Good afternoon Army, and welcome to this week’s NASCAR VIP breakdown! There are a handful of races that we circle on the calendar at the start of every season, and Darlington should be one of the first that gets marked. It’s among the most iconic tracks on the circuit with the added bonus that there are a bunch of cool throwback paint schemes that we don’t see anywhere else. This 1.366-mile track is unlike anything else on the circuit (though similar to some, but we’ll get to that), so be sure to tune in for this one!
Darlington Raceway
Similar to our last Cup race (at Bristol), we have a good chunk of laps at this race as well. With 367 laps today, dominators will be pretty important again, but as always it’s all about correlating your dominators with the rest of your lineup(s). As usual, let’s touch on that first:
Number of dominators
On DraftKings we should look for two dominators in all formats as a starting point. Don’t be afraid to sprinkle in a few three dominator lineups in tournaments, as it’s entirely possible that three different drivers all lead about 100 laps, but don’t go overboard here.
If you go that route you’ll probably want to use two chalky dominators and make your third one a riskier GPP pivot, or use one chalky dominator and two GPP pivots. I wouldn’t go crazy with three GPP pivot dominators, as that’s asking for a bit too much to go wrong here (it get can a little crazy here, but this is no plate race).
On FanDuel I would look for two dominators for cash and either one or two dominators in tournaments.
Lineup construction/correlation
Construction this week depends on how many dominators you take. If you take two dominators you can build something in between stars & scrubs and balanced. If you take three dominators you’ll have to go stars & scrubs (unless your third dominator is in the $8,000 range somewhere, which would allow you to build a bit more balanced). Check the GPP dominators section below for more information on the three dominator approach.
Driver list
As usual, my favorite “all format” plays are bolded and marked in green, where my favorite tournament plays are listed in italics with a yellow background. Also, a couple of other notes here:
First, there are some drivers marked as “all/gpp” with two roles. That means I like them in all formats with the first role but also like them in tournaments as the second role.
Second, two drivers are marked as “all” but also have the yellow background indicating they are a favorite GPP play. That means I like them enough for cash games but I like their ceiling even more for tournaments.
Cash games approach
As usual, eat the chalk and let others make mistakes. Remember that pole sitters tend to do very well here, which leads us to…
Chalky cash plays
Denny Hamlin. He has a solid history here and I would like him pretty much from any starting position, let alone on the pole. He’s underpriced for what he offers and has the easiest path to securing a healthy chunk of lead laps. If you’re playing cash games today, you should be playing Denny!
Harvick has a solid history here as well and starts 22nd today, giving us a solid floor and a very high ceiling. It’s very likely that he moves his way up and dominates a portion of the race, but even if he doesn’t, he’s a top-5 machine and can easily pay off with a strong finish and all of the fastest laps he’s sure to grab. You can always get funky in tournaments but for cash games, he’s your high-dollar guy today.
Clint Bowyer managed some decent finishes in his old car (which is a turd compared to what he’s driving now) and rolls off 17th. He’s basically the same as Harvick with a slightly lower ceiling, but don’t be surprised at all to see him lead a few laps and finish in the top-10 somewhere. Easy cash game play with lots of tournament upside, and he’s a bit underpriced as well.
Jamie McMurray has a solid history here and rolls off 31st. He has the car and skill to grab a top-10 here, but at his price, even a top-20 would be fine for cash games. I know he had an engine failure in practice, but remember that this isn’t some random budget team. His replacement engine should be every bit as strong as the original, and you can be sure they will do everything they can to ensure this one is built to go the whole race. I’d be a little worried if he were starting close to the front, but 31st? No problem!
Cash dominators
Again, everything starts with Denny and ends with Harvick for cash game dominators. There’s no need to complicate things here!
If you don’t want to run Harvick then I would look at Kyle Busch instead, though I don’t think he’s worth an extra $1,000 for cash games. Truex can be used here if you really want, but I’d rather pay the extra $500 for Harvick instead. I highly recommend saving these two guys for tournaments.
Cash value drivers (under $7k)
The two Dillons (Austin and Ty) both are solid for cash games and have shown high upside here for tournaments, so I would look at them first.
Kahne has a somewhat iffy history here but should be plenty safe starting 29th (solid floor and decent upside if he has a good race). DiBenedetto has a decent floor but also a very limited ceiling. He’s fine for cash games if you can’t afford anybody else, but he wouldn’t be who I looked at first.
Cash value drivers (above $7k)
McMurray is the main guy here. I didn’t pour on the stats earlier so I will now; he’s raced here 17 times in the Cup series with an average finish of 15.5. He’s had six top-10s and three top-5s. He’s completed 5,934 of 6105 (97.2%) of the laps in his races here. He starts 31st and only costs $7,400. He’s way too cheap for what he offers here and I don’t care that he’s using a backup engine. If anything, the new engine will probably get more love than the first one did, since it’s a pretty big deal to lose one the way they did. Roll him out with confidence!
The other drivers in this price range are starting way too high to be considered for cash games. The exceptions here would be Stenhouse and Suarez, but why would you pay more for a lower floor/ceiling? Save them for tournaments!
Cash studs (above $8k)
Hamlin, Harvick, Bowyer. Easy!
After that, there are three guys who I like; Kurt, Aric, and Johnson…in that order. They are all cheap enough to be used as a cash game stud, and Kurt/Aric have a very realistic chance of moving up to the front and leading some laps. I wouldn’t bank on that for cash games, so I would use them as studs here and take any lead laps as a bonus. You can use them as dominators in tournaments, though.
Johnson has a ton of history here and the Chevy camp has made huge strides over the last handful of races. He starts 20th and offers a solid floor with a decently high ceiling. I like the other two just a tick more, but all three are viable in all formats today.
Denny Hamlin is pretty good here but this will be his first start from the pole.
Tournament approach
Tournaments are the same as usual; eat some chalk and make a few GPP pivots. There’s no need to go crazy and make a lineup full of GPP pivots because NASCAR winning lineups generally have a fair amount of chalk in them at most tracks. This is one of those tracks. Get a little daring, but don’t get carried away!
Lineup construction is the same as cash, but feel free to run three dominators instead of two (on DraftKings that is…stick to one or two dominators on FanDuel). Like I mentioned earlier, be sure to eat some dominator chalk here, because it’s very likely that at least one of them winds up in the winning lineup today.
GPP dominators
There are plenty to choose from today and I like them in this order; Kyle Busch, then Truex, then Larson, then Logano/Keselowski/Kurt, then Aric/Elliott/Blaney, then Jones/Johnson.
One note on Jones; he had been cheap enough in previous races that I liked him as a GPP stud pivot starting from about where he is today. Unfortunately, that’s not the case today. He’s expensive enough that he needs to do more than just finish in the top-10. He needs to lead some laps, and probably about 30-40 of them at the minimum.
Johnson is the most interesting of the bunch, even though I put him last. We all know that he and the other Chevy cars have improved a lot and that he’s dominated here before. Today could be the day he has his “out of nowhere” dominator performance, so be sure to have a little bit of exposure to him in tournaments!
GPP value drivers (under $7k)
My favorites here are Menard/Austin, then Buescher, then Ty.
Menard finished 16th here the last two races and that was with a much slower car than what he has today. Both he and his team have made a ton of improvements over the season, and he’s got a pretty good chance of being in the winning lineup today. He’s my favorite GPP value pivot on the board. Austin has shown top-10 and top-5 potential here and that can’t be ignored, especially not for $6,600. He’s a very close second favorite today.
Buescher has finished 17th twice here, and while that’s not going to win a tournament, the fact remains that we like him at these longer, high-banked tracks. This isn’t quite a 1.5-mile (where I love him), but there’s plenty of speed here and he could very well sneak into a top-15 finish today. Depending on how others do, that would put him on the borderline of being in the winning lineup. If he manages a top-12 or better (which isn’t impossible), he’ll easily find his way in.
Ty has raced here once in the Cup series (last year) and managed to finish 13th. I don’t expect a repeat performance, but that simply can’t be ignored today…not for $5,400. Any top-20 finish would have him in the conversation of the winning lineup today, and he’s certainly capable.
Ragan is next in line. He’s raced here 11 times and has had a pretty decent year. He hasn’t had any crazy finishes here lately that would set off any alarms, but he could definitely sneak into “winning lineup contention” with a top-15 or so.
After that, it’s Kenseth for basically the same reason as Ragan (though he has more experience here than Ragan does). He doesn’t have quite the car this time as he’d had in the past, but could still manage a strong finish if things go his way. He’s worth sprinkling around into a few lineups.
The four down low (Cassill, Lajoie, Chastain, and McLeod) can be used as a super-punt but I don’t expect them to have some crazy finish today. Still, you can sprinkle them around in hopes that they do. Remember that Chastain was in a top-tier car yesterday. That’s NOT the case today, so don’t expect him to dominate or anything like that!
The others don’t excite me a lot. Allmendinger hasn’t shown anything special here, Wallace was mediocre in Xfinity and hasn’t raced here in the Cup series, and McDowell has a really bad history here (in half of his six races here he wound up finishing 40th or worse).
GPP value drivers (above $7k)
We have a few neat options here this week; Bowman, Byron, and Newman all start in the top-10 and most people will auto-fade them. However, it’s not impossible at all for them to finish in that same range, and if any of them do that they will likely find themselves in the winning lineup. I wouldn’t go crazy heavy on them, but don’t fade them like the rest of the crowd either. There’s a pretty decent chance that at least one of these three gets a surprise finish today!
Surez is right behind those three. He has a slightly higher ceiling but he might also be more popular, which is why he’s here. Either way he’s a great GPP pivot and has just as good of a chance of being in the winning lineup as those three do.
Stenhouse doesn’t excite me a whole lot but has the capability of surprising us with a top-15 finish. I wouldn’t go heavy on him, but he makes a decent pivot today.
GPP studs (above $8k)
Blaney is the only one I’ll point out here (already covered the rest earlier). He’s raced here three times and finished 30th / 31st in two of those races. Quirky tracks like these tend to be his kryptonite, so be careful with him. Still, he has a high ceiling starting 21st, so I wouldn’t flat out ignore him. Just be careful.
Aaaand that’s going to do it for this one. Good luck today!!