Good afternoon Army, and welcome to this week’s NASCAR VIP breakdown! We’re back at Richmond this week for race #2 of the playoffs, and as we saw last week, things can get crazy pretty fast this time of the year. With that in mind, it’s more important than ever to practice proper bankroll management, but I know you guys have been doing that all year anyway…right? Right! Well, let’s get right to it!
Richmond Raceway
Number of dominators
Just like yesterday’s Xfinity race, I would default to two dominators in all formats on DraftKings. You can try your hand at some single dominator lineups in tournaments but there’s no reason to get that cute for your cash games. Since we have 400 laps there’s always a chance we get three (or more) dominators, but as I always say, that’s pretty hard to predict. In that case, you’re better off going with two dominators/pivots and taking a stud/dom to go with them. In other words, try to avoid taking three dom pivots together…unless you’re feeling really lucky!
On FanDuel I would go for at least one dominator in all formats, and possibly two. There’s no need to chase a third dominator over here.
Lineup construction/correlation
Since we have so many laps today, and because it’s the playoffs and we could see more chaos than usual, there are a few different ways we can go today (this section mostly applies to DraftKings). For starters, allow your number of dominators dictate how you build your lineups. These are the approaches I would recommend;
Single dominator
Balanced – take one dom, fade the other dom pivots/super punts, and go for as much finishing position from studs and place differential from studs/value studs/value as possible. One regular punt is okay here but the idea is to load up on the mid and mid/high range for big chunks of scoring, so it shouldn’t be necessary to drop down to a super punt.
Two dominators (default here for cash games!)
Balanced – Same as above but with at least one dom/stud to go with your main dom. I would use this approach for cash games (while avoiding the super punts).
Stars & scrubs – take two doms, fade the other dom pivots, take a super punt, then load up on as much finishing position and place differential as you can, from wherever you can get it. The super punt plays a vital role here, as you don’t want one who only scores 5-10 DKFP. You will want to land on the one (if there is one) who nets you 25+ DKFP (preferably 35+) at minimum salary. Because there as so many laps, you can pair together pretty much any dominators you want, as they will all have a good opportunity to pay off their salaries.
Three dominators
Stars & scrubs – take two doms, fade the other dom pivots, take a dom/stud, take a super punt, and fill in the blanks with whatever you can. The idea here is that your two doms and dom/stud will all lead about 75 or more laps, but your dom/stud can lead fewer laps if they’re able to offer both a strong finish and place differential. Like above, the super punt is vital here as well.
Driver list
As usual, my favorite plays for all formats are bolded with a green background, while my favorite gpp pivots are in italics with a yellow background. Note that some of them are listed as “all” with a yellow background and italics. This just means that they are safe enough for cash, but I like their upside for tournaments even more.
Cash games approach
As usual, eat the chalk here and let others make mistakes. Because there is so much chalk today, it might be better to go for larger field cash games as opposed to head to heads, as there may only be a handful of common cash lineups out there. Tying in a head to head is an automatic 10% loss, while you still have a shot at a return in 50/50s and/or double ups even though you’ll probably tie a handful of people.
Chalky cash plays
Kevin Harvick – He didn’t dominate here earlier in the season, but this is a playoff race and he has the pole today (he’s also dominated plenty of times here in the past). Random chaos aside, I fully expect him to lead a healthy chunk of laps today on his way to a top-5 finish.
Martin Truex Jr – He has the same playoff motivation as the other guys and has dominated three of the last four races here (two of which he led 193+ laps). I’ll be very surprised if he doesn’t find his way up front for a while today, even though Harvick might lead the first chunk of the race.
Clint Bowyer – Bowyer starts 24th and is an easy play in all formats today. He has one of the bigger ceilings today, as he has a top-5 car and 40+ lead lap potential along with all the place differential potential. He’s a cash staple today!
Joey Logano – Basically the same as Bowyer but with less place differential potential, but still a very solid play in all formats. I would go with Bowyer first, but don’t hesitate to go here if you can’t quite pay for Bowyer. Another option would be to use Bowyer on DraftKings and Logano on FanDuel where the place differential isn’t quite as important.
Daniel Suarez – Another easy play, Suarez failed post-qualifying inspection and will be scored from 38th today at a track he’s very good at (he’s finished 3rd, 7th, and 12th in his three races here). He has a very high floor along with a very high ceiling, and you would be crazy not to play him in cash today!
Austin Dillon – This Dillon is a playoff driver who knows he likely will not win, so he needs some strong finishes to advance. He’s fairly good here (has finished 13th once and 20th three times), so I expect him to be at his best today as he goes for a top-15. That’s great for us considering he’s only $6,900, and he’s good to go in all formats today.
Regan Smith – Smith has plenty of experience here and rolls out 39th today in the #95 car. A top-25 should be fairly easy for him today and he makes a fantastic cash play.
David Ragan – I prefer Ragan on the bottom end today. He has the best floor today starting 40th and has a higher ceiling than Smith does (Smith is likely capped at a 20th place finish, while Ragan could see a top-15).
Cash dominators
Harvick and Truex are your main guys here and you should have at least one of them in every cash lineup today. Save the dom pivots for tournaments!
Cash value drivers (under $7k)
Byron, Allmendinger, and Ty Dillon are fine options in cash. I would go for the chalky guys (noted above) first, but there’s nothing wrong with these guys today for your cash games. If nothing else, get some exposure to them in tournaments! Byron finished 12th here earlier this year and he’s my favorite of the three.
I didn’t list any other punts or super punts here because they aren’t required for cash games today. Save them for tournaments! If you somehow can’t build a cash lineup with Dillon/Dillon/Smith/Ragan/Byron/Allmendinger, get with me so we can get you squared away!
Cash value drivers (above $7k)
DANIEL. SUAREZ. Next category!
Cash studs (above $8k)
Bowyer and Logano are the first two I’d look at, but Johnson and Chase make solid plays as well. If you don’t have any shares of them in cash (or any of four, really), be sure to get some exposure to them in tournaments!
Night racing is the best racing!
Tournament approach
Same old same old here…eat some chalk and make a bold pivot or two. It doesn’t take much! With as much chalk as there is today, it’s very likely that we see four or five of them in the winning lineup today with just one or two pivots to fill in the blanks. Don’t go crazy fading all of the chalk in the same lineup(s) for tournaments because that’s just not necessary to win.
GPP dominators
First, remember what I said earlier; because there are 400 laps, that makes dominator correlation much easier today, so feel free to pair any of them together. There are more than enough laps to go around for even the two most expensive drivers to pay off their salaries.
There are a handful of good options, and I like them in this order; Kurt/Kyle Busch/Keselowski, then Bowyer/Logano, then Almirola/Blaney/Chase, then Hamlin/Larson. Erik Jones could be used as a longshot but I really don’t like him as a dominator today.
*EDIT* I forgot to mention this earlier, but yes Kyle Busch will move to the rear while being scored from 12th. This removes any interest I would have had for him in cash, but he’s still a viable GPP pivot. Remember, there are a bunch of laps to go around here, and leading the last 100 laps counts just the same as leading the first 100. You could go a little underweight on him if this concerns you, but I wouldn’t flat out fade him today. He’s still one of the best drivers in one of the best cars, and he can certainly dominate here and find his way into the winning lineup!
GPP value drivers (under $7k)
Byron, Allmendinger, and Stenhouse Jr are my favorite GPP pivots here. All three have the potential to finish a lot higher than expected and are worth getting a decent amount of exposure to in tournaments (especially if you skip them in cash).
I don’t love the others here (Wallace, McDowell, etc) but they can be used if you want. I’d sprinkle them around and go heavier on the ones I mentioned above.
Custer is in a bad spot and I don’t see him finishing anywhere near where he’s starting, but if you’re looking for a YOLO play, there you go. If he somehow finishes in the top-5 he could be in the winning lineup, but there’s only a slim chance of that happening.
For super punts, well, they’re all a gamble but they have high ceilings if things get crazy and half the field wrecks. Try to save them for your stars & scrubs lineups. Because you would be relying on a lot of unpredictable chaos, I can’t really recommend WHO to use, just HOW to use them.
GPP value drivers (above $7k)
McMurray is one of my favorite GPP pivots today, as he has top-5 potential and could sneak into the winning lineup with one of them today. He’s done it before (three times actually, all 4th place finishes, as well as a 6th and 7th place finish) and could very well do it again today. I wish he was starting in the 20s so we could use him in cash, but at least we can still use him in tournaments.
Next up would be Newman, Bowman, Menard, and Kenseth…in that order. The first three have realistic top-10 potential and would find their way into the winning lineup with one. I don’t like Kenseth’s chances, but it’s still possible. I’d go the lightest on him and focus more on the other three.
GPP studs (above $8k)
If you didn’t take Bowyer or Logano in cash today, I’d recommend taking them here.
Aside from them, Johnson and Chase are my favorites here, as they both have top-5 potential along with some dominator potential (Chase is the more likely dominator, where Johnson is a bit of a longshot).
They looked very good here earlier in the year (Johnson finished 6th while Chase finished 2nd), and that was before the Chevy camp starting to get their act together (this is the same reason I like Byron/Bowman as well). They should not be skipped over today, especially not Johnson for only $7,900. He has a ton of value potential!
I want to love Erik Jones here but I just can’t. I usually don’t mind him starting up high because he’s been cheap enough to justify it with a top-5 or so finish, but at $9,300 the potential just isn’t there. If you want to play him, consider him over on FanDuel. Unfortunately, he’s just not a very good play on DraftKings today.
Aaaaand that’ll do it for today. Good luck, and see you all in Slack!