Daily Fantasy Sports
Sharp App
Season Long Fantasy
Free Month
Wall of Champions
Discord

DFS Golf: Chalk Donkey – The Open Championship

Welcome to this weeks Chalk Donkey article for DFS PGA Golf. It’s time for the third major of the year as we head across the pond for the Open Championship at Carnoustie! 

My name is Josh ThomasP, and I’ll be writing the Chalk Donkey article for VIP’s every week here at DFS Army looking at who the chalk plays are in DFS Golf and who you can pivot to. We’ll look at if you need to eat the chalk especially in cash games, and take a deep dive into some pivots using our Research Station and the Domination Station.

Open Championship week! I feel like I say it at every major but this is really my favorite tournament of the year. I mentioned it in my sub 7k sleeper article but there is nothing better than waking up and watching golf while drinking coffee in your underwear. Especially if you have little kids who get up at the crack of dawn and you are usually resigned to watching cartoons. It’s like Christmas for degens like me!

Last week, the John Deere Classic provided a bit of mixed bag of results. Bryson DeChambeau WD’d mid 1st round killing a lot of really solid lineups in the process. We had some decent week long results including a member turning $.60 into $200 (Thats 333% ROI for those of you bad at math like me), but our bread and butter bankroll builder was the showdown last weekend! Catcountry took down the big $6 RD 4 GPP for 15k! Thats a massive win and I’m expecting not only more positive showdown results this werekend, but for us to hit another big weeklong GPP too! It’s only a matter of time before we get another 100K winner here, maybe someone even takes down the Milly Maker!

Course Breakdown:

Carnoustie or Carnasty as some have been known to call it is a bear of a course and one of the toughest courses in the Open Rota and is one of the oldest courses in the world with the original layout put together by the legendary Old Tom Morris way back in 1867.

A couple of golfing legends have won Open Championships here, including Ben Hogan, Tom Watson, and Gary Player. In the most recent iteration here in 2007 Padraig Harrington had the come from behind win on Sunday in a playoff over Sergio Garcia. Jean Van de Valde had his famous collapse here hitting it into the infamous Barry Burn and losing a huge lead to eventual winner Paul Lawrie. 

The course plays at 7402 yards and a par 71, unlike a traditional par 71 it still only has 2 par 5’s, three par 3’s and 13 Par 4’s, including 7 in the long category which we will get to later. There are more than 100 bunkers in play on the course, with many strategically placed in the fairways to force you into certain shots. This is going to make accuracy and placement off the tee essential.

If you look at the way the course is set up above you can see that players are going to have judge the wind on every single hole as the holes switch back and play in different directions almost every other hole. The prevailing wind comes off the ocean and will be cutting across hole 18 or into your face on hole 2 but that often changes, based on a variety of factors including the tide.

There are a variety of grasses here, but for the most part the greens are Bent Grass. The weather always plays a role in an Open Championship but many wouldn’t have guessed that the weather here the past month would be a factor. Scotland has little no rain over the last 30 days and it has changed the way the course plays entirely. It is BROWN and hard. Players have been commenting that the fairways are actually faster than the greens right now and the R & A is trying to get it to stay that way by watering the greens daily. Players are getting a ridiculous amount of roll when they hit the fairways. Tiger hit a 333 yard 3 Iron on Monday. That’s insane.

The other thing that the dry weather has done to the course is make the rough play less penal. In 1999, the rough was thick and right on the edge of these very tight fairways. In 2007, the rough was thick and wet from the massive amount of rain they had coming into the tournament. Today, the rough is wispy and not very thick. Players have stated that they’ve actually been able to get some spin coming out of the rough which is unheard of for a Open Championship.

That being said, it’s still going to be vitally important for players to hit fairways and think their way around this course as there is trouble everywhere, including OB on a number of holes. Combine the OB, the bunkers, the wind, and I want to target players who are excellent ball strikers with good Tee to Green game.

What is a Chalk Donkey?

First let’s breakdown what I consider to be ‘chalk’.  Let’s look at each each price range and what is considered chalk there. (DK pricing is used for a guide)

Over 10K: >25% Anything over 25% in this range is considered chalk, and could even go down to 20%. Some weeks ownership is pretty evenly spread in this range, and some weeks one player gathers all the ownership and becomes a Chalk Donkey.

9K: >20% Again, any time over 20% of the field is on a player in this price range we would consider them a chalk donkey.

8K to 7.5K: 15%-20% This is a little trickier in this range, but I consider anyone over 15% chalk. DK has been jamming a bunch of guys in around 7.5k lately and we’ve seen guys get up there in ownership.

Below 7.5K: >10%  Players are priced here for a reason, and oftentimes one or two become what I call DFS Darlings and garner a ton of ownership While you usually have to eat this chalk in cash, you want to swerve it any chance you can in GPP’s.

One thing to remember as you construct lineups, players are ‘Chalk Donkeys’ for a reason, they are perceived to be good plays. Don’t fade the ‘Chalk Donkeys’ just because they are going to be highly owned. Very rarely does no chalk hit, and often times you find some of these ‘Chalk Donkeys’ in GPP winning lineups. Fading the chalk is strictly a leverage play, in that if that player plays poorly you are in much better shape not playing them. 

Key Stats this Week:

In this section, I’ll cover what I feel are some of the key stats this week. We get lots of questions in slack about what to look for in the RS and here are some of the things that I’ll be focusing on this week for the Open Championship.

Value Tab: 

The first thing I look at every week when I open up the RS is the Value tab and at a major it is no different. Who is popping as a value this week. This is pretty easy to find as the better the value, the darker the green box. The value tab looks at Vegas odds and our projections, versus the salary FanDuel or DraftKings have assigned to that player.

It’s not surprise that some of the players that are ‘mispriced’ show up here. Tony Finau and Zach Johnson are cash game locks for me given the value they have down here. Russell Henley has been hot and played well at the US Open at Shinnecock Hills which some consider a ‘links’ style course. Henrik Stenson was one of my favorite plays this week but given the tweet below, I’m drastically lowering my shares of him.

Fantasy Points/Long Par 4

With 7 par 4’s falling into the long category this week, how players score on these holes will be huge. It’s difficult to identify some of the European tour players here in the RS because they don’t keep data on par 4 scoring, so this is really only useful for the PGA tour players but still vitally important.

Stenson was at the top of this list, but I’m considering full fading him given his injury at this point. No surpises here though as we see some of the top players in the world. Overall, it looks like Justin Rose is the best combined par 4 scorer here and thats good to see as he is one of my Core Plays this week.

Strokes Gained: Approach (Last 5) 

As always, we want to target SG: Approach but I think it is going to be vitally important here as this appears to be a course that is going to reward solid second shots.

Matthew Southgate tops the list but has an extremely small size, that being said, he is one of my favorite value plays this week. It’s surprising to me that Thomas Pieters showed up here as I think of him as more of a bomber than a good iron player, but it piques my interest in GPP. Rose is just a standard overall great play and not many players have been better in approach over the last few weeks than Francesco Molinari and it shows with his results.

Average Fantasy Points/Gained

This stat looks at how many fantasy points players are gaining on the field and is something that I like much better than birdie or better percentage as it identifies guys who are actually scoring fantasy points which is what we need to target to have a successful GPP team.

I included in the screenshot Avg. GIR Gained and Double Bogey or Worse % as both will play huge roles this week. Surprise Surprise the tournament favorite Dustin Johnson tops this list and its not even really close. I’m going to spoil the secret here but if I’m making one lineup DJ is in it. There really is no one better in the world right now.

Other key stats to consider this week, that I’ll get into in my breakdown of the chalk donkeys:

SG: OTT, Adjusted Field Rank, Avg. Greens in Regulation Gained, Cut %, Double Bogey or Worse Percentage. SG: Around the Green, and SG: Putting.  I’ll specifically look at any changes in the Strokes gained categories in the last 5 as opposed to the season for players. 

Who are this week’s Chalk Donkeys?

In this section, each price range’s Chalk Donkey will be identified, and a few pivots will be offered. I use DraftKings pricing since that is where I usually play, but their pricing is usually similar to FanDuel and when a player pops as a value on one site but not another I’ll make sure to mention it.

Above 10K: 

As usual we have five golfers up here and two are going to suck up the majority of the ownership, Dustin Johnson and Justin Rose. Both are excellent plays and I will be starting the majority of my lineups with at least one of them and possibly both on Fanduel where you can afford them with some of the value plays down low.

Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, and Justin Thomas are all projecting to be under 15% owned and I could see Spieth end up in the single digits. Should you go there in GPP with any of these three? Lets look into it.

Rory has the best recent history at the Open, Spieth has been fairly consistent here, and JT hasn’t really found his way at the Open Championship yet. Of the three I have the least amount of concern with JT’s overall game as he has been very solid this year. Spieth has had an awful approach game over the last two months, and Rory’s putter has actually maybe been worse than Spieths was earlier this year.

Of the three, I feel most comfortable rostering Rory McIlroy in GPP considering the success he has had in Europe over his career, but I don’t think you should over think this range as DJ and Justin Rose are clearly the best plays and should be in the majority of your lineups.

9K:

We have another very small 9K range this week with only 5 players, but all are world class and good options to fire up in your lineup!

 

Rickie Fowler: DK $9700/FD $11,400

Things are shaping up for Rickie to be the chalk of the chalk this week. People LOVE Rickie at majors and he continues to be the best player ‘without a major’.

Rickie has excellent event history and has been playing extremely well lately. Outside his missed cut at the Players (Because his ball got stuck in a tree) he hasn’t finished lower than 20th. Thats incredible.

Not only is he finishing high in tournaments he’s also playing extremely well. He’s accurate, he’s long, doesn’t get into a ton of trouble, I just don’t see how you get off him this week.

Again, Rickie is going to be the chalk of the chalk this week and I’ll have my shares of him. I think you can fade him but its VERY risky.

Tommy Fleetwood: DK $9400/FD $10900

Tommy “DFS Darling” Fleetwood is getting a lot of buzz this week and I think he will end up one of those guys that you project at around 18% owned and ends up in the 25% range as he fits in a lot of lineups. If you haven’t heard already you will when you watch the coverage here this week but Fleetwood has the course record here.

Here’s the problem with Tommy. He has all the talent in the world, and he can go super low, but he just hasn’t been able to do it consistently. Yes, he back doored the 2nd place finish at the US Open but outside of that his record has been mediocre this year. 66th at the French Open (Links Style) 59th at BMW most recently. While he is new on the scene, he has a poor event history here and while some may not think last years 21st wasn’t a bad finish, it was considering the event was played at the course he grew up on.

It’s dangerous to fade anyone in the 9K up range as they all have good odds to win. Tommy’s odds have actually drifted back a bit so if that continues it will be easier for me to swallow a fade but there are other guys I just would rather play than Tommy Boy this week.

Jon Rahm’s course management concerns me here. I don’t know that he has the ability to work and plod his way around a golf course. He’s had a couple good recent finishes, but both were marred by blow up holes. And if the wind picks up and the scoring is high, Rahm might not be able to recover from a bad hole.

Brooks Koepka is in a smash spot at that price for me. All he does is get top 20’s in majors. On Draftkings I will be WAY overweight on Koepka but his price tag makes him an intriguing play on FD too at lower ownership.

The GPP Game Theory play for me in this range is Sergio Garcia. When you think of ballstrikers you think of Sergio and he choked this tournament away on Sunday in 07 at this very course. Starting a lineup with Fowler/Garcia or Koepka/Garcia allows you to build a very solid core without having to reach too much. I’ll have more Garcia and Koepka than anyone else in this range.

8K:

Major pricing is so soft! We get the 9th ranked player in the world at $8600! Thats insane to me. Lets take a look and see where the chalk donkey’s are in this range.

Henrik Stenson: DK $8200/FD $11600

We’re going to talk about both Swedes here but first lets look at the one with the better pedigree. Stenson comes in as far and away the best value on the board for DK and he is just lighting up every stat category as usual. DK can’t seem to get his price right as they always make him ultra affordable for majors. If this was a normal year, I’d be all over him but as I alluded to earlier, the elbow injury really concerns me.

For whatever reason, he has built up a reputation as a WD threat on tour at almost every stop and he’s a bit injury prone. Currently he’s projecting over 15% owned and if there’s any sort of injury threat here I think for my own self interest I’m going to be fading. Playing him at a reduced ownership because of the injury threat could pay off in a big way but it sounds like he has barely swung a club and is only here because its the Open Championship.

I can guarantee that my counterpart here at DFS Army will be going all in on Stenson this week and I respect that but I’ll flip my shares here to another Swede who despite being chalk, I think is in a great spot and has a chance to become the 10th 1st time major winner in the last 12 events.

Alexander Noren: DK $8300/FD $9800

First off, before I even get into breaking down why I love Noren this week I want you to go over to FanDuel and just lock him in. That price is ridiculous for a player of Noren’s caliber. Noren is having a fantastic year and had a huge come from behind win at the Open de France a few weeks ago. He has two top tens in 6 tries here, including a 6th place finish at last years event.

Noren should garner quite a bit of ownership down here and may push close to twenty percent given the news about Henrik’s injury but he’s player that I’ve had pegged here for months and I’m going to push the chips all in in on him this week.

Noren does so much well that its scary. His around the green game is only average, but off the tee and putting he’s phenomenal. You see that -.67 Approach from his last time out? Thats a bit concerning until you realize that he did that and won the tournament! We get the 11th ranked golfer in the world at a price tag of the 20th. Lock and load. His winning upside is huge as evidenced by the 33% drift we’ve already seen in his odds since they came out. Chalk or not, give me all the Noren here, he may be the trendy pick to win but I’m a believer.

There are a TON of good options in this range. For me the guys I’ll be playing are, Tiger Woods, Jason Day, and Patrick Reed. I’m going to be making a stand and not playing much if any Paul Casey this week. He has mediocre course history and is generally not a great par 4 scorer. Phil Mickelson will be popular based on name recognition alone and may suck up some of the Stenson ownership that bleeds out and to be honest I hope he does as I have ZERO interest in Phil this week. The form just isn’t there right now. He hasn’t had a top ten in forever and was brutal on Sunday at the Greenbrier. I’ll let others chase a Phil British Open resurgence.

Hideki Matsuyama and Francesco Molinari are two difficult ones for me to peg. Matsuyama has been somewhat steady on the US side since his wrist injury, nothing spectacular but consistently making the cut and finishing in the top 25, yet just teed it up at the Scottish Open last week to miss the cut, despite having a pretty good links record. Molinari is the hottest golfer on the planet but has pretty mediocre Open Championship and links history in general. If anything I’ll have a few shares of Molinari just trying to ride the hot hand but Deki and his awful putting can be sweated by someone else.

Some guys are pretty high on Marc Leishman and I’m interested but not enough where I think you HAVE to play him. He’s a good cash option and has great history here. If you are MME’n you for sure want some exposure to Leish.

7K:

Surprisingly this is NOT my favorite range this week (6K Baby!) but there are some excellent plays here that you are going to need to hammer if you want a winning lineup this week, there are also two players here that far and away the chalk of this range. The upper end of this range will be somewhat popular but the real ownership will be focused, especially in cash games on the next two players I highlight.

Tony Finau: DK $7200/FD $10200

I don’t know who Finau pissed off at DraftKings or who he owes money to, but he is consistently underpriced on that platform every single major. Hopefully he doesn’t break his ankle this week in a practice round, or maybe he should as he played excellent at the Masters on that bum leg. Finau has found himself contending at both majors this year and I actually see no reason why he shouldn’t here as well.

Surely Tony Finau’s game doesn’t translate to the Open Championship does it? Well apparently it does as he has finishes of 27th and 18th in both trips he’s made across the pond. Finau does a lot of things well, but the one concern I have with him is his accuracy off the tee. If he gets in trouble with placement of the ball off the tee it could be a long (or rather short) week for him. He’s solid around the greens, and while not a great putter he’s not necessarily bad.

I think the play with Tony this week is to fire him up in Cash games as a hedge for a GPP fade. Remember you gotta make a stand somewhere so I don’t mind pivoting down here in GPP while hedging him at massive ownership in cash. That same strategy is going to apply to the next guy as well.

Zach Johnson: DK $7200/FD $9700

Zach pissed someone off at both DK and FD with this pricing. He hasn’t had a finish outside the top 20 since Fort Worth and has this event history.

Huh? What? That’s ridiculous. He has a win, three top 10s, two top 15’s, a top 20, and top 50 since 2011. Literally no one has a better Open Championship record than ZJ. AND he’s playing well! He was a bit iffy earlier in the year with his irons but has really dialed in his approach game over the last few weeks despite a mediocre performance at the John Deere (had troubles in RD 1 and 2 but killed it 3 and 4)

While I think the strategy of hedging ZJ in cash and fading him in GPP is fine here I will have a few shares of him in MME as his history is just too strong.

The rest of this range is going to have some pretty spread out ownership. Branden Grace, Tyrell Hatton, and Matt Kuchar will be next in line in terms of ownership. I have a ton of interest in Hatton and he will be one of my core GPP plays here. He has two wins at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship which is played at this course (one round out of four but he’s still very familiar) and has been playing some excellent golf of late with a 9th and 16th and a 6th place finish at the US Open. Hatton’s an excellent driver of the golf ball and a solid putter but his short game can cause him to have some fits and he’s not always the most calm, cool and collected player on the course. Grace shows up every major and contends and I expect this to be no different, though the fact he hasn’t played since the US Open is a bit concerning. I will have zero shares of Kuchar as he just hasn’t done much this year. He’ll probably make the cut and maybe you can play him in cash but I’m going to be avoiding him.

Some low owned guys that I’m interested in for GPP are:

Luke List: He finished 3rd at the Scottish Open…What?! Luke List? The same guy that barely makes the cut on the US side? A bomber who has apparently taken a liking to the links style of play, worth a look in a few GPP’s. I think he’s a good Tony Finau Pivot.

Chris Wood: Englishman who has found himself in contention a few times over the last couple of weeks. Including a second place finish to Alex Noren at the Open de France. Big guy who bombs it but has the short game to back it up.

Thomas Pieters: Suprisingly rates out pretty well here. Was supposed to be the next big thing to come out of Europe and had a decent Ryder Cup at Hazeltine but has really fizzled since. 6th last week at the Scottish Open and has made 5 cuts in a row. Low owned play with lots of upside.

Jorge Campillo:  One of the hottest players on the Euro Tour comes in at a ridiculous price on Fanduel only $200 above minimum. Fanduel really low balled a lot of these euro players and thats good for us as it allows us to make some really nice looking lineups. Recent form is excellent, faded a bit at the Scottish Open for a 32nd place finish, but was 3rd at the Irish Open, 8th in France, and 33rd at the BMW in extremely strong fields. Very accurate off the tee and approach struggles a bit around the greens, but has shown he can contend in these strong field.

Danny Willett: Yes, the same Danny Willett that won the Masters and disappeared is now going to find his way onto a couple of my rosters this week.

The back problems that have plagued him the last few years appear to be no more as he has a couple of really solid finishes in a row. He was one of the best players in the world leading up to that Masters’ win and has the talent to contend here, a solid links style player who actually has a top ten at this tournament in 2015 when he was playing well. Worth a GPP dart in my mind.

Thorbjorn Olesen: Maybe my favorite play down here. Thorbjorn has a win this year at the Italian Open over Francesco Molinari one of the hottest players on the planet. Also has a win here over Brooks Koepka during the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. I’ll have a ton of Thorbjorn on FanDuel where he’s just priced dumb.

Below 7K: 

Now we get to one of my favorite price ranges of the week. 12 of the top 25 DK scorers at the Open Championship last year were from this range and 13 of the top 25 the year before.

Matthew Southgate: DK $6900/FD $7900 

Southgate is one of my favorite plays on the board this week at a discount price of $6900 on DK and $7900 on FD with odds to win at 114-1 which is the second best of  any guys priced in this range. Southgate has finishes of 6th and 12th in his two appearances at the Open Championship. Add that into his recent form of T23, T59, 5th, and even a 68th at the US Open and you have a player that is providing us huge value at this price point. At a course where I’m going to target guys with good approach numbers you also get Southgate at 31st in SG: APP on the Euro Tour and 6th in Greens in Regulation. Traditionally a great links player and at a course thats a par 71 the fact that he’s 28th in par 4 scoring is exciting as well. Only concern is if he can get the putter going, but it hasn’t been an issue the past few weeks with these slower greens. I’ll be firing up quite a bit of Southgate this week and will be well over the field in ownership.

Alexander Bjork: DK $6800/FD $7300 

Another guy with great odds compared to price, you won’t find many hotter golfers coming into this tournament than Bjork who has finishes of T19, 14th, 8th, 33rd, 96th, 27, 1st and 3rd in his last 8 events  on the European tour and I would venture to guess you probably have never heard of him. The 19th, 14th, and 8th all took place on links style courses as well. This is his first British Open which is a bit concerning to me, but he is clearly comfortable on the links. He is 2nd in SG: Approach on the European tour this year which is extremely impressive and 23rd in scrambling which is another key stat we need to look at this week. Bjork has been a cash register the last few weeks if you’ve been playing Euro Tour DFS and is a great GPP option. He has top ten potential with my only concern being his ability to keep it in the fairway, but hopefully he is able to lay back with an iron and keep it in play and let his approach game do the work. Also, smash him on FD at that price, lets you do some crazy stuff with the rest of your lineup!

Stewart Cink: DK $6600/FD $8000

Obviously most know who Stewey Cink is but his pricing this week seems a tad low considering his recent form and history at this event. Cink finished 6th here at the 2007 event and has since made 5 of 7 cuts and is playing some of his best golf in recent memory with finishes of 4th, 2nd, and 27th in his last three events which is something that we like to see coming into this event. I don’t think Cink will win here but he has a good shot to make the cut and contend for a top twenty and at his price he can be a steal. The only weak spot in his game right now is his putter but he’s killing it off the tee, approach, and around the green. Excellent Par 4 and 5 scorer. At this price I’ll be invested in Cink quite a bit.

Dylan Fritelli: DK $6800/FD $8100

I think Fritelli is a sneaky play down here this week as he really struggled in the US earlier in the year before heading back to Europe and having three solid finishes in a row all inside the top 25 at these three events with excellent fields. Has a ton of talent and GPP winning upside.

There’s not a lot of other options down here. I have some interest in Kevin Na as he has some good event history here.

Weather: 

Below is the Wind Forecast that I took Tuesday Morning and then Tuesday Afternoon.

Tuesday Morning 

Tuesday Afternoon

There is some change and there will be more to come in the next 48 hours but right now it looks like there is a slight draw bias to Thursday AM and Friday PM Tee Times. This could obviously change as on Monday it looked like it was going to be the opposite. The gusts Friday afternoon have now moved up to Friday Morning. This is something we have to keep an eye as weather plays a huge role at the Open Championship and have no fear, we will be all over this in slack and Mark our DFS Army Meteorologist will be keeping an eye on it for us too!

Right now it doesn’t look like a huge advantage if the weather was going to stay like this my strategy would be if I was making 20 lineups I would have:

5 Strictly AM/PM

3 Strictly PM/AM

12 Mixed

Why play guys from the ‘bad draw’? At the Open Championship the weather is always unpredictable and sometimes the bad draw can turn into the good draw. This is just an easy way to leverage the field in GPP. Right now if I’m only making one lineup I’m not worrying about tee times at all. There doesn’t appear to be that big of an advantage to warrant that.

Final Thoughts: 

As ownership trends start to finalize this week, I’ll post some updates in slack and make sure to join in and ask any questions. This is going to be a great week and I can’t wait to see some of those green screens and winning lineups!

Join us in Slack Chat this week and lets win some money! I’ll be there off and on all week, but will  be in helping build lineups from 9:00 to 10:00 PM CST on Wednesday night getting you guys ready to take down some huge GPP’s!

Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to this weeks event!