Hi there! I’m Glen but I go by Blande and you can find me on twitter as @DfsBlande . I’m here over at the DFS Army with coverage of WNBA and now Tennis. If you are not yet an Army member, join us over here for the greatest coverage in the industry on not just Tennis, but other sports as well. Use the link here and promo code “BLANDE” to get 10% off your subscription.
This is my first article on DFS Tennis and as you’ll clearly be able to see, it is still a work in progress. The model the article is based on just recently got completed and back-tested. That said, there is still more work to be done on the formats of these articles and hopefully in the future making projections available in an easy format. For today though, the format of the article is simple. I’ll go through each game and write about the model prediction and how good of a play the players are. At the end of the article, I’ll break down the players into the best category they fit into based on the model predictions. The model projections for each player are in parenthesis beside their names. Let’s get started!
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Zopp vs. Lestienne
Lestienne basically hasn’t played on the ATP Tour circuit. He has one previous game which was a loss. This makes it impossible for the model to get a sense of what he brings. As a result, there is no prediction for this game, and the information we have is not adequate enough to judge how it turns out. Vegas appears to love Lestienne over Zopp here, but it might be wise to just sit this game out.
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Basilashvili (40.535) vs. De Schepper (40.902)
This is as close as you get when it comes to predictions. The model basically has this game going either way, but importantly this could signal a hard-fought low scoring affair between these players. It should be noted that the naked projection favored De Schepper by a wider margin which significantly shrunk as the player characteristics and odds information was added into the mix. This is one of those times when the best play is to follow the trend of the model and go with the favorite play Basilashvili.
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Humbert vs. Tomic
There’s no information for the model here. Humbert is a rookie making his first appearance on the ATP Tour circuit. Tomic has been around the block for about three years and has the experience on his side. Vegas favors Tomic here and I’m leaning that way as well.
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Bachinger (51.186) vs. Munar Clar (39.193)
The model has Bachinger winning this one. All four models used in the process are in sync here with a persistent nudge towards Bachinger. Add in the fact that Bachinger is favored by Vegas as well and you have a good play right there.
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Herbert (51.861) vs. Albot (33.271)
Herbert is the pick here. The original naked model had Herbert favored by just 6.7 pts, but as more information was added, the gap just kept increasing. Herbert makes for a strong play here and is also supported by Vegas.
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Tsonga (56.705) vs. Gojowczyk (41.602)
The model loves Tsonga to come out the victor here, and normally I’ll be all for it. Except, we have a special case on our hands here. Tsonga last played a match in early February and has been out since then with an injury. This is his first game back, and we could see some rust from him. Vegas clearly expect Tsonga to be rusty as they have him as an underdog in this matchup. That said, Tsonga is a much better player than Gojowczyk and I expect him to win, but you are best off fading this game. Let’s watch how Tsonga performs in this one before making up our minds on him.
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Struff (44.556) vs. Rublev (45.6)
The naked model had Struff winning this one by a close margin, but when other information was included, it flipped. The models pick is Rublev. This is expected to be a close game between the two. It could easily go either way and I see it ending as a low scoring game for DFS purposes This is a place to avoid, but if you need to pick someone in this range, go for Rublev.
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Medvedev (50.417) vs. Sousa (40.964)
The model clearly loves Medvedev here and he is the favorite. Medvedev makes for an excellent all format play today and could easily be one of the top performers on the slate.
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Lacko (36.685) vs. Baghdatis (56.234)
We get the most lopsided model prediction here. Baghdatis is projected to win and to significantly outscore Lacko. This is an excellent spot to begin your cash rosters. Baghdatis should be one of the top scoring players on this slate.
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Miedler (49.942) vs. Dzumhur (57.21)
This is the battle between the highest and least priced player on the slate. We can clearly see that the Dzumhur is favored here by the final model. An interesting piece of information here is that the model actually preferred Miedler here when individual performances were taken into consideration, but no odds data included. Also, notice that Miedler projection is higher than most of the players on this slate. While you might not want to use Miedler in cash since the probability is high that he loses, he makes for a sneaky GPP play. This is a play for those making multiple lineups. Just like Geek usually says with MMA, always find a place to play the cheapest player on the slate.
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Berrettini (48.257) vs. Garcia-Lopez (38.943)
The model likes Berrettini here and this is a good spot for him. Vegas likes Berrettini as well lending further support to the play. Berrettini has a good history in his wins, making him a solid play for all formats.
PLAYS
Cash: Baghdatis, Herbert, Medvedev, Berrettini, Tomic
GPP: Dzumhur, Bachinger, Tsonga, Rublev, Basilashvili, De Schepper
GPP Punts: Miedler, Zopp