Welcome to the Shark Autopsy Report MLB Edition! Over the course of the remainder of the MLB season this article will deconstruct winning FanDuel lineups of contests where the dark waters of GPP contests are ripe with sharks. Navigating these waters where the sharks smell blood in the water is not easy, but the DFSArmy have you covered, providing you with the essential daily tools to help our VIPs turn into sharks! The article will be released twice weekly, with each day’s article looking at either single entry or multi-entry GPP contests. Each contest requires a different lineup construction.
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Today, DFSArmy members are in for a treat, I will be deconstructing the winning lineup of FanDuel’s $75K Wednesday Night MLB Squeeze Contest, which was won by DFSArmy member Dabbingpuggle – who by the way needs a DFSArmy avatar on FanDuel!
But first, I wanted to congratulate two other DFSArmy members who had 4 figure winning lineups, as well as other winning DFSArmy member lineups from Wednesday night. Congratulations goes to slack handle Sticks2U (Ronnied589 screen name on Draftkings – Get that member a DFSArmy avatar!) who took down the DraftKings $100 Single Entry MLB tourney and slack handle Rodgers12 (Arsenal221 screen name on Draftkings) who won the Draftkings $20K MLB Home Plate and took 6th in the Draftkings $175K MLB Fastball GPPs last night.
DFSArmy Takes Down FanDuel’s $75K WED MLB Squeeze
On a night where the highest scoring lineup in FanDuel’s large field $75K MLB Squeeze GPP did not eclipse 200 points, the winning lineup needed to have a low owned stack(s) to take down the tourney. DFSArmy’s Dabbingpuggle had just that with a lineup consisting of two stacks that were low owned and not playing in Coors Field, with Astros and Twins 3 x 4 hitters stack. At an average ownership of 3.57%, the Astros hitter’s stack of Altuve, Bregman and Springer paid massive dividends ($10K in dividends to be exact) for Dabbingpuggle, providing 83.8 FD PTs to go along with the chalky decision of rostering Charlie Morton! DFS players will steer away from the chalk in an effort to win a large field GPP, which you need contrarian aspects in your lineup(s) to win a large field GPP, but you also need those spots in your lineup that are in good position and that was Charlie Morton for Dabbingpuggle.
Dissecting Pitching
The opening Vegas Lines had Morton as the overall top pitcher on the Main Slate with a -260, and the lines closed with Morton as the overall top pitcher at -260. The props that were posted in the #MLB-News-and-Notes channel in Slack by AdotWalsh had Morton at Even for 7.5 strikeouts. Morton had a good outing on Wednesday night, going 6 IP, striking out 4, got the QS on FD and the win. Let’s look a little deeper at Morton to see why Vegas liked him for the win and 7.5 strike out prop bet.
On the season at home, Morton has fared well versus LHBs supporting a 0.237 wOBA, 0.141 ISO, 46.1% K-Rate, 50% GB%, 34.1% FB% and 37.8% HC%. The FB% and HC% are on the higher side than we’d like, but pitching in his home park that is rated as the 6th best park for pitchers per DFS Army’s Research Station, alleviated some of those worries. Morton’s reverse splits stats at home were a little more worrisome, RHBs had a 0.345 wOBA, 0.216 ISO, 19.8% K-Rate, 53.6% GB%, 23.2% FB%, and 27.5% HC%. As compared to LHBs, RHBs are hitting Morton but aren’t hitting the ball hard in the air. On the season, the Rays have been subpar, ranking in the bottom 10 in MLB in all 9 of the hitting categories the Shark Autopsy Report looks at. In fact, over the last 14 days on the road versus RHPs, they are hitting worse than on the season in 5 of the 9 Shark Autopsy Report’s hitting categories.
Putting Hitting Under Scrutiny
On Wednesday night, if you didn’t have Jose Altuve in your lineups you were going to have a losing night! At 3.9% ownership on Wednesday night, Altuve’s 2 HRs skyrocketed you to the top of the leaderboards if you were lucky enough to employ him in your lineups. Looking at the stats below for the Astros 3 man stack that Dabbingpuggle employed, Altuve, Bregman and Springer have been straight dealing over the last 14 days at home versus RHPs. Altuve supporting a 0.486 wOBA, 0.182 ISO, 216.86 WRC+, 0% K%, 60% FB%, and an astounding 72.7% HC%. WOW! Those are spectacular numbers and Altuve didn’t disappoint his owners on Wednesday night. Over the last 14 days, Bregman has had amazing numbers, he’s hot right now and has been crushing the baseball! wOBA of 0.539, 0.583 ISO, 254.08 WRC+, 75% FB%, and 66.7% HC%. Massive power and hard contact numbers spell one thing Home Runs! Bregman did just that with adding his own HR to the mix with Altuve’s 2 HRs night. Rounding out the trio was George Springer, who over the last 14 days has had highly respectable numbers of his own of 0.437 wOBA, 0.273 ISO, 183.32 WRC+, 33.3% FB% and 33.3% HC%. Springer was sensational on Wednesday night as well, adding a HR, RBI, and a Run.
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If that wasn’t enough, Dabbingpuggle’s lineup got two more HRs from his 4 man Twins stack courtesy of Robbie Grossman and Max Kepler!
Hats off to DFSArmy members Dabbingpuggle, Sticks2U and Rodgers12 for their 5 and 4-figure wins! Great job guys!
MLB can be a very frustrating sport in DFS with the extremes in variance, a hitter might be in a prime spot with amazing platoon splits or reverse splits against a gas can pitcher with woeful platoon or reverse splits and go 0’fer. Even the best in the sport go 0’fer on most nights, it’s the way of the sport. But, you need to be able to determine your process and keep the process consistent daily. When you veer away from that process you tend to produce, over the long haul, inadequate to poor performances and your bankroll is affected in the same token. Just keep Grinding and working on your process and good things will come!
DFSArmy’s MLB coaches and staff work diligently each day on helping improve their members process, and in the same breathe refining their own processes to each daily slate. The DFS landscape is every changing and being a part of a great DFS community helps you to better manage your DFS game and become a better player!
To put a bow on this for you and conclude this installment of the Shark Autopsy Report, there are so many statistics in MLB that it can be overwhelming as a DFS player. Know that you don’t need every single statistic there is to determine whether or not a player is a good play. Determine which stats within the Research Station provide you with the best information to make optimal decisions, read the DFSArmy coach’s MLB articles (Dong Detector, CeeGee’s Stacks, Chop’s Chin Music, Painting the Black with MDell, Walsh’s Wingmen, ThunderDan’s Dr. StrangeChalk, ThunderDan’s Weekend Covering All The Bases, Jaguar Lou’s GPP Jamboree and the Donut Shop by DFSnDonuts), utilize the DFSArmy’s evolutionary taking the industry by storm Domination Station Optimizer and we will help you become a better DFS Player!