Hello again everyone, and welcome to this week’s NASCAR Xfinity preview brought to you by the DFS Army! I’m your host @nillyJay and you can follow me here on Twitter to see my NASCAR and MLB content, or you can find me in our Slack channels in #nillys-garage-nas-mlb.
Another MLB winner from last night
It’s been a hot summer here in the DFS Army, with members winning in all sorts of different sports from basic cash games to our $100,000 winners and everything in between. NASCAR has been great to us too, and we look to continue our hot streak right into the next race in the circuit. It’s a unique road course exclusive to the Xfinity series, which will present different challenges with both driver selection and roster construction. I love a good challenge, so let’s get to it!
Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course
We make our annual visit to Mid-Ohio this week for another fun road course (we get yet another one in two weeks, joy!). This one will only feature the Xfinity regulars (the Monster Energy drivers are in Michigan this weekend), which means this is a great chance for them to score a victory and lock themselves in the playoffs. There are only six races remaining in the regular season, and you can be sure that a lot of drivers are thinking about that and will be trying their hardest to land in victory lane at the end of the day. For now, let’s dig into how the races have unfolded here and figure out how we can make our way to the top of the leaderboards.
Like last week, things are fairly balanced here compared to other races, but we still see a pretty decent drop-off at the backend of the field. That can be attributed to the layout of this track, which is a unique blend of tight turns and some long straightaways. In other words, this race will be a great test of both driver skill and car performance, so we’ll want to be sure to load up on those that offer both.
Since there are no Monster Energy drivers this week, we see some hefty price increases for the Xfinity regulars. Combined with the fact that there are only 75 laps in this race, that puts major importance on getting the best finishing positions and place differential bonuses from all of our drivers. It’s important every week, but qualifying will be extremely important this week, as it will greatly impact the ceiling of every driver (more so than other tracks since there are so few dominator points to go around). With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of the key drivers this week!
Xfinity drivers
Christopher Bell ($11,800) – Unsurprisingly, Bell is once again the most expensive Xfinity driver. While he can certainly pay off a salary this high, it’ll just be a question of if he’s in a spot to do it or not. Basically, he either needs to start near the back or dominate the majority of the race on his way to a top-5 finish in order to return enough value to be a tournament winner. If he starts too high and you think somebody else dominates instead, you may want to consider fading him in tournaments, because he’s sure to be a popular choice no matter what.
Justin Allgaier ($11,200) – Everything I said about Bell holds true with Allgaier, so I would treat him the same in tournaments. There have been plenty of times where I stacked both of these guys together and found success, but there aren’t many paths to them both paying off in the same lineup today. Be careful if you want to go that route. If they both start near the front, you may want to avoid taking them together in the same lineups.
Elliott Sadler ($10,800) – It’s business as usual for Sadler; very safe and very high floor with a ceiling that is directly tied to his starting position. He’s raced here in all five races and has never finished outside of the top-10 here, but he’s also not finished inside the top-5 or dominated any of these races. If you’re playing cash he’s a great option as always, but for tournaments, I wouldn’t go too heavy on him unless he starts near the back.
Tyler Reddick ($10,500) – Reddick sees a big price jump this week and is once again in the $10k range. Like the drivers above, the question will be if he can pay off his salary or not. He certainly has a car that can dominate, and he occasionally has a poor qualifying effort, so it’s possible that he can. Like the others, pay close attention to where he qualifies and go from there.
Cole Custer ($10,100) – Custer is hungry for a win and has shown the ability to dominate a race, and I like his chances of doing it today since he’ll only have a handful of drivers to contend with for the lead. He didn’t do very well here last year (started 9th and finished 35th), but I wouldn’t let that scare you off of him today. You can use him as a dominator or for place differential/a high finish, but know he’s in the same boat as these other expensive drivers and will struggle to pay off his salary if he fails to do either of those.
Daniel Hemric ($9,800) – Nobody is hungrier for a win that Hemric, and I expect him to really push it today to get up front and stay there for as long as he can. He raced here last year and finished 2nd (while leading 8 laps), so he certainly knows how to get it done here. Behind Bell, I think he has the best chance to dominate and win, so definitely keep an eye on him today!
Justin Marks ($9,600) – If you’re not sure who Marks is, think of him as the Xfinity equivalent of AJ Allmendinger. He’s pretty quiet everywhere else except when he shows up at a road course, then he makes a lot of noise. In his four races here he’s finished 15th, 9th, 6th, and 1st, and led 43 laps when he won in 2016. He’ll be in the #42 again today, a car we know is among the best in the field. I like his floor and love the ceiling potential he has, and I think he’s a fine choice for all formats (though like the others, he’ll need a way to really pay off in tournaments, so be mindful of who you roster him with there).
Kaz Grala ($9,400) – I was shocked when I saw how much they spiked Grala’s salary, and I’m really worried about his chances of being in the winning lineup today. He’s not somebody who I think can dominate here, so unless he starts near the back (which he certainly could, he’s had his share of poor qualifying performances), I don’t see him finding his way in the winner today. If he starts anywhere near the front, I’d recommend considering a hard fade.
Kyle Benjamin ($9,000) – Benjamin gets another race in the #18 JGR car, and he’s shown that he can compete with the best of them in it. I sort of view him as I do Bell at most other races, in that I like him in all formats and think he could pay off his salary no matter where he starts (thanks to the fast laps he could rack up). He should probably be a little more expensive, so this could be a great spot to gain some value leverage.
Brendan Gaughan ($8,400) – Gaughan has raced here four times and got a little better here every time (finishes of 20th, 12th, 8th, and 7th). He’ll have a better car this time around (the #3), so look for him to really shine today. While I don’t think he has much dominator potential (only 31 laps led in the 20 road course races in his Xfinity career), I do think he could find his way into the top-5 today, so he makes a strong place differential/finishing position candidate today.
Chase Briscoe ($7,900) – While almost everybody else saw a price increase this week, Briscoe actually stayed at his normal salary, which is great news for us. While he hasn’t raced here before, he’s shown he can hold his own at similar tracks (he finished 7th at Bowmanville in the truck series), and I think he could compete for a top-10 finish today. He’s sort of in a weird salary spot (too cheap for some people to consider him a stud, but a bit on the expensive side for a value play), so that might help to keep his ownership down some today.
Andy Lally ($7,500) – Another road course ringer, Lally has seen Mid-Ohio three times and his best finishes were 7th and 5th. Another finish like that could go a long way for how cheap he is, so be sure to have some exposure to him today (even if he starts a bit higher than we’d want). We’ll see him again in a couple of weeks at Road America, and if he does well enough today, you can be sure he won’t be this cheap there.
Katherine Legge ($6,700) – Our next Xfinity newcomer this week is Katherine Legge, who has a lot of experience at road courses in her racing career (65 of her 95 races have been at these types of tracks). She hasn’t seen Mid-Ohio very much, but she finished 2nd here in the WeatherTech SportsCar Championship series in a full-bodied Acura earlier this year. In other words, she’s got a lot more talent and potential here than her salary would lead you on to believe.
Dylan Murcott ($6,000) – There’s not much information out there about Murcott, but we do know his background is similar to Legge’s. He’s won two championships in other series (2015 and 2017) and has raced here at Mid-Ohio before. How did that go? He had this to say about his first race here:
I’d say it went pretty well!
Tim Cowen ($5,000) – And finally, our last Xfinity newcomer is Tim Cowen, who is, wouldn’t you know it, another road course ringer. Well, a ringer in training is probably more appropriate, as he hasn’t had any huge performances here just yet (he’s finished between 18th and 30th in his four Xfinity races here). Still, they brought him here for a reason (and he has a better car this time around), so he could still be worth taking some shares of in tournaments today.
And that’s going to do it for today! There are still plenty of drivers to touch on, but they will be reserved for my Slack notes after qualifying is finished. If you’re in the DFS Army, you can look forward to my notes and recommendations this afternoon (they’ll be in my Slack channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb), but if you’re not, you should really consider joining up to get access to all of the goodies we have on the inside. NFL season is fast approaching and we’re already making noise there:
Be sure to also check out our MLB content coming out today, as well as other sports like soccer and WNBA. We have lots of notes and research tools available for those sports too, which of course are all included with everything else we do for one low price (use promo code NILLY to drop it by another 10%). I hope to see more of you in our Slack channels soon, but until then, good luck today!