Welcome back to another Saturday of UFC fights. This time we are in Moscow. This is the 1st time there has ever been an event in Russia. With the card being in Moscow remember lineup lock is in the morning. This card is very interesting from a draftkings perspective. Constructing cash and tournament lineups is a lot more challenging this week. I will have the fights grouped up the best I can. But, honestly there are several tournament plays that are viable in cash as well.
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As always have some fun in tournaments. Just remember the Golden Rule! While chasing after the big payout is enticing always remember bankroll management. I am a firm believer in the 80-20 rule. Which is 80% of your allocated bankroll for the night in cash games and 20% in tournaments. Remember to take advantage of our Research Station and Domination Station. Plus check out the our podcast, and follow me on Twitter (@MMACashAssassin) for the latest MMA and DFS Army news! Let’s break down these fights.
For those of you new to MMA here is a breakdown of the scoring used on draftkings.
DFS MMA UFC Fight Night 136 Fighter Advice
Fights to Target In Cash
First off before I give breakdowns here. What we are looking for in cash games is safety with a nice floor. It might be taking a high priced favorite in a good spot. It could also be a value play based on odds and pricing. Often times in cash I will look to stack a fight specifically if it has the potential to go 5 rounds (always the main event on card or a championship fight). Now both sides of a fight may not be cash viable in a fight at least 1 of them is under this group.
Dvalishvili (-500) 9.2k vs Ware (+435) 7k
Dvalishvili is an aggressive fighter and a solid wrestler. He has excellent takedowns (TD’s). Ware is ok overall. He is a solid boxer with a decent jab. Vegas is liking this fight to go to decision (-245).
For cash games I am not going to get cute here. I think the best idea is to stack this fight. Dvalishvili has a huge ceiling (he averages 8.5 TD’s per fight). Ware lands at a high enough rate (5.18 significant strikes per round). When I am considering a stack in cash I look for 120+ draftkings points combined. I believe we will get that and then some.
In tournaments Dvalishvili is 1 of my favorite plays on the entire card. Ware I am very little to no exposure to.
Taisumov (-475) 8.9k vs Green (+420) 7.3k
Taisumov is athletic and a solid wrestler (2.17 TD’s per fight). He is a solid striker (3.21 SS’s per round) and has good power. Green is an ok grappler and a decent striker (3.57 SS’s per round). Depending on your lineup construction in cash you can go 1 of 2 ways here.
- Use Taisumov. He has great odds and a solid Inside The Distance (ITD) prop of -120. Not to mention almost all of his wins have come ITD. Plus with his wrestling he has the ability to rack up points on draftkings that way.
- Use Green. There honestly aren’t a ton of dogs to target on this card. We are forced to make some difficult decisions if we want to pay up for the high priced favorites. He is a viable option.
I am personally leaning towards option 1. But, I won’t fault you for going with option 2.
Now for tournaments my preferred play is Taisumov for the reasons I stated above. I will also have exposure to Green as well. Overall this is a fight you should have exposure to both fighters. Not a fight I will have 100% exposure to overall.
Yan (-1000) 9.5k vs Son (+800) 6.6k
The odds speak for themselves here. Yan is most likely ending this early (-205 ITD). I love him in all formats. The only issue is he is the highest priced fighter on draftkings. If you have the salary for him I have no problem with plugging him in. Just remember he needs to score higher than anyone else to end up in the optimal lineup. Son I am fading completly.
Hunt (-125) 8.6k vs Oleinik (+115) 7.6k
Before I give my thoughts here. All week I kept telling myself I was avoiding this fight in cash. Unfortunately it’s late Friday night and Oleinik is looking like a cash value punt.
Hunt is a good striker and has big power in his hands. Oleinik is a decent striker. Where he is strongest is his excellent submission game. In cash its Oleinik or pass for me. Currently I am still considering not using him in my cash build.
In tournament’s you need to have some good exposure. This has the highest odds to end ITD on the entire card -735. My preferred play is Hunt. Oleinik is so cheap I will have plenty of exposure to him as well. Most likely I have my exposure around 60-40.
Krylov (-150) 8.2k vs Blachowicz (+140) 8k
Krylov is a solid striker (6.55 SS’s) and has good power. Blachowicz is a tough fighter and a decent wrestler. He is a solid striker (3.79) and has good submissions. Blachowicz has been on a roll as of late and putting up solid draftkings scores. The odds might not dictate it but, I think Blachowicz is a solid play in all formats. I just can’t ignore the run he is on. Krylov is the favorite and only priced at 8.2k so, in tournaments I will have exposure to him as well.
Johnson (-250) 8.7k vs Yandiev (+230) 7.5k
Johnson is moving down a weight class for this fight. He is a decent striker and a good wrestler. Yandiev is coming into this fight from a 3 year layoff. He is a decent striker and has decent power. Other than Green. Yandiev is the lowest I would go for a cash punt not counting the stack I talked about earlier. It’s not because I think he wins per say. It’s just salary relieve to pay up in other spots.
In tournaments I will have some exposure to Johnson. Just not a ton. There are fighters I think have more upside above and below him. Yandiev is a punt I will have some exposure to as well.
Fights to Target in Tournaments
Unlike the cash fights from above. These tournament fights carry greater risk. While they may have a lower floor these fights have higher ceilings. Which when mixed with the right amount of cash plays can yield huge dividends in tournaments.
Emeev (-620) 9.3k vs Sekulic (+515) 6.9k
Emeev is solid overall. He is a good striker and has solid TD’s. Sekulic is taking this fight on short notice (1 week). He is aggressive and an ok wrestler.
Vegas is slightly leaning on this fight ending ITD (-130). For 9.3k on draftkings and an ITD prop of (+114) I am not liking Emeev a ton in tournaments. At his salary he needs a 1st or 2nd round finish to make value. I will have some small exposure to him in case he does but nothing more. Sekulic is only in play if you are building 20+ lineups just to differentiate your build in a few spots. Overall not a fight I will have much exposure to.
Ankalaev (-450) 9.1k vs Prachnio (+400) 7.1k
Ankalaev is a solid striker (3.94 SS’s) and has solid ground and pound. Prachnio is an aggressive fighter. He is a decent striker and has ok power.
Ankalaev is coming into this fight having tapped out with 1 second remaining in his previous. I think many people will remember this and avoid rostering him on draftkings. I am fine with that let them! Ankalaev makes for a solid tournament play and at his odds is even playable in cash. Prachnio doesn’t interest outside of a tournament punt.
Murtazaliev (-160) 8.4k vs Dollaway (+150) 7.8k
Murtazaliev is a decent striker and has good leg kicks. He is also a decent grappler. Dollaway is a UFC veteran. He is a decent striker and has good TD’s (3.58 per fight).
Murtazaliev in all likelihood wins this fight. But, if Dollaway can turn back the page and get his wrestling going don’t be surprised if he pulls it out. Overall this is a fight I will have exposure to both. Mainly just because of the price range they fall in.
Kunchenko (-560) 9k vs Alves (+475) 7.2k
Kunchenko is a good boxer and has good power. He is a solid wrestler and has good TD’s. Alves is a veteran of the octagon. He is a solid striker and has ok power.
Vegas is liking this fight to end early with an ITD prop of (-195). If it’s ending early its more than likely going to be by way of Kunchenko (-135 to win ITD). I think Kunchenko makes for a strong tournament play and is another fighter who can be considered cash viable on draftkings as well. Alves I will probably have in 1-2 lineups just in case he pulls this off. Plus he is so cheap.
Most Fade Worthy Fights on Card
Abdurakhimov (-135) 8.3k vs Arlovski (+125) 7.9k
Both of these to fall in that sweet spot in the mid-range. If you need to use 1 of them for your last spot that’s fine. I am just not forcing either in my lineups. My preferred play is Arlovski is my preferred play mainly because he is cheaper.
Khabilov (-750) 9.5k vs K. Johnson (+600) 6.7k
Khabilov is just $100 less than Yan on draftkings. I would much rather pay up to him with his better finish prop. Johnson isn’t in play for me at all. I don’t see a path to victory for him at all here.
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