Every week of the year the PGA Tour plays on a new course. There are some examples in other DFS Sports of environments impacting performance, such as Coors Field in Baseball; Golf, however, offers an entirely unique environment each and every week. This article will break down the week’s PGA course and attempt to find what skill sets are needed for success. This article will then combine the course breakdown with the DFS Army Domination Station and give a few players to target in both Cash Game and GPP formats. For more updates throughout the week follow me on twitter @_bschnarr
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The PGA Championship Review
Dustin Johnson – T27 – 81.5 DK Points
DJ started off great and looked to be in a terrific spot heading into the weekend at 7 under. Despite the great start DJ was unable to put it together on the weekend and finished 6 under for the tournament. I wrote up DJ as a play depending on where ownership would be and as the week went on I struggled with figuring out just where DJ will end up. I thought with Rory being talked up by many and being slightly cheaper that the 2 of them would come in right around 20% which made DJ a target of mine.
Jordan Spieth – T12 – 87 DK Points
Despite struggling with ownership among other top end players it was relatively easy to see that Spieth would be low owned. Despite not showing much form, I think anytime you can get a top end player under 10% owned you have to take a serious look at them. I personally used Spieth in 20% of line-ups.
Brooks Koepka – Justin Rose – Jason Day
While I saw JT in this group also, these three stuck out to me as underpriced studs. I wrote up how I liked all three while also liking lower owned pivots in the same range (Molinari, Rahm and unfortunately Reed). My point with all three was that they can be great plays but understand they will be highly owned and find a way to differentiate your line-up elsewhere.
Tony Finau – T42 – 81.5 DK Points
Speaking of needing to differentiate your line-up elsewhere, Tony Finau was the highest owned player across GPP’s with nearly 40% ownership across major contests. Finau was an obvious play and although he gave everyone who rostered him a nice scare on Thursday, his ridiculous 10 birdies on Friday secured a spot on the weekend and a solid DraftKings performance for owners.
Paul Casey – MC – 16.5 DK Points
Casey was a lock for me that I just could not get away from. I included Casey in both my cash line while using him in 25% of my GPP’s for the week. As the week went on and it became pretty apparent that Tony Finau would outmatch Casey and ownership I become even more into the idea of playing a lot of Casey.
Keegan Bradley – T42 – 64 DK Points
I really liked how certain stats for Keegan were popping off of the page heading into the event and felt that he was a great play to include in GPP line-ups and on the shortlist for cash games. I figured Poulter and ZJ would be the chalk of the price range and I liked using Bradley as a way to differentiate with an already chalky line-up with a player who was set up for success.
Kyle Stanley – MC – 29 DK Points
Although it was a little hyperbolic to suggest Stanley could be the highest owned player of the week his near 12% ownership at a $7100 price tag made him a chalky play. I wrote up how I think there were great pivots at the same price and I ended up going to Luke List (MC) and Russell Knox (T35) as pivots at the same price range.
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Wyndham Championship Preview
The Wyndham Championship takes place at Sedgefield CC, a 7,127 yard par 70 – much shorter than what we just saw. The course has traditionally played as one of the easier events of the year despite only two par fives. We have traditionally seen the winner right around -20 with Si Woo Kim and Henrik Stenson winning the past 2 years at -21 and -22 respectively. This event is also the last tournament before the Fed-Ex cup playoffs begin and we see that reflected within the field as many top names are taking the week off and plenty of players right around the cut-off to continue are out there teeing it up.
Sedgefield CC features many short par fours with only three measuring over 450 yards. With two less par fives there are 2 more par fours for the week, targeting players that have had success, both historically and recently on these types of holes can payoff big for the week.
Over the years the biggest indicators of success at this event have been Shots Gained: Approach and Greens in Regulation, both will be stats I want to target this week.
Finally, upon first look at the salaries there are many standouts as values that I do not think will necessarily garner high ownership because of their name recognition. I will definitely be looking for these plays that I think or underpriced, allowing me to pay up elsewhere while still feeling comfortable with my line-up and the ownership of the players in it.
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Interesting Plays
Webb Simpson – DK: $11600 FD: $12200
The highest salary for the week on both FanDuel and DraftKings is coming into an event he has traditionally dominated in solid form. Dating back to 2010, Simpson has only finished worse than 22nd twice and has 5 top tens and a win in that stretch. This course rewards the strengths of Webb’s game and with a less than stellar field traditionally it is no wonder Webb has dominated here. We should expect to see Webb highly owned despite the expensive price tag. I definitely want shares of Webb but am still unsure at tis point how I will proceed for the week.
Hideki Matsuyama – DK: $11300 FD: $11900
Barring injuries, at this time last year I would have been shocked to think that we would see Webb priced above Hideki. To say Matsuyama has struggled this season would be an understatement. However, I could see a similar ownership situation with Hideki that we just saw with Spieth and for that reason I think Hideki is interesting with the second best opening odds to win for the week.
Joaquin Niemann – DK: $9700 FD: $11100
Niemann put together four mediocre rounds this past week on his way to a T71 performance that in no way stands out. I’m hoping this helps lower Niemann’s ownership as I like him as a GPP play for the week. I think the things we have seen Niemann do well this year are rewarded at Sedgefield and if he is on his game I could see Niemann contending on Sunday.
Ryan Moore – DK: $9000 FD: $11200
Moore is interesting to me because we see him underpriced on DraftKings & overpriced on FanDuel. Moore doesn’t particularly stand out to me however I think there are interesting game theory decisions to be made on Ryan Moore depending on which site you are looking at. On DraftKings he should garner some ownership given his price, on FanDuel you should be able to get Moore at a very low ownership # compared to DraftKings if he is someone you like for the week.
Chris Kirk – DK: $7500 FD: $10300
Kirk is showing up as one of our top values on DraftKings for the week. As our VIP members can see, Kirk stands out in a bunch of key metrics in relation to others in his salary range. I personally like Kirk and how he sets up for the track and I think he is a great cash game play to consider for the week.
As always, these are initial thoughts and not necessarily the plays I will be making. As the week goes on I will update my thoughts in our member SlackChat as well as discussing multiple other players and my thoughts for both Cash and GPP’s.
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