help you. Period.
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Philip Rivers – I hate targeting the Thursday Night Football games, but I sort of have to if playing that slate. The fade is always ok, and rarely burns us to the point we needed a Thursday player to cash. But, with the potential scoring of these teams, and the loss of possibly two corners from the Rams secondary, we might have to treat it like a normal game. I hate how unpredictable these short-week scenarios are, but Rivers is producing (so is Goff). He is 3rd in QBR, 7th in yards per attempt, and has previous scores on Fanduel of 17, 22, and 30. For $7800, he provides a nice pivot from the guys up in the mid to high 8k range this week. He’s there if you need it, but you need to play the Th-Mon slate and suffer increased ownership to get him.
Editor’s Note – I’m a moron and sometimes get teams stuck in my head. For some reason, in all my prep for this article, I could not get it out of my head that the Chargers played the Rams LAST week. Rivers is on the Main Slate at 4:25pm Sunday. He is playing SF49ers in LA as a 9.5 point favorite, implied to score around 29 points. He’s in a cherry spot, and if you picked up on the mistake above, Rivers should NOT be downplayed. At $7800 on FD, he is one of the better, safer QBs on the slate…..and is very much one of my favorites in any format. Consider this correction a personal slap in the ass. And, as I always joke with our members when I make a boneheaded gaffe, “USE CODE CHOP! FOLLOW ME TO RICHES!!“
Too many wins to count! Three over $20,000 alone. From small slates to large, showdowns to primetimes, cash to gpps, DFS Army continues to dominate the leaderboards. You can find the biggest on our Wall of Wins, and specifically read DBarlow’s $250k story —> HERE!
Top 3 Running Backs
Alvin Kamara – How obvious is this getting? Well, it’s not my job to get cute from week to week and sacrifice my legit favorite plays in order to change things up and entertain you. My job is to stay the course until otherwise warranted and live up to my promise to point your research in solid directions no matter how boring. New Orleans are road favorites in a 51 point total game facing the Giants, who are actually 23rd in DVOA vs the run this year. We still have only a few options in the Saints offense funneling us to the same guys for all the production. I don’t know about you, but I’m not changing my game plan…..if I can afford it. I looked at red zone touches and found Todd Gurley leading the league with 22. That is until I saw Kamara with a sickening 28! Yes, he’s expensive, but he’s also still a flipping value play.
Saquon Barkley – You won’t often see me target two running backs from the same game, but this week I might. People will tell you bellcow backs facing off slow the pace of the game. First, I call bullshit on that lame excuse because I only care how many points they score, not how many plays they run (even though I understand the usefulness of that concept). Second, I remind you both Kamara and Barkley are heavily featured in the passing game. Should I also tell you Barkley is at home (a primary starting point for me always), and New Orleans is currently 31st in the league in DVOA to pass-catching backs? I have no issues with this play this week. None at all.
Marshawn Lynch – No, I’m not only listing him here so I don’t get fined. I’m listing him here because he’s back on the radar at his price point. $6400 on Fanduel for a TD machine is really, really good. Averaging 18 touches per game (a few surprising receptions) and a crazy 10 red zone carries, have me looking to Lynch as a home favorite running back who’s workload is somewhat secure under John Gruden’s old school ways. I needed to game log hunt him for a second to see if he’s actually producing, and I saw these scores this year…. 16, 13, 12. Not terrible for the price. Over 2X value in all three cases, and nearly 3X in the latest. The only other similar looking back in terms of value multiplier? Alvin Kamara. Heeelz yeah.
Top 3 Wide Receivers
Devante Adams – When looking for top shelf receivers, we are always looking right to Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, or Michael Thomas. Maybe OBJ, DeAndre Hopkins, or even AJ Green come to mind. All are more expensive than Devante Adams, but for $8000 on Fanduel, Adams is offering some crazy good numbers of his own. Consistency is one thing I very much value, and Adams has delivered 15, 16, and 17 points so far. Give me 28 targets (7 in the red zone alone) and a solid WR1 target share of 24%, and you have my interest. Give me a matchup at home with the incoming Buffalo Bills, and you will see me mashing the lock button in our optimizer until my fingers bleed.
Kenny Golladay – Have you compared Golladay to Golden Tate lately? I mean, I knew DET had a three-headed monster in the receiving corps, but I didn’t know how equal two of the pieces were. Which is Tate and which is Golladay? L3 weeks Fanduel points… A- 10/15/17, or B- 14/18/15? Total targets… A- 36, or B- 28? Red zone targets….A- 2, or B- 3? Air yards….A- 257, or B- 382? Ok, that last one might have you thinking A is Tate and B is Golladay, and you are correct. But, really look at them. Golladay is equally targeted in this offense, scoring very consistently like Tate (even better, in fact), and is actually cheaper by $1000 on Fanduel where they are essentially equal on Draftkings. This one is a no-brainer, if you decide to target some of this matchup with Dallas.
Emmanuel Sanders – How is his price still under $7000? His 3 week Fanduel scores are: 16, 11, and 24. Sanders is the 8th highest scoring WR on the season at the 19th highest price. DFS is about value, and to paraphrase Madonna “this is where you find it.” Give me the Chiefs crappy defense in altitude and a potential shootout, and I’ll take the most stable source of points in the Denver offense all day.
Top 3 Tight Ends
Zach Ertz – There is no safer TE in the game right now. People are whispering “committee,” and I see that, but I don’t care. Why? Workload. Ertz has still accumulated a position-high 33 targets through three weeks. He has 5 red zone targets as a bonus and has fairly consistent production for a crazy volatile position. His $7000 price on Fanduel compares to the likes of Jarvis Landry, Emmanuel Sanders, Robert Woods, or Golden Tate. Ertz is like adding another high floor, cash safe receiver when everyone else is forced to gamble. Get him in there if you can.
Eric Ebron – I’m going back to the well if Jack Doyle misses another week. Again, we love seeing people burned the previous week so we can take advantage of recency bias. Few will look to see Ebron’s 11 targets, 102 air yards, and 4 red zone targets. Instead, they will think back at how he burned them……when he didn’t. He was fairly inexpensive for what you received, and coupled with ownership being high, he didn’t hurt you one bit in your cash games. If you didn’t cash, it was because of other mistakes you made…..not this one. The Texans pass defense is currently ranked 25th in DVOA and is specifically ranked a middling 18th against the TE position.
Trey Burton – We keep waiting for this featured receiver to show up like he did in the preseason. However, we are likely being held back by Mitchell Trubisky. That said, Burton is drawing an average of 5 targets per week and some red zone looks when CHI gets down there. We saw big play ability last year, too, and it’s only a matter of time before we see it again. Allen Robinson is the only other legit pass catcher in this offense right now, so Burton finds himself in a spot where he should have a marginally acceptable floor. However, this week, Chicago is home, favored, and facing a team struggling in all phases of its secondary. TB is currently 25th in DVOA vs the tight end.
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Top 3 Defenses
Green Bay Packers – Our “Duh Duh Defense” play of the week is brought to you by the Green Bay Packers facing the Buffalo Bills again. I know Buffalo flashed shocking brilliance in defeating Minnesota, but Vegas just shook that one off and kept chugging in telling us Buffalo didn’t have some spontaneous epiphany. They lack talent, and they don’t have quality quarterbacks. We should see some chalk here, but sometimes that sting of last week really sits with people. I don’t care. I’ll take all the lower ownership in the lock spot you want to give me. Another 10 point underdog and implied to score under 18 points again mean I need to just keep attacking that crappy offense and let the larger numbers play out. I’ll be happy before long.
Jacksonville Jaguars – JAX seems off to a slower start than last year for sure, but not much changed fundamentally with this defense. They draw the Jets this week and the inevitable ups and downs of Sam Darnold. We love seeing big favorites like the Jags, and the Jets are carrying the lowest implied total on the week at 15.5 points. If you are afraid of Buffalo (I can barely say that with a straight face), load up on Jags.
TIP – Sometimes we just don’t have 3 options we like. And, honestly, you will see that more with defenses than any other position. A high priced defense and a lower priced one are often all you need to round out your lineup construction being you should know already if you are paying up or down for key spots like RB, QB, even TE and can just stick the appropriately priced defense in your lineup to refresh your average salary remaining and target better quality in other positions.
Remember, my Top 3 GPP picks are yet to come….keep reading!
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Top 3 GPP Plays
Courtland Sutton – Everyone will be looking to attack Chiefs this year, and this week is no different. However, most should be turning to Emmanuel Sanders or Demaryius Thomas. However, Courtland Sutton has been rumored to be picking up the offense. We know the Broncos think highly of him. And, at $4700 on FD, we don’t need a lot to make this a great play at lower ownership. 13% target share and no red zone targets are not numbers we like to see, but Kansas City is really bad and they are making a habit of giving up points to everyone this year.
TY Hilton – One of my favorite go-tos, TY finds himself in another gpp spot. But, with everyone saying Andrew Luck has a noodle arm, Hilton has amassed decent stats so far this year, and I hate to say it but he might be showing some kind of floor with the way he’s being used. 32 targets, with 4 in the red zone, have given him 18, 18, and 13 points over the first three weeks. In a matchup perceived tougher than it might be, on the road where people won’t usually take TY, and with this floor, it might be a reasonable gamble to take those secure points he’s flashing and roll the dice on a 2 TD upside day we all know he possesses. As an added bonus, stack the game with him. DeShawn Watson is fairly popular most weeks, but he isn’t the chalk he was at this point last year. Quarterback is also a rather flat ownership position, so you don’t have as much to worry about here, especially with this game being only a 47.5 total. I’d be pairing Watson with one of his receivers and running back with TY well before I reached for Andrew Luck at this point. I don’t know why I felt that worth mentioning. I think it’s fairly obvious Luck is going to take more time to get all the way back to testing his ceiling.
Ben Rothelisberger and Antonio Brown – I know I shouldn’t be as fearful as I am when it comes to PIT at home in cash games, but this BAL defense is no joke. It’s a tough week to pay such crazy prices when we can just pivot to names like Rodgers, Ryan, or even Brady over Big Ben. Given the matchup, Hopkins, Michael Thomas, and maybe even Julio have more exploitable secondaries this week. That is exactly why you should consider the Ben/AB stack in your gpps. When people are fearful, you should get greedy. These guys are capable of beating any matchup when “on” and Antonio didn’t exactly have the great game people were expecting after he was bitching prior to Week 3. “Dud” weeks do serve to push ownership down, and coupled with a poor matchup, you have a stage set for a big payoff should something as unlikely as Buffalo beating Minnesota in Minnesota happen again.
NFL DFS Breakdown Video – “Box Checkers” A Hyper-Simple Method to Narrow Your Player Pool
But, We’re Not Done!
I am a better cash player than GPP player; therefore, you can easily use my chalk plays to find similar, but lower owned, plays for yourself. And, you can also use me to help you learn the fundamentals if you are just starting out. The cash players are often highly owned. They are highly owned for a reason…they are in the best spots, the obvious spots. When you graduate from my school of the obvious, you are ready to ask The Geek, Donuts, Keg, Puggle, DFSUpNorth, ThunderDan, BigMarley, ScottiB, and our other staff members for their opinions on more sophisticated endeavors. But, you can only do so as a VIP. Our Slack chat forum is where the magic happens, and it’s where these coaches live!!
Bookmark this article because I will be updating the section below with a lot of pertinent articles as they drop throughout the week. My intention is for you to rely on this single piece for most of the important reading you do any given week. Don’t forget to use code CHOP for your discount when signing up at DFS Army.com to unlock your 20% discount. And, don’t forget to give me a follow out on Twitter via the link back at the top. I am usually trying to foster discussion out there, too.
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