Good Afternoon! We have a full 15 game slate tonight, which I love because it means that we can find an edge over those people that are going to spread themselves way too thin and try to get a piece of every offense that they like.
Before we get into tonight’s slate, I want to touch on a question I had from a user in slack.
This is actually an extremely important question. Mainly due to the importance of how I view different stats in baseball. So let’s look at one of my sneaky stacks for tonight and break this down.
So I really love Toronto tonight. Mainly because I usually stack against Tanaka in Yankee Stadium. Yes, it burns sometimes, but being a GPP player, it’s usually very low owned, and when he blows up, it’s a massive blow up.
So the first thing I look at is the ‘xwOBA’ column. These numbers are from statcast and it tells me exactly how a player is seeing the ball over the last 14 days vs. the handedness of the starting pitcher they are facing. League average, depending on the slate, is typically around .330 or so. This stat is based on Launch Angle and Exit Velocity. It tells us exactly what a player SHOULD be doing. It’s what the hitter can control. Hitting the ball hard. It also takes defenses out of the equation, which for me, is huge considering that the game today has a massive amount of shifts in it. Next, the ‘wOBA’ column tells me exactly what the hitter’s results are. This doesn’t take defense out of the equation. It’s purely based on results…a bloop single counts exactly the same as a line shot single hit at over 100 MPH. The last column, ‘Diff’ is how I pick guys that the public might be off due to recency bias. I never look at game logs from a fantasy points perspective for players, and hardly ever for hitters.
So, looking at this, I see that Travis, Smoak, Morales, Pillar, Hernandez all have xwOBA’s that are above the league average. Out of these 5, 4 of them have positive differentials between their xwOBA and wOBA. This is where you can pick off lower owned guys in a lot of situations that nobody is seeing.
Now, this is only one piece of the puzzle, but to me, it’s a very important piece.
Let’s dive into tonight!
PITCHERS:
- Max Scherzer – I’m skeptical here because Scherzer has had games against the Braves where he’s been bad by his standards, but make no mistake about it, he’s got the highest ceiling on the slate tonight. He’ll give up a couple runs, probably even by the HR. He’ll also rack up the K’s in bunches though. He’s pitching for pride right now and to make one final push at the Cy Young again this season.
- Walker Buehler – Dave Roberts…let this man pitch! I think he’s honestly underpriced on FanDuel and is still a great option on DraftKings tonight. He’s been the best starter not named Clayton Kershaw on the Dodgers, and they are making a push for the division. The Cardinals are not a team I like to pick on, but you can’t deny the upside with the way that Buehler has the ability to go out and shut down an offense for 6 innings. However, the Dodgers bullpen is still shaky, and so even if he leaves the game with the lead, then the Win bonus could be lost late in the game.
- Gio Gonzalez – I’ve had to look over this hard because the numbers don’t add up in my head. I also had to be reminded that he was traded and only has had one start with the Brewers so that is a huge reason why it looks off. His last start, 5.2 IP and he did it with ease. The Pirates are coming in to try to play spoiler but I trust Loosmeister on this one with the way he looked his last start. Seven k’s and only one walk is great. We’re looking for him to continue that sort of dominance again tonight.
- Robbie Ray – This is strictly an ownership play with upside going into face the Astros tonight. They don’t see him on a regular basis, so I give the advantage to Ray here. He can get us to around 8 strikeouts, and limit the damage. What we’re looking for here is a lot like what we are with Buehler, we want the quality start, and to give us the chance for the win bonus. I’m not holding my breath though when it comes to getting those points because of how bad the Arizona pen has been in the second half.
Others: Jack Flaherty, Cole Hamels, Noah Syndergaard, Jose Berrios
FADE: I know a lot of people will gravitate to Jorge Lopez tonight. I get it. Really, I do. He’s thrown 2 games this month, pitched 7 innings in one and 8 in the other. He’s mid tier pricing and has shown the ability to shut down this Minnesota lineup. HOWEVER, I say this all through the season, I VERY RARELY play guys who are facing the same team in back to back starts unless they were dominated the first one. His last start, on the 8th of September, 8 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 1 ER, 4 K. I’m fading Lopez tonight.
STACKS:
New York Yankees
Stanton is only in play for me tonight because of his BvP against Marco Estrada. Who by the way, in 8 games at Yankee Stadium, has allowed 14 HR and holds a 5.79 ERA despite being 4-0. I love me the Yankees tonight and they’re all in play for me so be creative by including some of the guys in the lower part of the order in your stacks.
Chicago White Sox
This is one of my favorite’s tonight…even though they aren’t seeing the ball well outside of a couple of hitters, they get to go into Baltimore tonight. We’ve had a ton of success all year targeting that pitching staff.
New York Mets
In the time that I’ve been writing this article, the Red Sox have gone from one pitcher to another but everything remains the same. It’s a bullpen game for Boston tonight. If there is one shaky part of this team that has already racked up 101 wins on the season, it’s their pen. I feel we’re going to see Drew Pomeranz at some point tonight fairly early. Beat the Bookie has the Met’s as the biggest positive differential from what Vegas has in their implied run totals tonight. The middle of the order is where I’m focusing tonight.
Chicago Cubs
I’m hesistant because of the travel that has happened for the Cubs over the last couple days that this could be a let down spot for us tonight. This is my least favorite stack, and depending on the lineup that Joe Madden puts out, I could just forgo them all together.
Washington Nationals
Gausman has been bad to right handed hitters recently and the middle part of the Nationals line up is finally hitting like we thought they would all season long. Trea Turner has stolen base upside, and so I really like the 2-5 stack on FanDuel and on DraftKings, adding in Zimmerman if you are making them your main stack tonight in some lineups.
Toronto Blue Jays
We talked about the Blue Jays earlier, so you know where I stand here. Even though Smoak has a negative diff, his xwOBA is still high enough that I’m not worried about that at all. Combine that with the short porch in Yankee Stadium, and we have a great low owned stack for tournaments tonight!
GAME STACK: I don’t normally like stacking the first game of the night right off the bat…but there is a lot of potential here to get a chalkier stack with a lower owned stack that could blow up.
Bonus:
I always play Nolan Arenado when he faces the Giants. He’s my one off play of the night if you can afford to play him. His numbers against the Giants since coming into the league are absolutely sick. I know people are going to think it’s mostly at Coors, but that’s why we always get him at lower ownership when he’s in AT&T. He holds a .293 avg, 16 doubles, 10 HR, and 33 RBI’s with a .899 OPS in San Francisco. He loves hitting against them even away from Coors.
GOOD LUCK!