Happy Tuesday, DFS Army! Today I’d like to continue to what I started yesterday and highlight some up and coming young players you need to be considering on a nightly basis in September MLB DFS, and then, of course, I’ll take a look at tonight’s 14-game slate.
The Young Bucks
Dean is a toolsy player who’s been up with Marlins for about a month now. He has struggled a little out of the gates but was hitting .326 at AAA with 9 homers before being called up. Despite being a right-handed hitter, all three of his MLB home runs have come off righties, not lefties so he hasn’t shown the typical platoon splits.
Urias is currently injured but was getting a decent amount of playing time and hitting up in the San Diego order. He is a prospect who is highly regarded for his glove and relies on making a lot of contact to get on base. He was hitting .296 this season in AAA and also hit .296 in AA the year before. He’s not a power guy at all but did hit 8 dingers at AAA this season. He projects more like an Omar Vizquel type player than say, Manny Machado…
Alcantara is one of my featured pitchers today and the first pitcher to make this list. He was a highly regarded prospect in the Cardinals organization who came to Miami in the Marcell Ozuna deal last offseason. He throws 97-100 MPH with his fastball with good movement but has struggled with his command throughout his minor league career. The early results have been good this season since being called up and if he can learn how to locate his pitches, he should be a guy we can target for strikeouts and run prevention as he has a nice groundball ratio.
Lowe has been up for a while with the Rays and has shown some nice pop in his bat with 5 homers in only 109 at-bats. He has struggled to make contact consistently, but Tampa seems like they want to give him a chance to play every day and he even hit 5th last night in the order. He was hitting .300 at AAA with 14 homers so he’s definitely got the power/average combo we are looking for in DFS.
Laureano made a big splash right off the bat with Oakland after being called up this summer. He made an amazing catch in left-center and then wheeled around and threw a guy out back at first base in one of the coolest defensive highlights in MLB this season. His bat has been impressive, too, as he’s hitting for average with some power, too (5 home runs). He was an excellent thief in the minors with 100 stolen bases over the course of 4 years, and that trend has continued as he has 5 steals already as well. He’s been hitting leadoff for the Athletics and make a nice cash play on most nights.
Ervin did see a little action last season, but most of his MLB experience has been in 70 games with Reds this season. He’s been up with the big league club alot longer than most of the other prospects on this list, but is probably still very well-known in the DFS community. He a nice power/speed combo going and gets to play half of his games in Cincy’s homerun friendly environment. He’s stolen over 30 bases three different times in the minors, too. He usually gets the call when the Reds face a lefty and has been slotted in the 5 or 6 hole in the order.
Tonight’s Pitchers
Wow, this is one of the more loaded pitching slates we’ve seen in MLB in some time. With a lot of high-priced aces today I am going to be pretty picky as to which of them I decide to run out there in my lineups.
I am going to cross of two of them right off the bat. Corey Kluber has the best matchup on paper, but the Indians really don’t need to win tonight because they have the Central division virtually locked up. As the highest priced pitcher on FD, we would need Kluber to go deep into the game and rack up big time K-numbers tonight and I worry that Cleveland may limit his innings to keep him fresh for the playoffs. I’m not paying top dollar for a stud pitcher that may not have a ceiling in this game. If Kluber is chalk, I’ll be happy to let others eat it and use one of the other pivots I like better.
The other guy I will quickly cross off my list is Clayton Kershaw. While the game is at home in Dodger Stadium, I still think the Rockies lineup is pretty dangerous against left-handed pitching and as a team, they have historically done better than most teams against Kershaw in his career. I just don’t see a huge ceiling from Kershaw tonight, especially if manager Dave Roberts doesn’t let him pitch beyond the sixth inning (which he is notorious for doing).
The three elite arms that I am considering tonight are Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, and Steven Strasburg (in that order). You could argue that Snell has been the best pitcher in baseball in the second half of the season, and the numbers back it up (1.40 ERA, .163 batting average against, 61 strikeouts against only 9 walks!). I love the matchup for Snell as he gets to pick on the Rangers, a team that is vulnerable to left-handed pitching. The Rays let Snell pitch 7 innings in his last outing and have no motivation to limit him at this point if anything I think they let him go as deep as he can so he can make his case for the AL Cy Young.
Aaron Nola has dominated the Mets throughout his career and is a full 1300 less than Kluber today on FD. I hope his last outing keeps people off him today because I’ll happily take Nola in this matchup even with the Mets lineup being decent and the game being in homer-happy Citizens Bank Park. Nola has been that good, fire him up with confidence today.
Steven Strasburg is in a good spot today against the Marlins on the road. The Nationals need a win badly to keep their playoff dreams alive and so they will likely lean on Strasburg tonight to get them a big win. He’s had some success against the Marlins this season and should be able to pile up some strikeouts tonight. He and Nola would be my picks for cash games, while I still feel Snell is the elite GPP option.
Bargain Hunting
Sandy Alcantara vs. Washington
I highlighted Sandy in my rookie write-ups. He’s pitching at home in a good pitchers’ park and has gone 7 innings in each of his last two starts allowing only 2 runs combined. People will shy away from him given the matchup, but I absolutely love him as a pivot off Strasburg in the same game.
Jake Odorizzi
This is mainly a price-based play today, as I am not usually a big fan of Jake “the snake.” He’s the best sub-7k option on the board tonight for me as he faces a dismal Tigers team and happens to be coming off one of his best starts of the year against the Yankees. All you’re hoping for here in 30+ from him so you can cram in some expensive bats.
Tonight’s Bats
Arizona vs. Mike Montgomery
I love using the D-backs against mediocre lefties. They’re at home tonight and their implied run total is only middle of the pack so they could be overlooked. Give me some shares of Goldschmidt, Souza, Escobar, and Pollock. And maybe even Nick Ahmed! Love this D-back righties stack.
Toronto vs. Dylan Bundy
“Grandpa Bundy” as our former colleague Al Walsh used to call him has had a season to forget as he has now given up 38 home runs on the year! Toronto hammered him in their last meeting to the tune of 10 hits and 7 earned runs. I love the lefties in this matchup the most, and Toronto has some great options there with Kendry Morales, Billy McKinney, and Justin Smoak at the top of my list.
Tampa vs. Yovani Gallardo
Today is the second day in a row that the Rays have the highest implied team total on the board! After they burned a lot of people yesterday, I think many will hesitate to go back to them today, but not me! Texas is rolling out the corpse of Yovani Gallardo and has a crap bullpen to throw at Tampa after he comes out. I’m happily going back to my Rays stacks tonight with Ji-Man Choi being my favorite bat to build around.
Atlanta vs. Austin Gomber
Don’t get me wrong, I like Gomber as a good young pitcher (almost made the list of prospects I had earlier in the article) but not in this matchup today. Atlanta is an elite offense against lefties (.337 team wOBA) and could put up a crooked number on Gomber and the Cards today (like the Dodgers did to him in his last start). My rule with Atlanta is never to ignore the lefties just because they’re facing a lefty (Gomber also happens to have a slight reverse split going). Freeman and Markakis should be included in your Atlanta stacks!
That’s all I have for you today! Good luck in your contests and may variance be with you tonight!