We did this awhile back, and it was a smashing hit with our VIPs. So, the debate came up in a staff conversation and I thought it would make a great roundtable question again. I asked for submissions from those that wanted to answer, and these are the responses I received. The question was open to coaches/staff of all our sports just to see if there was a common thread…
Question – How do you find the chalk?
mdellagnese14 [4:18 PM]
well @choppodong-eatschalk for the pitching side i think it’s kinda easy to figure out the chalk. Most people will play name brand people imo. Huge vegas favorites are normally chalky and people tend to go to the high priced guys it seems. when doing my research i notice the chalkier guys are the ones who are expensive. when cheaper ones are being talked about alot in “good spots” tend to be very chalky. i think twitter is a huge reason for some of the chalkiness too with a lot of DFS company’s and coaches etc talking about players. I cant remember EXACTLY who it was a week or 2 ago, but he was cheap and became very chalky by people all over twitter.
tex….just the tip.
dfsweather [4:55 PM]
@choppodong-eatschalk to look for chalk, look for the highest total games according to Vegas (likely against bad SP), batters #1-5 in the order, batters than have been hot, batters with good BvP and facing a pitcher of the opposite hand.
Loosmeister [5:05 PM]
Mark hit it on the head. You want to look at Implied team totals and top of the order. BvP is a spot a lot of casuals go to that boost ownership. Also, following twitter to see who is gaining steam helps as well. The most obvious one is mis-pricing of players. Such as when Bogaerts was 2k. For example – Balt 1-5 will be chalky. Coors seems under priced and will carry ownership – both sides. KC 1-5 + Gordon (gaining steam via twitter) will have ownership.
Identifying chalk was something I did for NBA and it went over fairly well in slack.
Thunder Dan [6:01 PM]
I also think one thing that can makes an offense chalky is team popularity and recognition. Everyone knows the Yankees and Red Sox are good and have good offenses and as soon as they get any kind of mediocre to poor pitcher guys wanna jump all over them
Cubs Yankees Red Sox are always gonna draw ownership just because of their large fan bases. I also agree with @mdellagnese14 on pitching and name brand recognition. Guys like scherzer Sale Verlander are guys everyone knows. The other thing is recency bias. If a good offenses goes tonight and has another decent match up tomorrow people are going to flock to them.
uw81 [7:26 PM]
@choppodong-eatschalk here’s my take on identifying chalk. While DFSArmy is great, we’re not the largest. Which means you want to look at what the largest sites in the industry have as their top plays either projections or article wise. Rotogrinders & Fantasylabs is where I look. Check out the top 10-20 players and they are always chalky. Using our tools, if you take the Research Station and look at the top 20 highest rated players and cross reference to vegas scores, there you go. Later in the day when line ups come out, if a value play pops up like a guy hitting clean up for 2k, guarantee he’ll be chalk. If Rockies are at home, they’re all chalk.
Also, if ESPN still runs DFS spots, whatever they say. RG and FL seem to have the most reach to the general public and the casual player.
dfsupnorth [8:16 PM]
Golf is a different then most other sports as you have a week to prepare and analyze who the chalk is going to be and there is a couple ways you can go about identifying who the chalk will be and if you can afford to eat it or if you need to avoid it to give yourself some leverage against the field.
1. Read my “Chalk Donkey” article. I break down who the chalk will be and who good pivots are in the same price range.
2. Get on Twitter and start following leading figures in the DFS Golf community. If multiple people are tweeting about the same golfer, there is likely something there. Guys like Pat Mayo can swing ownership 3-5% each way depending on if they mention a player on their podcast and like/dislike him.
3. That leads me into my next point. There are a ton of podcasts out there! Including one of our own, Taco. Popular podcasts like the Pat Mayo Experience, Golflandia, Fantasy Golf Degenerates, and Tour Junkies play a big role in swaying ownership, even among casual players. They also all talk about chalky plays themselves, and sometimes a good leverage play can be playing someone they don’t like.
4. Use our RS and the Vegas Odds/Course History/Recent form tabs in there. With Vegas odds, you want to wait until we account for for “drift” if a player has significant drift, meaning his odds have decreased by more than 10% from Monday to Wednesday, that player will usually be very chalky. Anyone with great course history, a couple top tens/twentys or win in the last few years is often very chalky. Anyone who is playing well is usually chalky well so look for recent form or a lot of cuts made in a row.
5. Get in the slack chat and start talking to other members. We have a great community here at DFS Army and that includes not only our coaches but also our members. They know things. Bring up a guy your interested and oftentimes people will give you an opinion, and with the amount of big winners we have here, you might want to listen.
6. Do your research and check the pricing. If you love a guy and then are blown away that he’s priced that cheap, guess what I’m sure others are too.
treyj989 [2:02 AM]
Finding the chalk is part art, part learned skill. Its a combination of Vegas lines/totals, public perception, human nature. Its obvious to go with the huge Vegas favorites. That can get you onto teams and players. The public perception aspect is who is being mentioned by the industry. People generally are going to combine those two aspects and expect them to be among the best plays. Now, we need to add in the human nature part. This is where the art comes in. People tend to flock to what they know. When analyzing a slate, be honest with yourself about what you know of the players on the slate. You are already a more savvy player than the field or you wouldn’t be here. You need to use the Vegas aspect and the industry and combine it with the question: what does the average Joe know about the sport and who are the big names. Each slate is different so the chalk on one slate might come down to super-public teams. On another it might be a few guys on a heater the last 3 games/weeks. The human nature aspect takes experience and will get easier the more you play. Once you understand people, this game gets a bit less daunting.
ericf [10:46 AM]
In MMA you have to treat cash and Gpp lineups differently. MMA is a different animal than most sports. In cash we are shooting for the best floor. So, I have no problem stacking a fight in cash. In GPP’s we want the highest upside. You really want to try and get 6 wins. I always like to stick to good bank roll management. I do 80% of my entries in cash (H2H, 50/50’s, Double Ups, 20% of my br in GPP’s.
choppodong [5:37 PM]
Finding the chalk is almost better started on smaller slates. If I was a newer player, I would start on three or four game slates and look for the obvious best play. It might be the only pitcher worth playing. It might be an obvious bat. But, that’s absolutely where you start when learning to find chalk. There are fewer choices on smaller slates, so you can find it rather quickly.
As you get better at spotting it on smaller slates, you will see common themes translate across any slate. Chalk is popular. So, who are the popular teams? Are the Yankees or Red Sox on the slate? If so, you will find chalk there if they aren’t facing a Clayton Kershaw type. Is Aaron Judge or Mike Trout on a roll right now? How about pitching? Is Max Scherzer one of only a few quality pitchers tonight? If so, he’ll be chalky. If there are others like Kershaw, Sale, Verlander rolling out as well, Max won’t be as chalky because the others will eat away at his ownership.
Chalk also chases points. How many of you wanted to run after Sean Manaea after his no-hitter? Guess what……so did everyone else. Did Scooter Gennett hit 4 HRs in his last game? If so, you can bet he will be chalky. Look for players coming off career games. If you see one that is also a household name, or on a household team, he will be chalky.
What about cheap players? Ahh….where do we look for the best hitters? Tops of orders or middles of orders. So, if you suddenly see a guy hitting leadoff at near minimum salary, he’s likely to be popular. Again, especially if he’s on the Yankees or a team that just put up 15 runs the night before. Sometimes, you even find those guys hitting 3rd or 4th, a place they will be VERY chalky most nights.
Remember, though, slate size matters. Don’t worry nearly as much about chalk on a 12-15 game slate unless something is incredibly obvious. On the flip side, definitely pay attention on a 3-game slate. But, as the slate gets smaller, the obvious plays get more obvious and easier to pick out.
Lastly, have you seen our ownership column in the Domination Station? It’s a great way to spot potential chalk. Simply sort the column from highest to lowest and don’t pay such close attention to the 42%. Rather, pay attention to how close to the top the guy is. The guys on top will be incredibly chalky most nights. The guys towards the bottom will be some of your lower owned players. If the lower owned players are in great matchups, you might have an easily identifiable contrarian pick. The only rule for the column is “Main Slate, 5 game or bigger.” See screenshot below for the column…
Projections drop around mid-afternoon most days and update much closer to lock (inside 30 minutes). Check that column often as you build.