Welcome to the Shark Autopsy Report MLB Edition! Over the course of the remainder of the MLB season this article will deconstruct winning FanDuel lineups of contests where the dark waters of GPP contests are ripe with sharks. Navigating these waters where the sharks smell blood in the water is not easy, but the DFSArmy have you covered, providing you with the essential daily tools to help our VIPs turn into sharks! The article will be released twice weekly, with each day’s article looking at either single entry or multi-entry GPP contests. Each contest requires a different lineup construction.
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In this edition of the Shark Autopsy Report, we venture across the DFS site landscape and look at a true shark’s lineup creation on DraftKings. DraftKings lineup construction is different from that of FanDuel’s lineup construction. DraftKings requires players to select 2 pitchers, a catcher, first baseman, second baseman, third baseman, shortstop, and 3 outfielders. In contrast, FanDuel’s lineup construction requires players to select only 1 pitcher, a catcher or first baseman eligible, second baseman, third baseman, shortstop, 3 outfielders and a utility player (which can be any hitter from any position playing on the slate).
DraftKings’s $300K Monday Swing for the Fences Contest
A little bit about DraftKings $300K Monday Night’s Swing for the Fences contest, 58,823 entrants paid $6 per entry to compete for the opportunity to win the top prize of $100,000.
A Deadly Shark Takes thy Prize!
The winning lineup was employed by anilprao88, and if you are new to DFS, you may not know the screen name. But, anilprao88 (or akhmedsbunny on FanDuel) is a deadly shark, he’s currently ranked as the 15th overall player, 18th ranked Tournament Player of the Year, 13th ranked MLB player, and the 1st overall heavyweight ranked player per RotoGrinders rankings. During the 2017 NFL season, anilprao88 took 4th in the coveted DraftKings Fantasy Football World Championships.
Top 10
Winning Lineup – Anilprao88
Anilprao88’s lineup consisted of two lower owned pitchers in Derek Holland and Edwin Jackson. Holland was touted throughout the course of the day on Monday as being a solid play in the mid-tier range. Jackson was a pitcher who flew under the radar, and has had solid stats over the season and the last 14 days at home coming into the contest and produced 5 Ks, a win on 3 hits against for 23.15 DK PTs. Anilprao88 had 4-man Texas stack of Chirinos, Odor, Choo and DeShields, he also had a 3-man Atlanta stack of Freeman, Camargo and Acuna.
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Dissecting Pitching
Over the last 14 days on the road, Derek Holland has pitched well versus both sides of the plate as compared to the season on the road. Versus LHBs over the last 14 days on the road, he has seen an 81 point decrease in wOBA, 47 point decrease in ISO, K-Rate has increased by 14.4%, GB% has increased by 32.6%, and LHBs are neither hitting the ball in the air nor with hard contact against Holland over the last 14 days. More of the same has taken place for Holland versus RHBs on the road over the last 14 days. These are great statistical differentials and played out in his favor on Monday night as he K’d 5 batters, even though he didn’t get the win.
As a member of DFSArmy, you get access to an amazing staff of coaches, and if you are not reading ChoppoDong’s Chop’s Chin Music, Thunder Dan’s Dr. StrangeChalk, and Mdellagnese’s Painting the Black weekly pitching articles then you are on an island by yourself, as these MLB pitching articles are top notch.
Onward we march to who was the Shark Autopsy Report author’s favorite play on Monday’s pitching slate, Edwin Jackson. If you were to look at Edwin Jackson’s season stats and last 14 days at home stats you’d notice some negative regression. But, when you factor in the last 7 days at home stats, he has improved his pitching from his last 14 days stats, showcasing that he righted the ship prior to Monday’s start.
Putting Hitting Under Scrutiny
A 2.5% owned 4-man stack of Texas hitters led the way for Anilprao88’s winning lineup amassing 81 DK PTs. There was a posting in slack by DFSArmy coach DFSnDonuts that warned in tweets against utilizing Robbie Ray and looking at Texas bats against him:
If you had heeded his advice and attacked Robbie Ray as Anilprao88 did, you may have been sitting on top of the leaderboards in your tourneys. A look below, we can see where Ray has been susceptible over the last 14 days at home coming into Monday’s slate. He’s had better success versus LHBs, but versus RHBs he’s been brutal.
Coming into Monday night’s game, Chirinos had been ripping the cover off of the ball on the road versus lefties. His wOBA was 714 points higher than on the season, his ISO was 1,064 points higher, his WRC+ was 489.38 points higher, and he was hitting everything in the air and hard. What a great combination for a GPP takedown!
The 3-man Hotlanta stack anilprao88 employed of Freeman, Camargo and Acuna performed very well scoring 42 DK PTs at 11.4% ownership. On the season at home versus LHPs, Freeman and Camargo have been hitting very well. Hitting the ball for power, hard and getting lift on the ball.
Then came Jose Ramirez and his 2 HR blasts on the night power anilprao88’s lineup! Jose was dialed in on his first two bats of the night versus Ervin Santana! Jose has seen positive regression over the last 14 days on the road versus RHPs prior to Monday night. Though his power numbers slightly dropped, he has seen increases in his wOBA, WRC+, FB% and HC%, while reducing his GB% by 17.5%.
MLB can be a very frustrating sport in DFS with the extremes in variance, a hitter might be in a prime spot with amazing platoon splits or reverse splits against a gas can pitcher with woeful platoon or reverse splits and go 0’fer. Even the best in the sport (Mike Trout) go 0’fer on most nights, it’s the way of the sport. But, you need to be able to determine your process and keep the process consistent daily. When you veer away from that process you tend to produce, over the long haul, inadequate to poor performances and your bankroll is affected in the same token. Just Keep Grinding and working on your process and good things will come!
DFSArmy’s MLB coaches and staff works diligently each day on helping improve their members process, and in the same breathe refining their own processes to each daily slate. The DFS landscape is every changing and being a part of a great DFS community helps you to better manage your DFS game and become a better player!
To put a bow on this for you and conclude this installment of the Shark Autopsy Report, there are so many statistics in MLB that it can be overwhelming as a DFS player. Know that you don’t need every single statistic there is to determine whether or not a player is a good play. Determine which stats within the Research Station provide you with the best information to make optimal decisions, read the DFSArmy coach’s MLB articles (Dong Detector, CeeGee’s Stacks, Chop’s Chin Music, Painting the Black with MDell, Walsh’s Wingmen, ThunderDan’s Dr. StrangeChalk, ThunderDan’s Weekend Covering All The Bases, Jaguar Lou’s GPP Jamboree and the Donut Shop by DFSnDonuts), utilize the DFSArmy’s evolutionary taking the industry by storm Domination Station Optimizer and we will help you become a better DFS Player!