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Remember, this article is designed to get you pointed in the right direction. It’s not a slate write-up and it’s not a player picks piece. I would rather get you started, then have you interact with us in our VIP slack forums as we banter picks and strategies back and forth. Learning MLB the right way is the fastest way to grow your skill level.
DFS Army is about teaching first. This is a video breakdown covering the important parts of today’s slates….you might even get some tips as I walk through my process. Even I don’t know what I’m going to say…
August 22 slate in 25 min…..
Back to Basics
It’s always a good idea to know which teams are scoring runs and which are giving them up. I will simply sort by the last 30 days and rank the teams. Here are your top 10 in terms of runs scored and your top 10 highest team ERAs (worst pitching).
This week, we try to focus on playing the top 10 offenses where it makes sense and attacking the highest 10 team ERAs. If any of them should directly matchup, we look to exploit it pretty hard.
MLB DFS Pitching
We are always looking for the best combination of price, Vegas, strikeout upside, and matchup (ballparks, weather, etc). We will normally be looking to the top tier on Fanduel and will likely come off that a little so we can afford a decent SP2 on Draftkings. Generic rules like that always have exceptions. Be flexible. KScore is the pitcher’s strikeout potential with the opposing team’s vulnerability to striking out. The DFSA Grade is proprietary to our VIPs but will give you guys something to track in terms of a catch-all safety rating.
Main Slate Pitching Roundup
No significant weather concerns tonight.
Jack Flaherty – $9200 for a 510 KScore is solid, but being a +145 dog in Vegas hurts. I’m not sure Vegas knows what’s up today, though. The Cardinals are rolling and the only reason I see them losing tonight is if they take their foot off the gas being the 3rd game of a series in which they’ve won the first two. 50 point upside for Flaherty tonight……with a pretty solid floor.
Walker Beuhler – Flip the coin and you have another solid pitcher. I don’t like tangling with STL right now, but 482 is a solid KScore number. If correct, the -160 in Vegas should give you some confidence. Also, the 3rd game in which they’ve lost the first two is another reason you might see a Dodger win. It’s just hard to beat a team 3 nights in a row. Not my favorite pitcher, but well above Strasburg or Carrasco….or even Syndergaard.
Jon Gray – Hard to ever recommend a Coors pitcher, but here we go. $8600 is appealing as a clearance sale is to my wife. 517 KScore is boosted by an over 25% K percentage from San Diego, whom we never mind picking on. Gray keeps the ball down in Coors, and hopefully keeps things in the yard tonight. It’s not without its risk, but the upside is there. His last five home starts went like this in terms of FD points: 17, 40, 47, 64, 13. Looks like a GPP pitcher…..and that’s what he is at home. However, he did face SDP here already this season and hung a 61 on them. You have floor below 20, but you have ceiling above 60. Get that 60 for under $9000 and you are set up well with some of the value stacks and expensive bats rolling tonight. I really like Jon Gray.
REFRESH THE BASICS by thumbing through our timeless content —> MLB Strategy Articles and Tips
How about some more winning?! I change these screenshots like I change mistresses. Seriously, why are you just taking the free content? Why aren’t you in here receiving the tools, optimizer, and coaching? These guys are, and these guys are dominating the competition.
In case you don’t recognize the name, this is the same guy that has been featured winning $10k, $20k, and now $50k this year. In his previous quote, @dradt said: “I usually try to set a lineup from my own research before turning to the articles and slack chat for confirmation if I’m on the right track or to pick up on something I have missed. I have really gotten a lot out of Chop, CeeGee, and MDell’s articles that have changed the way I put together a lineup. The army in general has made me better just through the articles and research station as it opened my eyes to things I never considered before….”
As a result, @dradt has won over $80,000 in the last 3 months. You’re welcome, buddy. Note he now has an official DFS Army helmet!! @dradt has since won another $10,000 on the early August 2nd and another $15,000 on the Main August 2nd. This run is nearly unprecedented for a “normal” DFS player.
Soft MLB DFS Pitching to Exploit
I will use lower rated pitching via our Research Station to identify poor matchups. I will further use that rating to target the opposing bats where said bats also carry high implied run totals from Vegas. You will see many of these teams, with player names, featured below in the next section.
Here is an example of sorting our Research Station tool by bad pitching matchups. The Research Station cuts your research time down exponentially when you know how to use it.
Learn the DFS MLB Research Station by watching our —–> RS Tutorial
* Please just ignore DET the rest of the year. They just suck. Even if they score 25 runs in an outlier game, no one has them…..you don’t need them to win anything. I don’t care if they face Little Sisters of the Poor, I’m fading them the rest of the year. Always finding them in such quality spots is tilting me. They should be scoring more than 3.8 runs per game with all the shitty pitching in their division. Their bats need permanent spots on buses to Pawtucket. They should be embarrassed to call themselves major leaguers.
DFS MLB Bats and Stack Considerations
I focus on attacking the pitchers above, and I love it when I see Vegas supporting the cause or a high powered offense matching up with these attackable pitchers. I will then focus on the better bats within the offense and key in on our batters grading out over 75 in our Research Station. Bear in mind, I’m listing day-to-day and 10day DL guys, too. Your job is to follow the news, or plug into our Slack Channels and get the details as our slates lock for the day.
To see how we determine these offenses, see video of slate above ^^
5-Star Offenses
ARI – Peralta, Escobar, Descalso, Goldschmidt, Pollock
4-Star Offenses
NYY – Stanton, Walker, Andujar, Torres
CHC – Almora, Rizzo, Schwarber, Heyward
COL – none (there might be offense…should be….but damned if I know where it’s coming from with these crappy recent numbers)
3-Star Offenses
WAS – Eaton, Wieters, Zimmermann, Harper, Rendon
2-Star Offenses
TBR
LAA
NYM
ATL
CLE
1-Star (GPP) Offenses –
nothing special
A lot of these guys are expensive and on chalky teams. I eat chalk in MLB a lot of the time. However, I am not afraid to get away from it when warranted. I also have some value plays locked and loaded for our VIPs in our slack forums that you might be interested in noting today. But, for that, you have to be a VIP……
These are NOT specific stacks, but they make up the core of players I will be using when targeting the corresponding team. Mix and match them by making a few lineups because neither you nor I know which combo of these players will connect best tonight.
LEARN TO WHIP THE COMPETITION WITH – The Domination Station Optimizer!! We are also adding even more customized stacking with our new upgrade due out very soon!
Final MLB DFS Thoughts
For MLB cash games, keep the stacking to a minimum. You can’t afford to grab stack Rockies in Coors and have them fall flat, which they occasionally do. ISO is a great stat to look at with wOBA for hitter-friendly parks. Remember to head over to DFSARMY.com, your one-stop-shop for stats, player recommendations, coaching, winning lineups discussion, and everything DFS related. Use code CHOP to trigger a 10% discount every month as long as you remain a member regardless of any future price increases. You are grandfathered in at your rate permanently!!