What’s up DFS Army? It’s late Saturday night and I just got the data for our first correlations matrix. I’ve been so excited to crunch this data and give you any kind of edge for your contests that I am staying up well into the night to get something out. You can check out the Matrix for yourself here, but be careful, Neo, if you take the blue pill you can never go back.
This matrix is going to show us who the best stacking targets should be from each team SHOULD be. As with any DFS sport, there’s a ton of variance in NFL and it’s not always optimal to use the highest correlated players from each team as they also tend to be the chalkiest stacks. I’m not 100% sure how much these week-one simulations were influenced by previous seasons, preseason data, or other factors but I do know that they going forward they are going to incorporate both this year’s data and the game simulations (projections) as well.
If you are new to NFL DFS, check out the Boss’s tutorial on the Matrix here as he talks a lot about how correlations work and what to look for when crunching the data. I’ll do a lot of that in here as well each week.
The “no shit these are some obvious pairs” Chalky Tier
Watson-Hopkins: .50
Brady-Gronk: .48
Big Ben-Antonio Brown: .48
Dalton-A.J. Green: .45
Drew Brees-Michael Thomas: .41
Phil Rivers-Keenan Allen: .42
Kirk Cousins-Stefon Diggs: .41
Not a lot of surprises here, as we have only one new set of teammates here in Cousins and Diggs. We do know that Cousins did favor Diggs over Adam Thielen (.40) in the preseason and has more big-play upside. Kyle Rudolph should be on your radar for Vikings stacks as well as he carries a nice .32 correlation with Cousins and we know how Captain Kirk liked to use Jordan Reed in the past.
The Watson-Hopkins and Brady-Gronk stacks will be very chalky as that game is projected to be high scoring and suck up a lot of ownership. If you’re looking to pivot, consider that Will Fuller has a pretty solid .30 for Houston and Chris Hogan comes in at a very respectable .28 for the Pats. If you’re looking to stack a RB with each of these highly projected QBs then Lamar Miller (.09) and James White (.16) would be the best choices. White is likely to get most of the passing down work for the Pats and the word out of Houston camp is that Lamar Miller is supposed to be a true 3-down back this year.
Big Ben is known for being bad on the road and the weather in Cleveland is supposed to be terrible tomorrow so most players will probably fade that stack and play James Connor instead. I’ll probably still have some AB shares especially if we think he’s going to be really low owned.
Andy Dalton and AJ Green are getting a lot of hype this week as they face a bad Colts secondary. If you had to be different, then consider Tyler Eifert (.31) who has always been a great red zone target when healthy for the Bengals. Adding T.Y. Hilton to that Bengals stack might be a good idea as he carries a .12 correlation with Dalton and gets his old buddy Andrew Luck back under center.
Brees to Thomas is such a safe stack to use that I’m considering it in cash games tomorrow. With all the uncertainty surrounding the rest of his receiving core, you’re really taking a wild guess as to who else to stack him with. Ted Ginn has a .33 correlation with Brees but could see his targets decrease with the addition of Cam Meredith (.26). Alvin Kamara comes in at .08 which tells me you really shouldn’t be stacking him with Brees unless you’re doing it in cash games just to get access to all the Saints scores. But Mike Gillislee is looming as a potential TD vulture which is one of the reasons I plan to be underweight on Kamara. It would make more sense to stack Kamara with the Saints D (.11) than with Brees and hope that the Saints dominate early and pound the ball in the second half.
Phil Rivers and the Chargers offense should be able to put up some points in a potential shootout with Kansas City. Obviously pairing him with Allen is the smartest and safest thing to do, but if you think the Chiefs can score with the Chargers then consider running it back with Travis Kelce (.10) who should be Mahomes top target. And if you think the young Chiefs QB is going to make some mistakes on Sunday, then I’d rather use a Melvin Gordon-Chargers defense stack (.16) and hope that Gordon racks up a couple scores on the ground with some short fields off turnovers.
The “Could be sneaky if you have the balls to go there” Tier
Eli Manning and all of his toys
I’ve been hearing a lot this week about a Leonard Fournette-Jags D stack (.12) which is really the only Jags stack you should be considering based on the data. But I want to point out how highly correlated Manning is with each of his primary offensive weapons. Odell Beckham (.44), Sterling Shepard (.35), Evan Engram (.30) and Saquon Barkley (.11) should all be in play if you have the guts to pick on the Jacksonville defense. I think it would be a very contrarian move, but one that carries a ton of upside at low ownership. And if you think the Jags offense might struggle and they fall behind, a Barkley-Giants D stack carries a nice correlation as well (.15).
Dangerous Denver Duos
I really like the Broncos this weekend at home against Seattle. Their new QB Case Keenum has solid correlations with both Demaryius Thomas (.38) and Emmanual Sanders (.31). Seattle’s D is no longer the “Legion of Boom” and Keenum should be able to hit plenty of short and immediate routes to his two main receivers on Sunday. I’m using Sanders in cash for his safety, but Thomas always carries a ton of upside for tournaments. I think Royce Freeman emerges as the guy you want in the Broncos backfield, so while Devontae Booker shows a .13 correlation with the Denver defense, I’ll be using a Freeman-Broncos’ Defense pairing in my tournament stacks instead since I think he is the guy their most likely to pound between the tackles if they get an early lead.
Capable Cardinals
Another team I am going to be targeting tomorrow is the Arizona Cardinals. Their stacks set up really nicely as the only major change is Sam Bradford stepping into Carson Palmer’s position at QB (ok, that’s a pretty major change!). Palmer was declining badly the last few years, and while there’s plenty of skepticism surrounding Bradford coming off his injury the offense is set up for him to succeed with plenty of short throws and game management-style quarterbacking. Bradford’s best correlation comes with Larry Fitzgerald (.42) and the aging WR showed last year he still has plenty left in the tank. I am loading up on David Johnson in cash and GPP in his first game back from his wrist injury. A Bradford-Johnson stack (.14) isn’t a bad idea based on how involved DJ is in the passing game and a DJ-Arizona defense (.14) also carries the same correlation.
Other Assorted Observations
NAKED QBs
There is one game I have no idea what to do with and it’s the Dallas-Carolina game. One thing I do know, and the Matrix confirms, is that if you want to play Dak Prescott or Cam Newton you should probably consider rolling them out “naked” meaning without a correlated teammate. Cam doesn’t have any teammates with a .3 or higher correlation and if you’re rostering him it’s probably because of his threat to run a few in with his legs. Dak, on the other hand, has three receivers who all have correlations in the low .30’s but none of them are guys you really want to play that badly (Williams, Beasley, and Hurns). In my opinion, both of these guys are likely to spread the ball around to a bunch of different receivers while having just as good of a chance of running for more TDs than they throw.
GOOD CHALK?
Alex Collins and Baltimore defense (.16) is looking more and more like serious chalk, especially with some bad weather expected in Baltimore. Personally, I am using both in cash games but just remember there are plenty of other pivots for GPPs if they look like they’re going to push 20+ ownership. The Bills’ offense and defense are both bad, but the Ravens may not dominate them the entire game and Nathan Peterman is never going to throw 5 interceptions again (now watch him throw 6 tomorrow, ha!)
Remember the Titans?
I had to put one last tidbit in here about Tennessee or my pal @dfsupnorth would unfollow me on Twitter. If you’re as high on the Tennessee offense as Josh is tomorrow (honestly, sometimes I wonder what else he is high on…) then you really should be stacking Marcus Mariota with his favorite 50-year-old tight end Delaney Walker (.31). Rishard Matthews also has a .32 correlation and a good history with Mariota, but his role is really in question right now as he’s still recovering from last season’s injury and youngster Corey Davis (.26) has emerged as the #1 WR for the Titans.
That’s all I was able to pump out tonight guys for you. I would use the Matrix and my notes to confirm the plays you were already sure about and maybe move you on or off a few plays you were on the fence about. Trust the research you did all week. Next week we will hopefully have access to all the data a little sooner in the week. Good luck Army, let’s get that money!