Hello again everyone, and welcome to this week’s NASCAR Xfinity preview brought to you by the DFS Army! I’m your host @nillyJay and you can follow me here on Twitter to see my NASCAR and MLB content, or you can find me in our Slack channels in #nillys-garage-nas-mlb.
If you hadn’t heard by now, we had fantastic month of July around here. We had big wins ranging from $1,500 to $20,000 to $50,000, and even a pair of $100,000 winners! You can take a look at some of them right here.
We like to point people in the right direction with our free content, but the heart of what we offer lies in our VIP content such as what we discuss in our Slack channels, our research stations, and the Domination Station lineup optimizer that puts it all together.
Our $105,000 winner from Daytona on July 7th, 2018
Watkins Glen International
Three of the next four races are at road courses and we start that stretch with Watkins Glen this weekend. Compared to most of the other ones that see, Watkins Glen carries a bit more speed, which gives drivers some extra breathing room if they’re in superior equipment. How do we take advantage of that? Let’s first look at how the last five races here averaged out:
As you can see, these races have been very balanced and are not nearly as top-heavy as most other Xfinity races are. There are a few reasons for this; for one, this race only has 82 laps which puts a much lower ceiling on dominators. Another reason is because skilled drivers (in below-average cars) can stay on the lead lap and work their way forward much more easily here than at most other tracks.
In other words, this track tends to play more like a Monster Energy race, with more emphasis on some of the cheaper drivers.. Like any race, we’ll want to avoid certain ones, but we can expect some of them to play a much bigger role (for us) this week. Speaking of drivers, let’s take a look at some of those that we’ll have available this week:
Monster Energy drivers
We have a bunch of full-time Monster Energy drivers participating in the Xfinity race this week. Most of them are pretty expensive though, so we’ll have to be very sure of our choices to make sure we are getting the most out of every dollar.
Kyle Larson ($12,900) – Kyle Larson is a very talented driver, but there are a few tracks that he’s struggled at over the years. Watkins Glen is, of course, one such track. In his five Xfinity races here he’s finished 28th or worse three times and finished 15th once (he managed a 3rd place finish in 2016 though, so there is that). His Monster Energy stats look nearly identical; one good finish with three really bad ones. I love using him at most any Xfinity race, but I fear he’s going to struggle to pay off his massive salary this week.
How come Larson always qualifies so well here but stinks during the race? The simple answer is because it’s much different running a qualifying lap here by yourself than it is to run a full race surrounded by other drivers. This is something to keep in mind when researching not only here, but for every road course!
Joey Logano ($12,400) – Logano, on the other hand, has had plenty of success here. His last four races here would have scored 44.5, 70.75, 66.25, and 46 fantasy points on DraftKings. He’ll have his work cut out for him to pay off his salary too, but he has a much better shot at doing it than most other drivers will this week.
Brad Keselowski ($11,700) – Similar to Logano, Brad K has had his share of success here too. In his nine races here he’s had eight top-10s, five top-5s, and one win. He doesn’t often dominate here, but he’s shown that if he can find his way up front, he can stay there for a long time. If you decide to go after some dominator points this week, Brad K would be a good dominator candidate for you.
AJ Allmendinger ($11,200) – Allmendinger makes his Xfinity debut this year at a track he’s very well known to succeed at. Surprisingly, he’s never raced here in the Xfinity series, but I suspect he’ll manage just fine. The same question about being able to pay off a high salary can be asked about him as well, but it’s at least more manageable than those above him.
Aric Almirola ($10,500) – Almirola will drive the #98 car this weekend, the same one that his SHR teammate Kevin Harvick does. He’s only raced here once in the Xfinity series (where he finished 8th), and I suspect this race will serve as practice for him for the Monster Energy race (where he’s had very little success). In other words, I don’t expect him to be as aggressive as some of the other drivers will be, and that could limit his ceiling.
Austin Dillon ($7,700) – Austin is the cheapest of the bunch and looks to be a solid value play. At his price, a top-10 finish (which he’s certainly capable of) would return plenty of value and could land him in the winning lineup depending on where he starts.
Xfinity drivers
Christopher Bell ($9,600) – Bell has separated himself from the rest of the Xfinity group as the driver to beat this year, and he carries a massive amount of momentum into this weekend. He’s won the last three Xfinity races and will look to make it four in a row on Saturday. While I usually shy away from inexperience at these kinds of tracks, Watkins Glen isn’t as technical as some of the other road courses, and he’s shown he can dominate at pretty much any track. Keep an eye on practice times and how he fares around other drivers, but as of right now I see no reason not to play him in confidence again this week.
Justin Allgaier ($9,400) – Allgaier has a lot of experience at Watkins Glen and looks to be a solid option this week, too. He’s raced here seven times, and while he stumbled a bit his first two tries, he’s not finished any worse than 12th in five straight races here since then (three top-10s and a top-5). He hasn’t dominated here, but he’ll have a great shot at winning this week, and I think he realizes that Bell is starting to run away from him. I expect him to at his very best this weekend to try and get some of that momentum back in his favor.
Elliott Sadler ($9,200) – In a surprise move, Sadler is the cheapest he’s been all season. Maybe DraftKings finally realized that he doesn’t have enough of a ceiling to pay off a $10k+ salary, or maybe it’s just because there are so many Monster Energy studs, but either way, I think this is a good change. His history here is every bit as impressive as Allgaier’s is, and his new salary sparks a lot of interest for me. Hopefully they don’t jack him back up next week, but for now, it’s looking like he might finally be a viable GPP option.
Kaz Grala ($8,200) – Kaz makes another appearance this week, and he’s actually had some success at this track, albeit in a different series. He’s had two 4th place finishes here in the K&N Pro Series, and while that’s not the Xfinity Series, that does at least tell us he’s comfortable at this track. We know he’s been fast these last couple of months, and this could be a great opportunity for him to really shine.
Ryan Preece ($8,100) – Underpriced yet again, Preece is very talented and he gets to drive the #18 JGR car again this weekend (you know, the one that Kyle Busch drives). He’s basically a cheaper version of Bell again this week, so be sure to pay close attention to how he performs in practice.
Justin Haley ($7,000) – Like Kaz, Haley had a bit of success here in the K&N Pro Series, earning 3rd and 2nd place finishes in his two races here. He also racked up a 4th place finish at Bowmanville, which is the truck series’ closest relative to Watkins Glen. This looks to be one of those times where a young driver will try to put themselves over by having a breakout performance out of nowhere, and we’ll want to make sure to have some exposure to him in tournaments in case he does.
Driver X (lots of them!) – Research is key at Watkins Glen, but so is finding price mismatches. DraftKings went a little overboard lowering a bunch of salaries this week, and while the savvy eye should be able to spot them, I’ll have to keep them out of here in and in my Slack notes on Saturday.
And that’s going to do it for today! There are still plenty of drivers to touch on, but they will be reserved for my Slack notes after qualifying is finished. If you’re in the DFS Army, you know where to find me, but if you’re not, you should really consider joining up to get access to all of the goodies we have on the inside!
Also be sure to check out our MLB content coming out today, as well as other goodies like MMA and WNBA. We have lots of notes and research tools available for those sports too, which of course are all included with everything else we do for one low price (use promo code NILLY to drop it by another 10%). Hope to see more of you in our Slack channels soon, but until then, good luck!