Regulars know what coming, a big week of potential profit off the back of the chaotic Daytona International Speedway. As always, you will get my speel on the tried and true plate track strategy, than we will talk about the drivers. It’s really hard to predict plate tracks. All we can do is talk strategy, and how different drivers fit into that. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
A couple of notes that I always like to note on restrictior plate tracks:
Most importantly, the restrictor plates. On track, the cars have about the same horsepower – meaning they will be nose to tail all day. This means drivers who usually aren’t relevant get made relevant, and if there is a crash – it’s going to end the day of 3-15 drivers in an instant.
It’s very seldom that the optimal lineup maxes that salary cap. Whacky lineups galore.
I think the most important thing this week will be playing at least five differential plays. The sweet spot is 26th starting spot or worse, and only 5 times has someone in the top five ended up in the optimal. Drivers in the back also have the benefit of more fast laps, since the cars infront of them are cutting the air for them.
Now regardless of what strategy you play this week – plate tracks have a DNF rate of around 20%. Meaning every driver in the field this Saturday will have a one in five chance of not completing all the laps. This makes just about any strategy volatile. With that in mind, understanding the correct optimal place differential strategy certainly gives us an edge.
Rather than give you top plays, fades, and values, I am going to give you my thoughts on each driver starting 25th or worse, and allow you to create a strategy with that in mind. Keep in mind that other drivers starting better than 25th arent unplayable, but they are more volatile.
Chris Buescher – Chris Buescher is a really solid plate racer and has a great history of avoiding wrecks. Earlier this year he finished 5th at Daytona, and finished 10th at this race last year. He starts a little high for me to go too crazy with him, but I like the play.
Aric Almirola – The secret on Almirola being an A-level plate racer is out, so this pick isn’t as valuable as it might of been in years past. Alas, Almirola should find himself towards the front for most of this race. If he stays out of trouble (a big if) I think a top 5 is entirely possible. A great play.
Jamie McMurray – Big Mac is a boom or bust pick when it comes to plate racing. His uber aggressive style always has him towards the front, but more often than not his day ends in a wreck. Regardless, he is a good play and could legitimately win this race. Don’t go crazy, though.
Kasey Kahne – 2018 has been pretty forgettable for Kahne, but the one shining star has been his plate race performance. He has run way better than he finished in both plate races so far, and that is enough for me. Don’t be afraid to sprinkle in a little Kahne.
Erik Jones – Jones and plate racing tend to not get along very well (his average finish on plate tracks is 32nd). However, I think there is a lot of value here. Jones will go under owned and honestly has been a victim of circumstance in his previous plate race tries. I think going a little over on EJ is a good move.
Paul Menard – Menard (and all the other Fords for that matter) will have a rocket ship this weekend. I think Menard will be one of highest owned drivers in the field, so it will be hard to find any edge here. However, he is a saavy play. (His average finish at Daytona since 2017 is 4.66).
Matt DiBenedetto – This is pretty much a lay up. If Matt D stays out of trouble, he will get a great finish. The problem is everyone else knows this too. I like matching the field here.
Daniel Suarez – My feelings towards Erik Jones mirror my feelings towards Daniel Suarez. The history isn’t there, but the best play is to leverage the uncertainty.
Ross Chastain – One of the most underrated guys in all of NASCAR, Ross Chastain could be winning races at the Cup level. Alas, he doesn’t have the equipment to do that – but he can certainly compete. This #15 car didn’t race at Daytona in the spring, but finished 25th a Dega. This is the same team that Michael Waltrip drove to an 8th at the 2017 Daytona 500. Ross Chastain is in play this weekend.
Jeffrey Earnhardt – I believe this is the car Danica ran at Daytona earlier this year, but I can’t confirm that. Either way, this “revamped” #7 has struggled to put a full race together. I am not super high on this play.
DJ Kennington – This is actually one of my favorite of the lower-tier plays. DJ drove this car to a 24th at Daytona earlier this year, and a 20th at Dega. I wish he was starting a bit farther back, so don’t go overboard with him – but he is worth playing this weekend.
Joey Gase – This 00 car was responsible for a 21st at Daytona and a 27th a Dega this year, and generally ended up 27th-32nd at other races. I don’t LOVE this play, because I am not sold on Gase’ plate racing ability – but I don’t think you ignore him.
Landon Cassill – I LOVE Landon Cassill on plate races, but this 99 team has yet to put a complete race together since their inception. I won’t be fading them, just because I trust Cassill to get more than he should out of whatever car he is in, but I wouldn’t go crazy here.
Corey LaJoie – This is a super tough one. LaJoie finished dead last in this car at Daytona, but Cole Whitt finished 21st at Dega. Alas, you have to play a car starting this far back. Not my favorite play by any means, but unavoidable.
Ray Black Jr. – This is the first plate race for this team, and Ray Black Jr first plate race in the Monster series. The only reason to play him is because he is starting 39th. I have very little confidence though.
JJ Yeley – Gray Gaulding actually had some pretty goods plate race runs in this car earlier this year (20th and 24th). Yeley is a wiley old vet that should be able to keep it pointed forward, and I THINK this car can go all 400 miles. Starting 40th? Whats the worst that can happen! I like this play a lot.
So there it is folks. We will be talking more strategy on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.