Good Afternoon! We have just over a week left in the MLB Season, and there are still some things to be decided before we get into the playoffs. My tip for you if you’re still playing MLB DFS, take it extremely easy! There are a number of things that happen in games now with the rosters being expanded to 40 that can be extremely unpredictable!
Like as we speak, Rich Hill has been scratched and Ross Stripling is now taking his place. This is the same Ross Stripling that is being stretched out currently and hasn’t pitched into the 5th inning since being put back into the rotation. He threw 72 pitches his last start against the Cardinals, so he should be around 90 tonight.
Ok, so the teams that have something to play in the American League are the Astros, Yankees, Rays, and Athletics. In the National League, it’s the Rockies, Dodgers, Cardinals, Brewers, Diamondbacks, and Phillies. I point this out, because they are going to do what they can to win the game. This is something I take into my decision making process this time of year, but it’s not the only thing. If I’m afraid that a player is only going to get 2 AB’s and then get pulled because the team doesn’t care if they win or lose, then I’ll probably move off that player depending on price. It’s not the only thing I take into consideration, but it is something that I am very aware of this time of year.
Pitchers:
- Jacob deGrom – deGrom is by far the best pitcher on this slate tonight. He’s also pitching for the Cy Young. He’s about as close to a lock for a quality start as you can get every time he takes the mound and even though the Nationals aren’t striking out a ton right now, we know that he has double digit K upside.
- German Marquez – German has just two games since the end of June where he’s not performed the way you’ve wanted him to. His last start, he still had the quality start, but the K’s weren’t there against the Giants. The other start? Against the Diamondbacks in Arizona. That was in July though. He just ran through this lineup in Coors Field and I expect this game to be a lower scoring closer game tonight as well. He can approach double digit K upside when on, and his xwOBA is the 3rd lowest on the slate at .278. Combine that with the projected D-Backs lineup K% at 22.21% and this could easily be the second highest scoring pitcher on the slate tonight.
- Wei-Yin Chen – Chen is back in Miami where he loves to pitch. He’s also facing the Reds who don’t really strike fear into the hearts of anyone lately. He’s a great SP2 option on DraftKings along with Ian Kennedy
- Luis Castillo – We’ve seen both ends of the spectrum with Castillo this year. We know the advanced stats project him to be an elite strike out pitcher, but he suffers from either lack of concentration, or control at times. If we get word that Castillo is going to be chalky, I won’t touch him. If he’s going to be lower owned, then I’ll have plenty.
- Gerrit Cole – I kind of had to be talked into this one a little bit and here’s why. First, Cole is more expensive then German Marquez on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Second, he’s not pitching any deeper then the 6th inning any more. It’s a great matchup, and he’s a fine play tonight since he can wrack up the strikeouts and that seems to be all the Angels are doing the last 14 days against right handed pitching. I just can’t get to the point where I’m paying for him in a ton of my lineups over Marquez except to mix up my exposures a little bit.
- Ian Kennedy – So Kennedy tonight get’s the Detroit Tigers. Who he’s had some pretty good success against this season. He’s cheap, and on DraftKings, i’ll be mixing him and Chen in lineups as my Sp2. Detroit over the last 14 days has a 24.08% K rate, and their projected lineup xwOBA is under .300 tonight. There are a few guys that can get him, and he won’t pitch much deeper than 6 innings, but if he can just continue to do what he’s been doing, then he’ll be a great option tonight.
- Wild Card – Shane Bieber – So I don’t normally do this, but the Red Sox just clinched the American League East last night, and Trevor Bauer is only going to pitch 2 innings with Bieber coming in after. I don’t expect the Red Sox to throw out their starters so this could be a great place to take advantage of lower ownership in what could be a good matchup. I like the play more on DraftKings tonight outside of FanDuel because I don’t like the idea of giving up Quality Start points right off the bat. It’s risky for sure, but I have to mention it because it’s in my head.
Stacks:
- New York Yankees
So with the Athletics making that push, the Yankees need to continue to push as well in order to host the American League Wild Card Game. I will have the Yankees and Rays as my primary stacks in the Domination Station tonight and will work the other 3 stacks I have listed around them.
- Seattle Mariners
The only reason that Seattle is above Tampa here is that there are a couple glaring spots in their current lineup that I want to try to avoid. I am not touching Dee Gordon or Jean Segura tonight, and will be trying to limit my exposure to Denard Span as much as possible. It’s going to be riskier because Gordon is cheap, but I would rather play Ben Gamel for a little cheaper.
- Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays have the largest differential from Vegas to our Beat the Bookie MLB Models tonight. They are my third stack on the board but I will have them as one of my primary stacks for that reason alone. I love the pairings of Pham, Choi, Wendle, and then Kiermaier and Bauers. On FanDuel, I probably will save Wendle as my one off in some lineups and just go with the other 4.
- Toronto Blue Jays
I included the Blue Jays here mainly because I really like the matchup for Justin Smoak along with Grichuk, Pillar, Jansen and Diaz. These are the 5 I’m sticking with as much as possible.
- New York Mets
Ok, so If the Mets can’t score tonight against Joe Ross who’s working his way back from Tommy John surgery, then they have issues. They should be playing to make Jacob deGrom the no doubt Cy Young award winner in the National League. Conforto, Bruce, Frazier, Nimmo are our main targets here. If Dominic Smith is in the lineup tonight, I don’t mind him in there if you need the salary savings on FanDuel. I’m going to do everything I can to pair up the Mets offense, with deGrom as my pitcher.
GOOD LUCK TONIGHT!!!!