CINCINNATI REDS @ ATLANTA BRAVES
* CIN: Luis Castillo – R
Castillo is 2-5 with a 6.50 ERA in 9 road starts this season – Needless to say, those numbers suck, but he does struggle mostly with lefty bats and ATL has plenty of them. We did see the underdog Nathan Eovaldi ball outrageous in yesterday’s Showdown competition… however, I don’t see that type of performance coming today against a much better-hitting ATL team. If you’re MMEing this sonbitch, you definitely want to have at least a few shares of Castillo since a big strikeout-performance can really elevate a pitcher in this type of contest.
* ATL: Sean Newcomb – L
3-1, 2.72 ERA in 6 home starts this season – Take away a bad start vs LAD (5.1 IP, 7 H/2 BB, 5 R, 6 Ks) back on June 10th, Newcomb has allowed 7 ER over 54 innings (9 starts) since the beginning of May. The logical option would be to go with Newcomb on this slate, but as you’ll see there are quite a few Reds that match-up well and have been hot over the last few days. I don’t think that Newcomb is a MUST in the Showdown contest on DK, but if you are going with a starting pitcher he’s the one.
BULLPENS:
* CIN:
Amir Garrett – (0.1 IP yesterday, hit w/ line drive in the game) questionable today – If we get word that he’s available, we’ll likely see him vs ATL’s elite lefty bats.
Jared Hughes – (2 IP on Monday) – Probably the safest bet to come out of the Cincy pen today. He’s got a 1.30 ERA/1.06 WHIP this season.
David Hernandez – (1.1 IP yesterday) hasn’t pitched b2b days in over a month, but he does have a 1.01 WHIP
Raisel Iglesias did throw 1.1 innings yesterday, and I suppose he’d be available to pitch today if the game stays close.
Michael Lorenzen – (0.2 IP yesterday, 0.2 IP the day before), doubtful that he pitches today.
* ATL:
Arodys Vizcaino is OUT – don’t even think about playing him.
Matt Wisler, Shane Carle = both pitched at least 2 innings last night = doubtful today
Peter Moylan, AJ Minter, Dan Winkler, Luke Jackson should all be in line to enter today’s game
– Jackson has been the most productive lately, with double-digit FPs in each of his last two appearances
REDS:
success vs pitch type:
FB: Schebler, Votto, Suarez, Duvall
CH: Schebler, Votto, Suarez, Duvall
CV: Schebler, Votto, Suarez, Duvall, Gennett
Scott Schebler and Joey Votto both have a lot working for them, as you can see above, especially with Newcomb’s reverse splits. Schebler has 4 XBH (1 HR) over the last four games, while Votto has a .500 OBP over the last seven.
Scooter Gennett is hitting .358 vs lefty pitching this season and it seems like he’s finally getting back in a groove.
Eugenio Suarez has some of the best numbers vs lefty pitching in all of baseball this season. He’s always in play, and that 1.128ops over the last seven days making it even more appealing.
Adam Duvall doesn’t have all these gaudy traditional numbers that everyone sees initially, but his xwOBA numbers have been solid all year. Much like Suarez, Duvall against lefties is usually a good idea under these circumstances, and you see above how well he does against Newcomb’s three most-used pitches.
Curt Casali is a nice cheap-cost option in all formats. We’ve used him on these weekday afternoon slates before with great success.
BRAVES:
success vs pitch type:
FB: Freeman, Swanson
SN: Freeman, Flowers
SL: Freeman, Flowers
* Castillo: allowed at least 1 HR in each of his last 6 starts
* Cincy’s bullpen has allowed the 10th-highest WHIP over the last 14 days
NOTE: Ozzie Albies is OUT of the Braves lineup today!!! GET HIM OUT!!!
Lefty bats are certainly the way to go against Castillo and you can see that Freddie Freeman is in a primo spot here with the splits/success vs his pitches. Freeman leads all Braves in ISO vs righty pitching
Nick Markakis, Ender Inciarte and Johan Camargo all look great with the splits vs Castillo. I’d much rather start my Braves structure with Freeman, but these other guys will work too. Markakis leads the Tier-2 Braves selection, hitting .346 with 4 XBH over the last six games.
Kurt Suzuki likely gets the start today after Tyler Flowers was in last night. He’s been fairly productive, with a .417avg /1.250ops in limited at-bats over the last week.