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Holding the Midfield – A Deep Dive into Bookmaker’s Odds for EPL Gameweek 5

Welcome to the newest feature in the DFS Army soccer… arsenal. This article will dive into the odds given to us by the bookies to see if what they are telling us is what should be. I have been working on a model to show us the probabilities of the potential outcomes. By using that data to test the oddsmakers, we can see where the various values lie. The ultimate purpose of the article is to see where we can exploit this data for DFS purposes. Remember to check Sniper’s Slide Tackle for some player picks. The odds I will be using will be taken from Ladbrokes.

 

Before I begin, a quick note. If I don’t mention a game, prepare as you would. I’m not gonna take up your valuable time by saying the books got it right.

Huddersfield v Crystal Palace

The bookmaker has set the odds for the under on 2.5 and the model is even stronger on that position, 7.67% stronger. The odds on 1.5 goals is set to the over but the model does not take as strong a stance on the over on 1.5 as the oddsmakers (6.09% more on the under). The model doesn’t stop there. It like Crystal Palace to win 15.28% more than the odds and likes the negatory on both teams to score 11.5% more than Ladbrokes. Everything points to another sad day for Huddersfield and their fans.

Newcastle v Arsenal

The biggest thing to note here is that the model likes Arsenal to win a moderate amount (9.08% more) greater than Ladbrokes. Nothing really sticks out in terms of the other numbers.

Chelsea v Cardiff

The model shows up as 17.67% less than the books that Chelsea scores 2+ goals. Now that still leaves them with a 56.05% chance they score 2+ goals but that just lends further credence to what Sniper said in slack about making sure you get a piece of City and Chelsea. The model is taking a stronger stance than the books on only Chelsea beating the keeper (8.38% more).

Man City v Fulham

The model has this match as a coin flip… on the total of 4.5. The model’s over is 12.48% greater than the books. Yea it’s gonna be chalky but doing what you can to get attacking pieces of Man City is a strong way to start your lineups. As an added bonus, the books like only City to score, but the model is leaning towards both teams scoring. For those GPPs, maybe a fulham one-off, if you are feeling particularly lucky.

Watford v Man United

I know that Man U has taken steps in the right direction and they got that win over Burnley, but that’s exactly what the bookies are trying to sell. The model disagrees and thinks the books are playing off the public. Until Watford shows me they are ready to fall off and Man U shows me they can string together a good game, especially on the road, I am going to side with the better form. This is the strongest play on the board according to the numbers. The model likes Watford 29.67% better than the bookie. It does like both teams to score and the over on 2.5 goals. This sounds like a tough game and pieces from either side are viable considering it’s the late game of the day and pricing may be limited.

 

That’s it for this inaugural edition. I will see everyone in slack.