Good morning MLB DFS players and welcome back to the Wednesday edition of Dr. StrangeChalk. We have a 1o-game main slate tonight and as always, I’ll be trying to assess where we think the ownership will end up and what we want to do with the potential chalkier plays.
For our purposes in DFS, the “bomb” refers the “chalk bomb” which is a player we often force into our lineups because they seem like “the can’t miss play” of the night, only to watch them come up short. The goal of this column is to give you some pivots from these popular plays.
I wanted to address something in here today about playing MLB in September. I absolutely think you should continue to keep playing MLB until you can’t play anymore! Many guys will stop playing now that NFL has begun, but I believe there is still an edge to be had if you do your homework.
One thing you should know by now is MLB is full of variance, and the September call-ups, tired arms, rest days for starters on contending teams are only going to complicate things, not simplify them. That is why I don’t really play any cash games in MLB after mid-July. I think it pays to be bold and contrarian in GPPs at this point of the season more than ever. Attack a chalky pitcher or stack up a perceived “bad team” that might be hot. And if you’ve been playing MLB all season, you know the players, teams, and trends to look for on a nightly basis.
Main Slate Pitching
CHALK! Carlos Carrasco vs. White Sox
Carrasco is really the only ace on the slate tonight and has one of the best matchups on the board. If you were playing cash games, you could justify just clicking on him and plugging in value. But this is a GPP column and I think there’s pretty easy case for fading him and saving the salary to use on bats.
Walker Buehler vs. Colorado
Buehler? Buehler? Sorry, wrong Buehler, but this kid as fun to roster as Ferris was to watch back in the 80’s. The uber-talented youngster is a full 1800 less than Carrasco tonight with a comparable ceiling and probably lower ownership. Buehler gets to face the Rockies at home tonight and is coming off a masterful 8-inning, 9-strikeout performance against the Cardinals in his last start. I have no problem making him my #1 tonight based on his price/upside/matchup.
Robbie Ray vs. Chicago Cubs
Ugh…you know it’s not a great night for pitching when I recommend Robbie Ray. I am an avid Robbie Ray fader, but it’s hard to ignore him today at his price point (8700 FD, 9200 DK). He has a massive K-rate and therefore some serious strikeout potential against the Cubbies today. We saw his teammate and fellow lefty Patrick Corbin have some success against them the other night, and the matchup will likely scare some DFS players off him. I’m going to get some exposure tonight and hope he doesn’t walk a ton of guys and then give up a big home run (which is what always makes me nervous about him).
Felix Pena vs. Oakland
I’ve been riding Pena for a few weeks now. The matchup is a little dangerous with Oakland having some solid power in the lineup, but Pena has strikeout upside tonight and park factor working in his favor. It’s hard not like Pena though, considering how reliable he has been over the last starts (6 or more innings in each, between 28-43 FD points).
Robbie Erlin vs. San Francisco
Robbie-E is probably my favorite point-per-dollar play on the entire slate. I love picking on the Giants when we can, and I also love rostering Erlin in good spots as often as possible. Erlin’s has an elite 2.5% walk rate and a solid 46% ground ball rate. The Giants also have the 5th lowest team total on the board. Erlin stands out as a tremendous value as he is a much more reliable pitcher than any of the other guys in the bargain price range.
“It’s a Trap!” Play of the Night: Chris Archer vs. Kansas City
I know Archer is rated highly by the RS today, but Archer feels like a trap. I was off Jameson Taillon last night based on the Royals being a hot offense and was totally wrong, but I am sticking to my guns and recommending that we stay away from attacking the Royals with Archer tonight. Archer just hasn’t shown the upside in Pittsburgh that we are used to from his days in Tampa. FADE!
Main Slate Hitters
CHALK! Cleveland Indians vs. Dylan Covey AND Milwaukee Brewers vs. Matt Harvey
Two pitchers that DFS players love to pick on are Covey and Harvey. I think the Indians and Brewers are likely to be very popular tonight based on those matchups and their 5+ implied run totals. One way to leverage ownership might be to pick your favorite guy from each stack (Jose Ramirez and Christian Yelich, for example) and then fade the rest of that team.
Sneaky Stacks!
Cincinnati Reds vs. Gio Gonzalez
I love picking on Gio. There was some talk that he had ‘figured it out” after getting traded to the Brewers when he pitched six shutout innings against the Giants in his first start with his new team. Then he promptly went out and walked four batters and didn’t make it out of the 5th inning against the Pirates in his next start. I’m firmly in the “Gio Gonzalez is not, and has not been a good MLB pitcher for some time” camp and I love using the Reds righties to pick on him tonight. Give me the red-hot Jose Peraza, noted lefty-smasher Eugenio Suarez, and up and coming youngster Philip Ervin (profiled in my article on Monday) as the core of my Reds stack.
Yankees vs. David Price
Okay, this one is not sneaky at all. Everyone knows the Yankees have owned Price during his career. The BvP against him is nuts. But maybe they overlooked a little bit by the masses since they have the 11th best implied-run-total today and the perception by the public is that Price is an elite pitcher. Give me a Yanks righty stack tonight for all the monies.
Baltimore-Toronto game stack
I love picking on Marco Estrada. The dude has served up more homers this year than McDonald’s served hamburgers. Yet, some will consider him as a pitching option because we usually target the Orioles lineup for strikeouts. I’m looking at the right-handers for Baltimore mainly (Mancini, Beckham, and Jones) as Estrada has some reverse splits and an extreme fly ball tendency. And the game is at hitter-friendly Camden Yards, too!
I really like this young Blue Jays offense. They can score in bunches and Baltimore starter Jimmy Yacobonis has not shown much ability to get hitters out at the major league level. I’m going right back to the Jays bats tonight and using both lefties and righties from throughout their lineup to complete my stacks.
Alright Army, that’s all I got today. I hope this info helps you build a GPP winning lineup tonight! Always trust your gut and never hesitate to take some risks in tournaments! If you ever have a follow-up question from the article, just hit me up in my slack channel. Good luck!