Hey, hey, hey…..it’s your DFS MLB buddy @Choppodong!! I am a coach and contributor inside DFS Army, where our entire goal is teaching you the fundamentals that will make you a better, more competitive player as quickly as possible.
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Remember, this article is designed to get you pointed in the right direction. It’s not a slate write-up and it’s not a player picks piece. I would rather get you started, then have you interact with us in our VIP slack forums as we banter picks and strategies back and forth. Learning MLB the right way is the fastest way to grow your skill level.
DFS Army is about teaching first. This is a video breakdown covering the important parts of today’s slates….you might even get some tips as I walk through my process. Even I don’t know what I’m going to say…
Video shows July 31 main slate. Tip at end for finding “double red” pitchers!
Back to Basics
It’s always a good idea to know which teams are scoring runs and which are giving them up. I will simply sort by the last 30 days and rank the teams. Here are your top 10 in terms of runs scored and your top 10 highest team ERAs (worst pitching).
This week, we try to focus on playing the top 10 offenses where it makes sense and attacking the highest 10 team ERAs. If any of them should directly matchup, we look to exploit it pretty hard. Gotta love teams on both lists like the Twins, Cubs, Reds, Cardinals, and Rays. Let’s hope they play each other, too!
MLB DFS Pitching
We are always looking for the best combination of price, Vegas, strikeout upside, and matchup (ballparks, weather, etc). We will normally be looking to the top tier on Fanduel and will likely come off that a little so we can afford a decent SP2 on Draftkings. Generic rules like that always have exceptions. Be flexible. KScore is the pitcher’s strikeout potential with the opposing team’s vulnerability to striking out. The DFSA Grade is proprietary to our VIPs but will give you guys something to track in terms of a catch-all safety rating.
Main Slate Pitching Roundup
DET and ATL look like the trouble spots tonight with rain. I might be off those games completely, unless I hear otherwise later in the day. Questionable spots are PIT and WAS, but those look more like early game delay spots. I won’t be on any of those pitchers, so there’s not a lot of risk for my targets today there.
Today, the pitchers in the top section are who I’m using. The pitchers below are just for comparison purposes.
Bauer will be many people’s lead on name today. Morton will be another. I’m not a huge fan of either. Bauer at $11800 is overpriced and facing a rather warm Twins club currently. His KScore isn’t a lot better than far cheaper pitchers and his Vegas support is only mediocre. No need to pay $3000 more for that. Of the pricey guys, Masahiro Tanaka is one I’d roll out. More on him below.
As I scan down the list looking for the combo of price, Vegas, and KScore, I don’t see much to get me excited until I land on Walker Beuhler. $7400 with solid win chances and a 500+ KScore sort of becomes today’s benchmark. Flaherty doesn’t compare in Vegas. Godley is fine, but faces Rangers bats in Arizona (Coors of the desert) and costs a little more. Going up in price, we land on Tanaka pretty quickly and that odd duck -305 odds to win. I’ve seen these backfire on Vegas a lot, so buyer beware. But, his KScore is solid and under $10k pitching is something I’ll look at. It honestly doesn’t much compare to Beuhler’s spot, but for differentiation purposes, it’s more than a solid decision. Morton compares to Tanaka in all but Vegas. Again, neither compares to the price of Beuhler.
Beuhler is my lead by quite a lot. And, remember, I’m looking for about 37 points from him where I need 45+ from Tanaka and Morton to bring the same value. That makes a big difference and it also allows me more consistent power hitting stacks in big offenses. We’ll see if it pans out tonight.
REFRESH THE BASICS by thumbing through our timeless content —> MLB Strategy Articles and Tips
How about some more winning?! I change these screenshots like I change mistresses. Seriously, why are you just taking the free content? Why aren’t you in here receiving the tools, optimizer, and coaching? These guys are, and these guys are dominating the competition.
In case you don’t recognize the name, this is the same guy that has been featured winning $10k, $20k, and now $50k this year. In his previous quote, @dradt said: “I usually try to set a lineup from my own research before turning to the articles and slack chat for confirmation if I’m on the right track or to pick up on something I have missed. I have really gotten a lot out of Chop, CeeGee, and MDell’s articles that have changed the way I put together a lineup. The army in general has made me better just through the articles and research station as it opened my eyes to things I never considered before….”
As a result, @dradt has won over $80,000 in the last 3 months. You’re welcome, buddy. Note he now has an official DFS Army helmet!!
Soft MLB DFS Pitching to Exploit
I will use lower rated pitching via our Research Station to identify poor matchups. I will further use that rating to target the opposing bats where said bats also carry high implied run totals from Vegas. You will see many of these teams, with player names, featured below in the next section.
I toss in a shot of our lowest graded pitching matchups today. I want to show you the far right column…..SIERA. Note how the high SIERAs correlate with low DFSA Grades leading us to the bad matchups. The Research Station cuts your research time down exponentially when you know how to use it.
Learn the DFS MLB Research Station by watching our —–> RS Tutorial
Colon (ARI)
Miley (LAD)
Arrieta (BOS)
Gaviglio (OAK)
Boyd (CIN)
Bailey (DET)
Matz (WAS)
Leake (HOU)
Remember the danger in the weather with CINvDET? Well, if you are a gambler, throwing a game stacked lineup in there might not be horrible if that game plays through and everyone else got spooked. We see two targetable pitchers, in the same game, on the mound tonight………and offenses no one usually likes anyway. I’ve seen worse decisions made in an attempt to find low ownership. (My tip to you)
DFS MLB Bats and Stack Considerations
I focus on attacking the pitchers above, and I love it when I see Vegas supporting the cause or a high powered offense matching up with these attackable pitchers. I will then focus on the better bats within the offense and key in on our batters grading out over 75 in our Research Station. Bear in mind, I’m listing day-to-day and 10day DL guys, too. Your job is to follow the news, or plug into our Slack Channels and get the details as our slates lock for the day.
Main Offenses to Stack
NYY – Bird, Walker, Hicks
BOS – JD Mart, Nunez
ATL – Flowers, Camargo
ARI – all of them! Goldy, Avila, Souza, Escobar, Descalso, Ahmed, Jay, Marte
OAK – most of them! Davis, Chapman, Lowrie, Martini, Canha
WAS – Zimmerman, Murphy, Turner, Harper, Eaton, Soto
A lot of these guys are expensive and on chalky teams. I eat chalk in MLB a lot of the time. However, I am not afraid to get away from it when warranted. I also have some value plays locked and loaded for our VIPs in our slack forums that you might be interested in noting today. But, for that, you have to be a VIP……
These are NOT specific stacks, but they make up the core of players I will be using when targeting the corresponding team. Mix and match them by making a few lineups because neither you nor I know which combo of these players will connect best tonight.
LEARN TO WHIP THE COMPETITION WITH – The Domination Station Optimizer!!
Final MLB DFS Thoughts
For MLB cash games, keep the stacking to a minimum. You can’t afford to grab stack Rockies in Coors and have them fall flat, which they occasionally do. ISO is a great stat to look at with wOBA for hitter-friendly parks. Remember to head over to DFSARMY.com, your one-stop-shop for stats, player recommendations, coaching, winning lineups discussion, and everything DFS related. Use code CHOP to trigger a 10% discount every month as long as you remain a member regardless of any future price increases. You are grandfathered in at your rate permanently!!
Prices will be going up soon. I don’t have an exact deadline yet, but we are inside a month. Therefore, if you have ever considered becoming a VIP, you might want to hop off the fence soon. I am trying to warn everyone with as much notice as possible. If you don’t act, I can’t save you money.