Good morning Army, and welcome to this week’s NASCAR VIP breakdown! We’re back at Michigan today for another 400-mile run, and this time it looks like we’re clear of any weather concerns (if you recall, the last race here was shortened by 67 laps). The race starts fairly early today (1:30 PM eastern), so let’s not waste any time!
Michigan International Speedway
Let’s kick things off with the usual:
Number of dominators
Just like last time, we have 200 laps to work with today, which doesn’t put a heavy demand on dominators. On DraftKings I would go for two dominators in all formats and sprinkle in some single dominator lineups in your tournaments.
On FanDuel I would default to single dominator lineups for everything, and take any lead laps from your studs as a bonus.
Lineup correlation
No matter which way you go, be mindful of who you pair together. Chances are, two high-dollar drivers (i.e. Harvick and Busch) won’t be able to both pay off their salaries, so be careful with combos like that. Those guys have to dominate to pay off their salaries, otherwise the less expensive studs will return more value (and probably more fantasy points as well).
We have several studs starting fairly deep in the field, and due to the nature of Michigan (a pretty safe and predictable track), there’s a good chance that two or three of them wind up in the winning lineup today. The good news here is that they won’t eat into each other’s ceilings, so you can pair them together to your heart’s content (they’ll be the first drivers I go over in the cash/chalk section).
Also, if you remember from when I’ve rambled on about it before, super punts suck here because this race is all about horsepower and the quality of the car. In other words, a balanced lineup is the way to go here, and you’ll want to focus on finishing positon, place differential, and a dominator or two to rack up as many dominator points as possible.
Cash games approach
Michigan is mostly predictable and can be fairly boring to some. Those are great qualities for cash games, so be sure to hedge your tournament entries with a healthy dose of cash games!
Note: If you haven’t read my intermediate article that goes over how I build cash game lineups, you can do so here (scroll down near the end of the article, it’s under the “cash games / roster construction” section). It may seem like I’m bouncing around in this article, but that’s just how I build lineups.
To begin, let’s start with the driver’s pick list:
Chalky cash plays
Once again we have a big group of drivers starting back in the field, and that’s exactly where every cash lineup should start.
Larson, Bowyer, Keselowski, Johnson, and Elliott are all capable of a top-10 finish here and some of them could even move up front to dominate and contend for the win. They are all “cash locks” and I would get exposure to as many of them as possible. Running two ladders (or more) for your cash games would be a fantastic way to do just that, and I highly recommend doing it!
Suarez is right up there with those guys, but I’m listing him separately since he’s in a different salary range.
Cash dominators
Due to salary considerations, having some place differential, and the fact that he’s led more laps here over the last few years, Truex gets the nod for a cash dominator (of those starting near the front). Of course, you could always run one of the other two here instead, but with all the place differential/finishing position we have available from the cheaper studs, I don’t think it’ll be needed for cash games this week. However, whichever dominators you don’t take in cash, be sure to have exposure to them in your tournaments!
For a second dominator I would lean towards using those that are starting deeper in the field. You won’t need to stack Truex and Harvick, for example. A trio such as Truex, Bowyer, and Elliott could satisfy your dominator requirements without worrying about them cutting into each other’s floor/ceiling (I’m not saying those are the best three to use, I’m just using them as an example).
Cash value drivers (under $7k)
Byron makes for a great “value stud” play this week and has a fairly safe floor starting 20th. He’s in play for all formats, and if you’re running multiple cash ladders, I’d be sure to include him in at least one of them.
Chastain and McDowell make great punt options with their high floors and decent ceilings. I wouldn’t force them together in the same lineup, but if you’re running two cash ladders you could split them up. If you can only take one, I’d probably lean Chastain and invest the extra $400 in a stud.
Cash value drivers (above $7k)
Suarez!
Cash studs (above $8k)
The main five from earlier are where we should look first (Larson, Bowyer, Keselowski, Johnson, Elliott). They’re pretty much all interchangeable, with an edge going to Elliott due to him being the cheapest and starting the deepest in the field. Yes, he’ll be chalky, but these are cash game drivers we’re talking about…we don’t care about ownership here!
I wouldn’t pick him first, but if you land on him, Kurt can be used here as well.
Larson loves Michigan!
Tournament approach
As usual, the name of the game here is mixing and matching GPP pivots, and my favorite area to do that with this week will be with the studs and value drivers. We’ll touch on them a little later; for now let’s start with dominators:
GPP dominators
I recommend mixing and matching Harvick, Kyle Busch, Truex, Hamlin, and Logano for GPP dominators. Of course, you could just fade them in some lineups and use your studs here instead, since these expensive drivers will need to dominate for a while to return GPP-winning value.
Again, be careful if you decide to pair any of these five together, because it will be difficult to feed two of these expensive drivers in the same lineup (especially the “Big 3”). They will quickly be outscored by the chalky studs if they can’t dominate!
GPP value drivers (under $7k)
There are several to choose from here, and Bowman is one of my favorites. He’ll have a chance to return a lot of value if he can hold his position in the top-10. If this sounds familiar, it’s because he was in this same exact spot last week, and did exactly what I was hoping he would. Ty Dillon is my next favorite here.
Outside of that you have your normal mix of pivots available; Wallace, Allmendinger, Buescher, Ragan, Bayne, DiBenedetto, and Lajoie all make good options to sprinkle around into your lineups. Of this group I like Wallace and Lajoie the best, but they all have about the same chance of landing a surprise top-15.
I don’t like anybody cheaper than Lajoie and I recommend fading those drivers here.
GPP value drivers (above $7k)
McMurray is the stronger pivot here, but Menard is viable as well. They both have top-10 potential, though McMurray has a better chance of doing it. You could use these guys as a direct pivot from Suarez or pair any of them together (McMurray + Menard will be very risky, but if they both happen to land a top-10, you could be sweating a big win).
GPP studs (above $8k)
Erik, Almirola, and Blaney all make good pivots here. If you didn’t use Kurt (or any of the other chalky studs) in cash I’d be sure to get some exposure to them here as well. All of them are top-10 capable and could also dominate and content for a win (especially Almirola and Kurt). I love the idea of sprinkling them into your core of studs, but remember…
The idea here isn’t to load up on a bunch of GPP pivots (this goes for all of the driver groups). Rather, eat some chalk and make your pivots around them. Chances are that several chalky drivers wind up in the winning lineup (with just one or two GPP pivots sneaking in), so there’s no need to make lineups that are unnecessarily risky. Last week’s winning lineup on DraftKings had five chalky drivers and one pivot, and it was still low-owned. It doesn’t take much!
That’s going to do it for this one. See you all in Slack!