Welcome to this weeks Chalk Donkey article for DFS PGA Golf. This week the PGA tour heads to the Greenbrier for A Military Tribute at the Greenbrier.
My name is Josh ThomasP, and I’ll be writing the Chalk Donkey article for VIP’s every week here at DFS Army looking at who the chalk plays are in DFS Golf and who you can pivot to. We’ll look at if you nee
d to eat the chalk especially in cash games, and take a deep dive into some pivots using our Research Station and the Domination Station.
Whoa, thats a mouthful! What was formerly the Greenbrier Classic is now A Military Tribute at the Greenbrier. I’m always a big fan of the military being involved in golf tournaments and the golfer’s shaking hands with members as they walk off greens is one of my favorite things, but boy this new name is a mouthful, and I think I’ll just refer to this tournament as the Greenbrier for the rest of the article.
Last week, the DFS Army crushed, not only in week long tournaments, but also in the showdown slates and I’m looking forward to carrying that momentum into this week. We were all in on Molinari, Armour, Gay, and Ancer and we saw a lot of green screens Sunday evening!
Before getting to this week’s chalk donkeys’ lets look at the course first. The Old White TPC course has been hosting the PGA tour since 2010 in the form of the Greenbrier Classic and now A Military Tribute at the Greenbrier. It has also hosted a Ryder cup (1979) and a Solheim Cup (1994). The course is located the Greenbrier which is a luxury resort in the Allegheny Mountains in West Virginia. The resort has a significant place not only in golf history, but US History as well, housing a massive underground bunker that was meant to serve as a shelter for members of the US congress during the cold war. The original hotel on the site also changed hands multiple times between the Confederate and Union Armies during the Civil War.
We get another par 70 this week, coming in at 7286 yards. Two Par 5’s, Four Long Par 3’s, and Twelve Par 4’s. Last year the course played .141 strokes under par which is pretty difficult. There were only eagles for the entire tournament and similar to last week there only looks like one stretch that has the possibility of yielding a 3 birdie streak (16-18).
Last year, the cut was -1 with the course showing its teeth a bit more in RD 3 playing .135 strokes over par. There’s lots of birdies out there but also quite a few bogeys. Right around par will be a pretty good score this week.
There’s not a real ‘style’ that seems to be successful here. If we look back at last year’s top 3 they all got it done in different ways. Xander Schaufelle was pretty good everywhere, but was number one in SG: Tee to Green. Robert Streb was ok in his approach game, but his scrambling around the green was top notch. Jaime Lovemark was awful in approach and putting but gained a ton of strokes off the tee. What this means is that basically any type of player can win here and we may have to look at other stats to find the right players for our teams.
What is a Chalk Donkey?
First let’s breakdown what I consider to be ‘chalk’. Let’s look at each each price range and what is considered chalk there. (DK pricing is used for a guide)
Over 10K: >25% Anything over 25% in this range is considered chalk, and could even go down to 20%. Some weeks ownership is pretty evenly spread in this range, and some weeks one player gathers all the ownership and becomes a Chalk Donkey.
9K: >20% Again, any time over 20% of the field is on a player in this price range we would consider them a chalk donkey.
8K to 7.5K: 15%-20% This is a little trickier in this range, but I consider anyone over 15% chalk. DK has been jamming a bunch of guys in around 7.5k lately and we’ve seen guys get up there in ownership.
Below 7.5K: >10% Players are priced here for a reason, and oftentimes one or two become what I call DFS Darlings and garner a ton of ownership While you usually have to eat this chalk in cash, you want to swerve it any chance you can in GPP’s.
One thing to remember as you construct lineups, players are ‘Chalk Donkeys’ for a reason, they are perceived to be good plays. Don’t fade the ‘Chalk Donkeys’ just because they are going to be highly owned. Very rarely does no chalk hit, and often times you find some of these ‘Chalk Donkeys’ in GPP winning lineups. Fading the chalk is strictly a leverage play, in that if that player plays poorly you are in much better shape not playing them.
Key Stats this Week:
In this section, I’ll cover what I feel are some of the key stats this week. We get lots of questions in slack about what to look for in the RS and here are some of the things that I’ll be focusing on this week for the Greenbrier Classic.
Value Tab:
The first thing I look at every week when I open up the RS is the Value tab. Who is popping as a value this week. This is pretty easy to find as the better the value, the darker the green box. The value tab looks at Vegas odds and our projections, versus the salary FanDuel or DraftKings have assigned to that player.
A couple of names here that we see here on a regular basis. Andrew Putnam is starting to become a regular in this slot and this is a course that I really think suits his game and is somewhere he could get his maiden tour win (though he’s more of a DK play for me than FD). Scott Piercy is a regular as well as he always pops in the statistical model which projects him to score quite a few fantasy points relative to his salary, but he is someone who makes a LOT of big numbers and that can cause him to miss quite a few cuts.
CT Pan burned everyone two weeks ago but came back with a 17th place finish last week. JJ Spaun has strung together two good weeks in a row and has a top 30 here last year and is someone that needs to be considered, especially with his price on FD. Vaughn Taylor is someone that finds his way into at least one or two lineups of mine weekly, and will again this week as he provides a great value on DK.
Projected Course Score:
Projected Course Score is a stat that is unique to us here at DFS Army. It takes the average fantasy points scored on each type of hole on the course, and then adds them up to give you the best “course fit” players. We’ve had some real good success the last few weeks with this stat. Dustin Johnson topped the list and won at FedEx St. Jude, while Bryson Dechambeau was 3rd the previous week and won. Last week all 5 of our top guys in projected course score made the cut, with Rickie Fowler and Chesson Hadley both finishing in the top ten, Marc Leishman ended up T13, and Joaquin Niemann had a 17th place finish. This is another great place to look in our RS when building your player pool and has been right on the money this year.
Not suprisingly, the class of the field leads the way here and all are excellent plays this week, but its interesting that Patton Kizzire finds his way into the top five. He may be worth a shot in GPP and I’ll get to him later in the article. I actually left Chase Seiffert off this, he’s technically top of the list but his sample size is so small its not worth considering.
Fantasy Points/Par 4
There is no distance of par 4 this week that is overwhelmingly the most important, so I’m going to break down the top 5 of all three distances, short, medium, and long. With a Par 70 there are 12 par 4’s and how players score on these is going to make or break them.
Norman Xiong is making his pro debut this week and is an interesting GPP play, but his sample size is so small, we should really take it into account. Same goes for Seiffert. Niemann has now played enough that I’ll consider him, and its fun to see Phil Mickelson show up in these as he’s a guy I really like this week. He traditionally has not played outstanding here, but he’s a great fit for this course.
Tommy “Two Gloves” Gainey shows up anytime we sort this category and he’s in the field but I have zero interest. George McNeill and Robert Allenby aren’t even in the FanDuel player pool this week. But there’s my boy Phil again…
When looking at long Par 4’s, Scott Piercy always crushes, and we also see some of the bombers in this spot with Bubba Watson and Kevin Chappell. I’m very interested in Aaron Wise and Chappell this week. Both are great talents at price tags that don’t match their skill level (at least on DK for Chappell) and I’ll most likely have both in my player pool for GPP.
Strokes Gained: Approach
As usual, I love SG: Approach as it shows guys who are striking the ball well into the greens. To make birdies you need to do that well. If we look at the Results by Strokes Gained tab where we correlate finishing position with strokes gained category, SG: Approach comes out as the most important here historically.
As you can see through this chart, SG: Around the Green doesn’t appear to be a big deal this week, and actually those who gained less than a stroke finished better…why is that? Because those guys hit more greens and don’t have gain strokes around the green.
I sorted by last 5 as I think that gives us a better sample of what these guys have been doing recently. Brendon De Jonge shows up but he’s not someone I will personally be targeting but the next four are all interesting.
Kevin Streelman burned everyone last weekend. Bad. Myself included. Which means its the perfect time to jump back on him in GPP while everyone else is mad at him and letting recency bias make a decision for them thats not very smart. Streelman is a great play this week, especially on FD and I’ll be all over him.
Wonder boy Joaquin Niemann shows up here again and as always is a solid play especially since he sprays it a bit off the tee and won’t need to worry about that with the wide fairways. I’ll be going back to the well with Ryan Moore who burned me a few weeks ago with his MC but should have the right type of game to be successful here. He could put up a Molinari-esque performance if his putter heats up and just run away with this. Shawn Stefani is a punt option who I’m interested in looking at more for my player pool, especially at almost min price on FD.
Other key stats to consider this week, that I’ll get into in my breakdown of the chalk donkeys:
Driving Accuracy, SG: OTT, Adjusted Field Rank, Avg. Greens in Regulation Gained, and Fantasy Points Gained. I’ll specifically look at any changes in the Strokes gained categories in the last 5 as oppposed to the season for players.
Who are this week’s Chalk Donkeys?
In this section, each price range’s Chalk Donkey will be identified, and a few pivots will be offered. I use DraftKings pricing since that is where I usually play, but their pricing is usually similar to FanDuel and when a player pops as a value on one site but not another I’ll make sure to mention it.
Above 10K:
Tony Finau is the highest priced golfer in this field??? With Bubba Watson who has won twice this year? Thats crazy to me. As ownership has started to solidify this week it looks like there are two players up here who are going to suck up all the ownership.
Tony Finau: DK $11,5000/FD $12,000
I’m currently projecting Finau at over 20% ownership, which is somewhat surprising given that he is the highest priced golfer on DK and usually we see a bit of depressed ownership in that spot. Coming off a great finish at the US Open though at a course that can be misconstrued as a ‘bombers’ course though he is getting quite a bit of buzz this week. Is he worth eating the chalk here though?
Tony doesn’t do a lot of things poorly, maybe the worst part of his game is his accuracy off the tee and strokes gained OTT, but neither are indicators of success here. I honestly can’t find a reason to fade Finau here. He was 7th last year so he’s familiar with the course. I was entirely on board the fade Finau Train early in the week, but outside of ownership there doesn’t really seem to be a good reason to. If you want to be underweight I can get on board with that, but you should have some exposure to him this week.
Russell Henley: DK $10,400/FD $10,500
Henley should come in as the highest owned golfer this week, possibly even pushing 25% ownership and for good reason, take a look at the combination of recent form and course history.
Two top tens here? 3 top thirties in a row? Sign me up.
I think Henley is a smash play on both sites, but especially on FD where he is priced much lower and presents a better value. I’m not a huge fan of eating chalk up here but both Finau and Henley are great plays and I’m going to have exposure to both.
In the last few weeks it seems that a balanced lineup has been the way to go, but I don’t hate the lineup you can get in GPP’s by jamming together Henley and Finau, or even one of them with Phil Mickelson, and Bubba Watson, whom I have interest lots interest in as well.
I have zero interest in Xander Schaufelle up here as the defending champion. He’s just not consistent enough for me to play him on a regular basis. He pops, but he either top tens or misses the cut. Its a risky GPP play and could pay off, but for me I’ll be going elsewhere. Check out the projected course scores of the guys above 10K.
X is second to last behind Henley who I’m all in on due to course history and recent form. That Projected Course Score from Phil Mickelson is exciting and I’m probably going to be way overweight on him this week. He has not performed great here in the past but I think we are seeing a different Phil this year and as he gears up for another Open Championship I think he would love to get a win under his belt, weak field or not.
9K:
Only five players in this range this week, and two are leading the chalk charge, one I’m in love with and another who I again want nothing to do with.
J.B. Holmes DK $9000/FD $10600
JB has been getting quite a bit of buzz this week as someone the industry feels is under priced and provides a ton of value at 9K, but personally I feel he’s priced correctly and our RS tends to agree with me.
He has the lowest Projected Course Score in this range, as well as the lowest Fantasy Points/Hole. JB seems to always be missing one aspect of his game, whether thats putting, approach, or off the tee, he rarely puts all of them together. Evidenced by his tournament last week where he was also somewhat chalky and missed the cut after having just a horrendous iron game approaching the green.
Check out his last tournament, crushed it off the tee, struggled everywhere else. Even if we look at his last five and season long he’s not lighting the world on fire. This course may suit him a bit better as he can just bomb it and hopefully have wedges into the greens, but if he’s going to push 15-18% ownership, I’d rather fade and move to better plays.
Joaquin Niemann: DK $9700/FD $10400
Smash him on FD at this price, Jocko is a top ten value at FD and I really like pairing him and Henley as you get a very nice roster construction. Niemann is a rookie, but finished 29th here last year as an amateur, so he’s familiar with the course which is exciting because we aren’t always sure what we are going to get from him week to week. He’s playing at such an elite level that I just can’t get away from him. The huge benefit though is how well he is scoring.
He has the best Fantasy Points/Hole in the range and when his putter heats up he can go reaaaaal low. Which is what we want in GPP. I think he’s cash viable of FanDuel, but is a fantastic GPP play on both sites. He may end up higher owned than JB (I personally doubt it) but regardless this is the good chalk we can eat this week.
I have interest in Charles Howell III and will have quite a bit of Brian Harman as both are playing well and have games that should fit here, but I won’t be making a big stand on them. Jimmy Walker is a fade for me. He’s just not that good right now. Maybe he puts it together this week, but after watching him not only struggle off the tee but in every aspect of his game last week I won’t be rostering him.
8K:
Suprisingly, it doesn’t appear that this range is going to have a lot of chalk this week and maybe because guys are looking to go Stars and Scrubs and a balanced approach could really pay off if this range comes in under owned. The 7K range is loaded with chalk which makes me think that a balanced route may be a smart GPP play. I’ll highlight a few of my favorite plays for those of you looking to go that ‘balanced’ route.
Ryan Moore: DK $8900/FD $9700
Moore is one of my favorite plays this week as I mentioned above. He hasn’t played here in the past, but he has the game to run away with this thing if he gets hot with his putter. He struggled with his approach game last time out but that seems to be an anomaly when you look at his season long statistics.
When we look at his par 4 scoring he has some of the best in the field just behind Brian Gay. Moore is a former Ryder Cupper, and one of the most talented players in this range. Yes, were hoping he figures the putter out and I won’t be playing him in cash games, but he’s one of my favorite GPP punts as he has quite a bit of win equity.
Kevin Streelman: DK $8600/FD $9000
Suprisingly, it seems that Fanduel has the mispricing this week and its something we can take advantage of. Streelman is projected as the best value play on Fanduel in projections. He’s another guy who if he can putt just a little bit, could have a really good finish here. Should be single digit ownership coming off a poor Sunday performance. I’ll have him on both sites, but he will be part of my core on Fanduel at 9K.
Keegan Bradley: DK $8500/FD $9800
Keegan is the opposite of Streelman in that I’ll have more of him on DK than FD due to his pricing, but he will be a core play for me this week. He’s 5/5 in cuts made here and while he only has one top 5 finish (2014) he’s been playing much better this year than he has in the past and this course seems to fit his eye.
Those approach numbers are why I’m really on Keegs this week. He just crushes it into the greens and that correlates to high finishes here. Combine his improved play with his course history here and he looks to be a great value at his price at lower ownership.
Anirban Lahiri may end up being fairly chalky here after a couple solid performances in a row, but I’m not interested. He just isn’t that good with his Irons and while every course is a second shot course, this one appears to really be one.
7K:
Welcome to Chalk Donkeyville this week. With the way DK priced the field this week and some of these ‘scrubs’ playing well last week we for the first time in what seems like forever are going to have a lot of highly owned plays down here.
Andrew Putnam: DK $7800/FD 10,000
Until DK decides to price Putnam up, we will continue to see him in this article. Last week he disappointed at high ownership a bit finishing 27th in a weak field, but still hit value at his price tag. I would look for him to do the same this week. He’s never played here, but his recent form will help inflate his ownership. He’s not a full fade for me this week as I’ll have some shares but I will be well underweight the 20-25% projected ownership, mostly because he’s not a great par 4 scorer.
If we are going to say that par 4 scoring is essential this week, those numbers don’t light the world on fire or get me all hot and bothered, especially at high ownership. Putnam is a good play and fits the build of the type of player who has won here in the past (rookie, good form coming in) but at high ownership, I think theres a case to be made to fade him and hope he misses the cut.
Ryan Armour: DK $7700/FD $8700
Our boy from last week is now everyone else in the industries new favorite. I’m projecting Armour to push 15% ownership or even higher. He’s a player who has been trending in the right direction with his play recently, but this may be the time to jump off the train, especially on DK.
Here’s why I’m considering jumping off Ryan Armour this week while everyone else jumps on:
This is the power of the RS here at DFS Army, we can see trends. If we look at his season long statistics, Armour has been markedly improved in his last 5 events. Thats a good thing, but now check out the last event where he finished 2nd, HUGE improvements. My guess is that last week was anomaly, and we go back to the improved, but not THAT improved version of Ryan Armour. He could prove me wrong and keep rolling but I’ll take my chances that he comes back to earth and while he probably makes the cut, I don’t see him contending like last week.
So where do we go in this range if we aren’t going to play these two? Lets dive in and take a look.
Ted Potter Jr. is probably my favorite play in the entire 7K range. He’s a former winner here who, outside of the US Open, has just been racking up solid top 50 finishes, all the way back to the Masters. He’s short off the tee, but the altitude here should make it so that’s not an issue. He’s strictly a GPP only play but will be one of my core GPP plays, especially on FanDuel with a price tag of $8100
Other solid options in this range are:
JT Poston – Hits a ton of greens just can’t putt, also bombs it so should have wedges into a lot of these holes.
Brandon Harkins – Showdown golden boy for us last week. One of the best projected course scores in this range.
James Hahn – Great Course history, game is trending in the right direction. Should be underowned and someone I’ve been on for a few weeks now. I’m not getting off the train till we get paid off with a win.
Kevin Chappell – Boy has he been bad! Finally made a cut at the US Open of all places. Strictly a DK GPP play (priced way up on FD) based on talent and a decent course history. If playing to his potential he would have been priced in the 9K range on DK.
C.T. Pan – My second favorite play in this range. Projected to be a HUGE value for us, and the books as he’s 70-1 to win and priced up around guys in the 100’s. No real weakness in his game. Might even be cash viable.
Corey Conners – My sneaky top ten pick. Has a ton of game and can rack up the birdies, this course seems perfect for him.
Aaron Wise – Price doesn’t match his talent level. Has struggled since his win, but I like him to come out firing this week.
There’s a couple guys that I’m fading this week in this range that may garner some ownership and they are: David Lingmerth, Zac Blair (not chasing last week), and Robert Streb (two seconds in a row but was playing much better leading in)
Under 7K:
There is really only guy down here that is getting a lot of a buzz and its a rookie making his professional debut.
Norman Xiong: DK $6500/FD $7600
Xiong had an extremely impressive amateur career but will that translate to the professional ranks. Missed the cut at the Career Builder as an amateur and is now making his professional debut hoping to earn his first pay check. He may push ten percent owned as the industry is all over him. I’m ok being a week late on him. If I’m making 20 lineups I may throw him in one, but he’s a huge punt with a lot of risk.
A couple of players that I’m interested in firing up in GPP’s down here:
David Hearn has great course history and is actually finding his game a bit here after a 41st place finish last week. Returning to somewhere he’s pretty comfortable I think he’s a viable play.
Vaughn Taylor is a steady eddie but doesn’t have great course history. Has been playing significantly better this year and if he can putt a bit should have no problem making the cut in this field.
Can Patton Kizzire figure it out? This course seems like a great fit for him and he may be worth a flyer in this field. Lets not forget he won twice this year already!
Lastly, any course thats you just rip driver and not worry about it is a place that I like rostering Robert Garrigus. Strictly a GPP punt but worth taking 5-10% of in my opinion.
Weather:
Looks to be a chance of storms both Thursday and Friday but doesn’t really look like there is going to be a tee time advantage at this point. If there is I’ll be sure to let you guys know in slack.
Final Thoughts:
As ownership trends start to finalize this week, I’ll post some updates in slack and make sure to join in and ask any questions.
Join us in Slack Chat this week and lets win some money! I’ll be there off and on all week, but will be in helping build lineups from 9:00 to 10:00 PM CST on Wednesday night getting you guys ready to take down some huge GPP’s!
Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to this weeks event!