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SINGLE-GAME SHOWDOWN
NEW YORK YANKEES @ BOSTON RED SOX (-108) – O/U: 9
* Starting Pitchers *
NYY: Masahiro Tanaka – R (9-2, 3.84 ERA/1.05 WHIP this season)
It seems like we have a team trying to avoid the sweep every Sunday night, and this one is no different. The Yanks have looked overmatched most of this series but Tanaka could give them a much-needed boost here. Over the last two starts (@TB, vs BAL), he’s allowed only 6 H/3 BB/0 runs with 17 Ks over 15 innings. That’s the good news. The bad news… in two starts against the Red Sox this season, Tanaka has gotten beat over the head for a 1.84 WHIP/10 runs/4 HR over 10.1 innings.
BOS: David Price – L (11-6, 3.97 ERA/1.22 WHIP this season)
Price and the Yanks go together like lamb and tuna fish. In four of his last five starts against the Evil Empire, Price has failed to reach double-digits (FAILED TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS!!!!!!!) on both DK and FD- what’s interesting is that the misnomer in that grouping went for 33.8dkp/58fdp. It’s all good, I’ve seen dogs step in shit before. There are some serious issues in this matchup, but the good news is that Price will avoid the wrath of Gary Sanchez, who is 6-for-12 with 5 HR against him.
* Pitching Synopsis *
This is a gawwwgeous night if you’re an MME player… hell, even I might have to get in with just more than one. On one hand, we’ve got two pitchers who come into this meeting in excellent form. But on the other, there’s a history of them getting lit up like Rockefeller in December.
My best guess tonight is to roll with Tanaka over Price… after all, that narrative of teams trying to avoid the sweep has been a time-honored tradition that has worked for us numerous times on Sunday nights this season. I could, however, envision a scenario where just bats and the combo of bats/relief pitching give us the best path to success. Hence, why this is a such a great MME night… so many different possibilities of how this game could play out, and the Vegas moneyline/total doesn’t really offer a helping-hand either.
* Bullpen Pitchers *
NYY:
Used in yesterday’s game
– Chad Green (1 inning)
– AJ Cole (1 inning)
I’ll be keeping it pretty simple with the Yanks bullpen tonight. The closer Aroldis Chapman hasn’t pitched since the Stone Age (Tuesday), so whatever is next the level above well-rested is, that’s where he’s at.
Dellin Betances is in the same boat, not pitching since Tuesday- if we think the Yankees are going to win tonight (which I do), there’s a good chance that he or David Robertson enter the game in the seventh or eighth inning.
BOS:
Used in yesterday’s game
– Craig Kimbrel (1 inning)
If we think the Price is wrong (looking at you, Bob Barker), we’ll certainly see the Red Sox bullpen early and often tonight.
Craig Kimbrel is the Red Sox closer, and I doubt we’ll see him unless they’re trying to close out the game. I feel like the Yanks have a better chance of winning, so I’m not as high on him.
Joe Kelly (4 innings, 0.75 WHIP/0 runs, 2 Ks over L7), Heath Hembree (3.1 innings, 0.60 WHIP/0 runs, 5 Ks over L7) and Matt Barnes (2 innings, 2.00 WHIP/0 runs, 5 Ks over L7) all have numbers that we’re looking for in this contest. I would bet that we see each of these guys if Price gets rocked all over Fenway.
* Bullpen Synopsis *
I’ve said it many times and then had it backfire on me yesterday with Yonny Chirinos of TB, but I still don’t think it’s wise to pay more than $3.5k for bullpen arms. The long-relievers (which we could see randomly) at the elevated price don’t have a specific time to enter the game like set-up guys, so paying up for that kind of uncertainty is not something I’m willing to do over the course of time.
* Lineups *
NYY:
1) Aaron Hicks – S
* Possible MVP candidate on FanDuel… switch-hitting/stolen base ability puts him in a totally different tier than all other Yanks bats.
* .407wOBA/.360 ISO in 120 PAs vs lefties this season… .436wOBA/.429 ISO vs lefties over L14
* .391xwOBA/.198 ISO in 170 BBE vs sinkers (Price’s most-used pitch) since 2016
* 7-for-27, 2 doubles, 2 HR, 3 BB, 7 Ks vs Price
2) Giancarlo Stanton – R
* Obviously Stanton’s massive power makes him a viable MVP candidate on FanDuel… you’ll get no argument from me there
* Team-leading .466wOBA/.366 ISO/1.140ops numbers vs lefties this season
* .437wOBA/.270 ISO vs sinkers in 209 BBE since 2016
* 5-for-13, double, triple, 0 BB, 3 Ks vs Price
3) Didi Gregorius – L
* One of the best left-on-left hitters in baseball over the last two seasons… not having the platoon advantage could get him a slightly-lower own%, but I think enough people know about this now that he won’t be a super-sneaky play.
* 8-for-23, double, 2 HR over L6
* 13-for-30, 3 doubles, HR, BB, 3 Ks vs Price
4) Gleyber Torres – R
* Possible MVP candidate on FanDuel – Yuuuuge fan of Gleyber Day in this matchup vs Price… he’s got a massive .633xwOBA/.571 ISO/53% HC-rate against sinkers in 54 BBE since 2016
* .418wOBA/.294 ISO in 77 plate appearances vs lefties this season
* 1-for-2, HR, 0 BB, K vs Price
5) Miguel Andujar – R
* .260 ISO vs lefties this season
* Numbers aren’t great against sinkers, but I do love his pull-swing for Fenway Park… certainly capable of going yard tonight, whether that’s against Price or someone from the bullpen
* 1-for-2, single, 0 BB, 0 Ks vs Price
6) Luke Voit – R
* Solid value play with HR upside… looking to make a name for himself with his new team
* Good numbers in limited BBE against sinkers
* Never faced Price
7) Brett Gardner – L
* History isn’t great here, with only 1 XBH in nearly 60 plate appearances… if he does damage, it’ll likely be against the bullpen later in this game
* 13-for-49 (.265avg), triple, 7 BB, 9 Ks vs Price
8) Austin Romine – R
* Could be that sneaky value guy on both sites, not a bad hitter at all
* .426wOBA/.200 ISO vs lefties over L14
9) Shane Robinson – R
* Not big on Robinson, plus he could be the guy that gets subbed-in for late in the game
BOS:
1) Mookie Betts – R
* Horrendous day at the plate yesterday with 3 Ks. Doesn’t mean that he can’t bounce back tonight… after all, he does have a .447xwOBA/.217 ISO over L14 vs righties.
* 8-for-36, 3 doubles, HR, 2 BB, 4 Ks vs Tanaka
2) Andrew Benintendi – L
* .308avg, team-leading 5 runs and 2 SB over L6
* 5-for-18, double, 2 HR, 2 BB, 2 Ks vs Tanaka
3) Steve Pearce – R
* Massive 2 games with 4 HR before getting yesterday off
* 5-for-15, 2 HR, BB, 6 Ks vs Tanaka
4) JD Martinez – R
* 6 XBH (5 doubles, 1 HR) over last 6 games – .348avg/1.160ops
* 7-for-14, 2 doubles, 3 HR, BB, 4 Ks vs Tanaka
^ By far, the best numbers of any Red Sox vs Tanaka’s repertoire of pitches. If you’re going heavy Yanks tonight, JD is the one Red Sox bat I’d want to make sure I have… chalky or not.
5) Xander Bogaerts – R
* Low .203wOBA/.088 ISO vs righties over L14.
* 10-for-35, 2 doubles, HR, 2 BB, 6 Ks vs Tanaka
6) Mitch Moreland – L
* 3-for-14, HR, 5 Ks over L4… the HR came in yesterday’s game
* 5-for-21, double, 2 HR, 2 BB, 4 Ks vs Tanaka
7) Eduardo Nunez – R
* .348avg over L6… but he does have a low .276xwOBA/.176 ISO vs righties over L14.
* 3-for-15, double, 0 BB, K vs Tanaka
8) Brock Holt – L
* 3-for-22, 2 doubles over L6
* 6-for-25, 3 doubles, 0 BB, 3 Ks vs Tanaka
9) Sandy Leon – S
* 2-for-14, double over L5… did have an RBI double in yesterday’s game
* 3-for-10, all singles, 0 BB, K vs Tanaka
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