Donut Shop – MME Playbook for MLB DFS on FanDuel and DraftKings
I have been discussing in this article and in our members only Slack about a theory on how to approach MLB DFS and specifically a method to MME (mass multi-entry) for both FanDuel and DraftKings. It’s a method I created to basically diversify your portfolio in a low-risk fashion while boosting your potential ROI by having a dart or two hit the top of the standings.
Rather than trying to identify the top pitcher, hitters, or stacks and going with “heavy exposure” on said targets, we are going to set minimum exposures on specific targets and allow the optimizer to flex its muscles and take a non-biased approach as to who and what are the most optimal options.
This hopefully will allow us to have exposure to specific targets that allow us to have a handful of lineups that are “in the hunt” for the top of the standings if some of the top targets bottom out and sink most of your lineups.
Also – if you’re new to MLB DFS or the DFSA, then this page should be open in a separate tab every single day you plan on playing.
Let’s get to work!
Pitchers for FanDuel
Max Scherzer (BAL 2.7 IRT, -256 Fav)
Tyler Skaggs (TOR 3.4 IRT, -146 Fav)
Brent Suter (STL 4.1 IRT, -127 Fav)
Zack Godley (@PIT 4.1 IRT, +104 Dog)
Throw a minimum of 7-35% exposure to ensure that you have at least 10-50 out of your 150 lineups with each pitcher). The guys you like the most should be at 35% and the guys you only want minimal exposure to “just in case” just put at 7%. Everyone else should be somewhere in between those two extremes. Aim to keep your total exposure to less than 75% which gives the optimizer 25% wiggle room to add in the most optimal pitchers for the slate.
I.E. if you add up all the %’s of the pitchers, make sure the total exposure %’s you have created equal no more than 60%.
Pitchers for DraftKings
Tyler Skaggs (TOR 3.4 IRT, -146 Fav)
Brent Suter (STL 4.1 IRT, -127 Fav)
Zack Godley (@PIT 4.1 IRT, +104 Dog)
Kevin Gausman (@WSH 4.5 IRT, +245 Dog)
*EDIT* If you’re doing the 150-max entry contests on DraftKings then use the same exposure settings as I put down under the FanDuel categories. If not then follow the advice for the 20-max entries in each of the subsequent categories.
Throw a minimum of 20-40% exposure to ensure that you have at least 4-8 out of your 20 lineups with each pitcher). The guys you like the most put 40% exposure on and the guys you like the least throw 20% on. Everyone else is in between. Because DraftKings has two pitchers we want to total no more than 120% (out of 200%) for all pitchers listed.
I.E. If you add up your %’s on the pitchers, make sure the total exposure percentage isn’t over 120.
Value Hitters FanDuel
David Peralta
Austin Meadows
Addison Russell
Kyle Schwarber
Jason Heyward
Ian Kinsler
Jose Fernandez
Kendrys Morales
Christian Villanueva
Hunter Renfroe
Wil Myers*
Remember, this list isn’t a “best plays” list. It’s a value list that you put a minimum exposure setting on so when the optimizer runs it uses the best value players in order to plug in the studs at pitcher and hitters. The better the spot and cheaper the guy the more salary the optimizer will have to load up on some strong stacks and elite plays.
Throw a minimum 7-20% exposure setting on 7-10 of your favorite guys from this category. This means that the 7% players will be in at least 10 lineups and the 20% players will end up in 30 (if you are running out 150-lineups). The guys you like the most put at 20% and the least at 7%. Anybody else you want to include should be somewhere in between.
Make sure that if you use multiple players from the same position, i.e. Chris Davis, Ryan Zimmerman, Lucas Duda (all at first-base), that their total percentage does not go past 50%. We don’t want to have more than 40% locked up in “value hitters” at any one position. Value hitters normally don’t have the greatest projections – they’re just value hitters to allow the optimizer to use their cheap salary/decent spot to be plugged in with elite batters and smash spots for pitchers.
The only position that can have more percentage would be outfield because there are three of them and that totals 300%. I would just use your discretion and make sure you don’t total anything more than 120% or so at the OF value hitter position. This likely won’t ever be an issue.
*EDIT* If you find yourself choosing several value hitters from the same team you should just NOT do that and instead run out a stack percentage for that team rather than having a bunch of one-offs of these high-value guys. An extreme value stack combined with a high priced stack and an ace pitcher can rocket you to the top of the standings.
Value Hitters for DraftKings
Anthony Rendon
Colin Moran
Addison Russell
Tucker Barnhart
Jose Fernandez
Kendrys Morales
Ian Kinsler
Hunter Renfroe
Throw a minimum 5-10% exposure setting on a few of your favorite guys from this category. This means each guy you select will be in between 1-2 lineups out of the 20-max entry MME tournaments.
Make sure that if you use multiple players from the same position to not go above 50%, just like the example above.
The objective of selecting value hitters is to give the optimizer your specific favorite cheap/value options to use when creating lineups. The algorithm then has some extra salary to make sure it can grab the correct studs and stacks.
Stacks for FanDuel
SD – 30%
LAA – 30%
MIL – 20%
CHC – 75%
WSH – 25%
I am rolling with a minimum scale between 10-75% each. You don’t need to worry about who is actually stacked from the team – just trust the optimizer algorithm to optimally slap it all together). As far as what stack setting, 4-3 etc. that’s all preference and you can run what you’re comfortable with.
*******I prefer to run the 4-4 setting when doing specific groupings. I.E. I want the Rockies stacked for 10 lineups and I want the Yankees stacked with them for 5 of them and the Astros stacked with them for the other 5. So I would set the optimizer to 10 lineups, 2/3 unique (preferably 2 for this) and Rockies team stack at 100% exposure. Then I would set the Yanks and Astros at 50% each. Run the DS – Download the CSV – copy and paste these 10 lineups into 10 spots on your “final CSV upload” file.********
Practice today if you need to prior to the slate locking because this is the best way to use the DS. Combining specific groupings with the generic strategy I lay out in this article is the perfect blend of high upside and safer MME practice.
Stacks for DraftKings
CHC – 75%
ARI – 25%
WSH – 25%
LAA – 25%
SD – 25%
I am rolling with a minimum scale between 10-50% each which will be between 2-10 total lineups (out of 20) stacked for that range. You don’t need to worry about who is actually stacked from the team – just trust the optimizer algorithm to optimally slap it all together). As far as what stack setting, just roll out your personal preference.
*******I prefer to run the 3-5 setting when doing specific groupings. I.E. I want the Rockies stacked for 10 lineups and I want the Yankees stacked with them for 5 of them and the Astros stacked with them for the other 5. So I would set the optimizer to 10 lineups, 2/3 unique (preferably 2 for this) and Rockies team stack at 100% exposure. Then I would set the Yanks and Astros at 50% each. Run the DS – Download the CSV – copy and paste these 10 lineups into 10 spots on your “final CSV upload” file.********
Practice today if you need to prior to the slate locking because this is the best way to use the DS. Combining specific groupings with the generic strategy I lay out in this article is the perfect blend of high upside and safer MME practice.
Wrap it up, dude!
Alright, so applying all of this information and strategy can be overwhelming. I am going to make a very condensed list with specific steps to follow. If you want more detail then you’ll have to read over the article itself once more.
- Open Optimizer
- Set global max to 50% for all players
- Do not X out any player in the entire player pool (unless said player isn’t in the final lineup and the automatic update missed it – which is RARE)
- Click the pitcher category and slap a minimum percentage on all of the players I listed using the scale that I provide you with for both FanDuel and DraftKings
- Select 7-10 of your favorite value hitters, you don’t need the entire list. Use the RS, our articles, the optimizer projections, DFSA grades and whatever other sources you want to settle on your favorite 7-10 value hitters. You do not need the entire list and you don’t want to corner the optimizer into using such a specific player pool. I repeated myself because people miss this step.
- For the stacks, select your preference for stack setup (I roll with 3/4 on FanDuel and 3/5 on DraftKings).
- Throw min % on the stacks I have listed for the team itself (not the players – unless you’re uber savvy and can do a lot of CSV editing) using the min scale I provide for both FanDuel and DraftKings
- Optimize
- Win money
- Tag me on Twitter and in Slack with your triumphant victory!
- Read this very important page…
- Seriously, go read the page…
- Myself and my friend Ram2787 put together this tutorial for anybody who needs help with the DS optimizer and CSV files when using a Chromebook or operating system that’s giving you errors. CLICK ME CLICK ME!
The only way to continue to perfect an MME approach is to continue to fine tune it. This is still in the trial phase and in no way shape or forms a “perfect approach”. This process will likely be tweaked and manipulated as the season progresses and the DFS landscape shifts every so often as it normally does. As always, I will continue to share my findings with you in the hopes that we are able to find an edge over our competition!
Fortune favors the bold. Go make your own luck!
– Donuts