Every week of the year the PGA Tour plays on a new course. There are some examples in other DFS Sports of environments impacting performance, such as Coors Field in Baseball; Golf, however, offers an entirely unique environment each and every week. This article will break down the week’s PGA course and attempt to find what skill sets are needed for success. This article will then combine the course breakdown with the DFS Army Domination Station and give a few players to target in both Cash Game and GPP formats. For more updates throughout the week follow me on twitter @_bschnarr
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The Northern Trust Review
Brooks Koepka – T8 – 94 DK Points
Brooks was one of my favourite plays of the week. Above 9K, Brooks finished 2nd in scoring and was the way to go up top. I thought the course was a good fit for Brooks despite the general public touting the event for another style of player. The playing public agreed as Brooks. Outside of JT and Webb Simpson, Brooks finished with the lowest ownership above 9k which is really surprising to me.
Tiger Woods – T40 – 58.5 DK Points
Tiger struggled mightily with the flagstick for the week and finished with a T40 finish. I liked Tiger as a play this week despite knowing ownership would be high. Although I knew the ownership would be there I was kind of hoping Justin Rose being priced directly below would take away a bit of that ownership. Although the T40 is disappointing to owners the way in which Tiger was gaining strokes does make him a very attractive play for this week.
Justin Rose – MC. 20.5 DK Points
As mentioned I thought Rose would be super chalky, as the week went on and I thought Rose would finish around sub 30% ownership I was off of him.
Francesco Molinari – MC – 22 DK Points
Molinari garnered a little more ownership than I was comfortable with for the week. Ultimately, none of that mattered as Francesco missed the cut by a wide margin. Thanks Francesco (I’ll forgive you for the major win earlier in the year).
Hideki Matsuyama – T15 – 81.5 DK Points
Hideki was well liked by the high rollers as he saw higher ownership as you went up in buy-ins in GPP formats. I liked Hideki going in thinking he would be a little less owned, and I like him going forward as his game is coming into form at the right time of the year.
Matt Kuchar – T60 – 55.5 DK Points
Kuchar made the cut but struggled to do anything on the weekend. I liked Kuchar as an option to turn it around at low ownership. While the ownership was low unfortunately the score did not come with it for fantasy owners.
DK $7900-$7700
I liked this range and the options it afforded owners for the week. I wrote up how I liked this range and liked every single play but would likely go towards lower ownership in GPP’s as a way to differentiate. That led me to Louis Oosthuizen, Marc Leishman and Alex Noren and although none of them were fantastic at least 2 of the three worked out somewhat well for me.
Course Preview
The Dell Technologies takes place at TPC Boston, a par 71 measuring roughly 7,216 yards. One thing we have seen year in and year out at this event is that the bombers are at an advantage. The course is not necessarily short, but it is in no way long either. Furthermore, the course in the past has featured extremely forgiving rough and has wider than average fairways. Overall, players are generally able to aim up the left side or the right side of the fairway and swing for the fences. If they are off the rough does not really penalize you for the extra 20-30 yards you gain so we see bombers migrate to the top over 72 holes.
That’s not to say other stats will not play into the mix, generally Shots Gained: Approach will be the most indicative indicator of success for the week. We here at the DFS Army have access to world class tools that will further break down these stats and show exactly which stats have correlated to success at this event. While reading my preview and other touts around the industries previews might help you we might very well be wrong. People lie but numbers don’t, check back with our Research Station and compare my thought/your thoughts with the numbers to ensure you are pinpointing what is important for the week.
Another stat this is more important to me than usual this week, and one I will be weighting more than usual is course history. I think the same guys have popped up at this event over the year and I really do think it is a course that lends itself to certain players having success.
One more key point this week, this event starts on Friday and ends on the Monday. I genuinely have no clue how it works in America, but Monday is a holiday for Canadians so I can only imagine it is the same in America and that’s why the event is done this way, however, as a Canadian who wants to feel important I’ll pretend its because we and only we have the holiday.
Interesting Plays
Rory McIlroy – DK: $10600 FD: $11600
Rory is interesting for two reasons; he took last week off and he has probably the best track record here despite a missed cut last season. With two wins and three top fives in the last six years Rory has shown he knows the course. I have already seen this thought persist amongst the golf community and I could see it leading to high ownership, making you think twice about your level of ownership. I think it’s too early to make an opinion on Rory but he is definitely someone I will be looking at as the week goes on.
Adam Scott – DK: $9400 FD: $10400
Adam Scott did not garner the ownership I thought he would for the week and I feel although he will see an increase this week it will still not be significant. Whether it be the cheater putter or the fact that he’s figured out the rest of his game, Scott is popping up in the top five of leaderboards.
Jon Rahm – DK: $9100 FD: $11000
After a missed cut at an event that really didn’t fit his game, Rahm sees a price decrease at a course that is set up for him to succeed. I really like the idea of going back to Rahm this week but so does just about everyone. I’m waiting to see if that thought persists throughout the week and really hoping it doesn’t so I can grab Rahm at a low ownership number.
Hideki Matsuyama – DK: $8900 FD: $11000
After being on Hideki for the T11 and T15 (thanks for not getting those T10 each way bets for me by the way…) I find it incredibly hard to talk myself off of him this week. As I mentioned earlier, I think Hideki is gaining strokes in all the right places and small adjustments or little bounces are all he needs to see himself atop a leaderboard again. My only concern is that the public has caught back on and that we see Hideki garner a large amount of ownership this week, check back into the ChalkDonkey article later in the week for that one.
Bryson Dechambeau – DK: $8700 FD: $10900
After a win, Dechambeau is a super interesting play this week. People do not give him enough credit for this par of his game but Dechambeau crushes the ball off of the tee. I always find Bryson tough to project as he is a guy I often get wrong but its very hard to not see ownership go way up after a win. I like Bryson regardless as a cash play and find him an interesting thought in GPP’s.
As always, these are initial thoughts and not necessarily the plays I will be making. As the week goes on I will update my thoughts in our member SlackChat as well as discussing multiple other players and my thoughts for both Cash and GPP’s.
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