Hello everyone, and welcome back to the MLB cash academy at the DFS Army! I go by nillyJay in the DFS Army where I coach and contribute content for MLB, NASCAR, and all things cash games related (such as proper bankroll management and cash ladders). You can find me on Twitter or in our Slack channels @nillyJay.
It’s Freebie Friday at the DFS Army today, so be sure to check out all of our free content today, such as the MLB research station!
The basics
Please refer to the original article here if you’re unfamiliar with any of the stats or terminology used in the notes below.
Cash players – 7/13/2018
Note: given the nature of this slate and the lack of any “surefire” pitching options, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to hedge against whichever pitcher(s) you use in cash games in tournaments (even if only the quarter arcade) to give yourself some insurance.
Dallas Keuchel (HOU P: $9,000 FD | $8,400 DK) – We have a massive 15-game slate tonight, but we don’t have any top-tier aces to fall back on for cash games (not counting Syndergaard since he’s fresh off the DL). We can follow Vegas, and they lead us to Kuechel with his -238 moneyline and 3.24 implied runs. Our other data support this decision; Kuechel has the second best carnage rating today at 3.18, along with a combined wOBA of .277. Detroit has seen him a few times, so they could certainly limit his upside, but he looks to have enough of a floor today for our purposes.
Madison Bumgarner (SFG P: $9,400 FD | $11,400 DK) – If you want to pay up a little, Bumgarner has looked pretty good in his return and gets the start in pitcher’s paradise tonight. His Vegas love isn’t quite as high as Dallas’ is (-143 moneyline and 3.68 implied runs), but that’s still a lot better than most of the others today. His carnage rating is average, but his combined wOBA looks really good at .247, and his KSCORE of 467 isn’t too bad either. I worry about his tournament-winning upside tonight, but I like his floor in cash games.
Mookie Betts (BOS OF: $5,200 FD | $6,100 DK) – This one might be a little too obvious, but Mookie has been in his own league this season. He’s had double-digit scoring in 7 straight games, two hits in each of his last four games, and has scored a zero exactly three times all season. If you can afford him, get him, because you won’t find a more reliable bat in all of baseball. His .471 wOBA and .571 ISO against lefties will be on full display tonight, and it doesn’t look good for Borucki and his 7.23 carnage rating.
Jason Kipnis (CLE 2B: $3,300 FD | $4,100 DK) – Kipnis broke a 6-game fantasy scoring streak yesterday (15-game streak before that one), but there’s no shame in dropping a streak to Luis Severino. He’ll look to start a new one today with his recent .459 wOBA and .286 ISO against right-handed pitchers. German has done well against righties, but is a bit vulnerable to lefties; he’s given up .554 wOBA and .500 ISO to them over his last 5 starts.
Wil Myers (SDP OF: $3,500 FD | $4,900 DK) – Myers has been on a nice little run lately, and finds himself in a good matchup again today. He’s hitting righties for .407 wOBA and .353 ISO, while Chatwood has been giving up .366 wOBA and .300 ISO to righties. What’s more, Myers is 8 for 23 (with 6 XBH and 3 home runs) against Chatwood, and I think he gets at least #9 and #10 today.
Starling Marte (PIT OF: $3,700 FD | $5,000 DK) – Guerra has a pretty good matchup today, but there’s one Pirate that can easily give him trouble. Marte has been hitting righties for .517 wOBA and .211 ISO lately and has fantasy production in 8 straight games (6 of which were double-digit). He’s also 7 for 14 (3 XBH and one home run) against Guerra and has only stuck out once against him. Overall, he’s a solid play yet again today.
Freebie Friday!
I’ve mentioned before that I create a list of batters in favorable spots every day and put that list in my Slack channel. The idea is to be able to quickly find players in good positions that we can consider using for cash games. I do this for both classic and Pick’Em, and since it’s Freebie Friday I’m going to share some of it here. To begin, here’s what tier 4 in DraftKings Pick’Em looks like:
As you can see, everybody in this tier is running fairly hot, but only a few pitchers in these matchups are giving up a lot to the hand they’re facing. That helps us determine which batters are more suitable for cash games and which ones we should take shots with in tournaments.
Next, the batter list for classic mode. Today’s list has 44 batters on it, and I’m going to share 12 of them in here:
Lots of value plays in there! Remember, cash game lineups don’t have to be difficult to build. Find batters that are running hot going up against pitchers who aren’t throwing well and you have a lot of what you need to know. If necessary, you can use the batter’s BvP (batter vs pitcher) data or other information to help narrow down your selection.
And that’s going to do it for today! Be sure to check out my NASCAR Xfinity preview article for the race tonight, as well as the rest of our MLB content today. Remember, it’s Freebie Friday, so make the most of it! Oh, and one last thing:
NFL is fast approaching…
…and we’re looking for a new writer to join our group! Also, keep in mind that our prices go up during football season, so now is the time to join up if you want to enjoy all of our VIP-only content at the lower price. Just remember to use promo code NILLY to enjoy that 10% discount, too. Good luck today!