Hey, hey, hey…..it’s your DFS MLB buddy @Choppodong!! I am a coach and contributor inside DFS Army, where our entire goal is teaching you the fundamentals that will make you a better, more competitive player as quickly as possible.
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Remember, this article is designed to get you pointed in the right direction. It’s not a slate write-up and it’s not a player picks piece. I would rather get you started, then have you interact with us in our VIP slack forums as we banter picks and strategies back and forth. Learning MLB the right way is the fastest way to grow your skill level.
DFS Army is about teaching first. This is a video breakdown covering the important parts of today’s slates….you might even get some tips as I walk through my process. Even I don’t know what I’m going to say… (June 20 – EARLY)
Above video has EARLY ONLY player pool in it. Main Slate will be broken down below.
Back to Basics
It’s always a good idea to know which teams are scoring runs and which are giving them up. I will simply sort by the last 30 days and rank the teams. Here are your top 10 in terms of runs scored and your top 10 highest team ERAs (worst pitching).
This week, we try to focus on playing the top 10 offenses where it makes sense and attacking the highest 10 team ERAs. If any of them should directly matchup, we look to exploit it pretty hard. I hope you picked up on how hot the Dodgers and Astros got last week. If not, well, you know now.
MLB DFS Pitching
We are always looking for the best combination of price, Vegas, strikeout upside, and matchup (ballparks, weather, etc). We will normally be looking to the top tier on Fanduel and will likely come off that a little so we can afford a decent SP2 on Draftkings. Generic rules like that always have exceptions. Be flexible. KScore is the pitcher’s strikeout potential with the opposing team’s vulnerability to striking out. The DFSA Grade is proprietary to our VIPs but will give you guys something to track in terms of a catch-all safety rating.
Main Slate Pitching Roundup
What to do with Jonathan Loaisiga? Sometimes, we just have to understand machines are off their rockers. There is no way this kid is some negative matchup in DFSA Grade. That number is just dumb. I get that he’s a small sample and facing a decent offense, but he carries a -180 out of Vegas indicating he’s not all that likely to just get shelled like the grade suggests. Newer pitchers generally have a small advantage over hitters because the hitter must react to what the pitcher throws. If you don’t know his tendencies in certain counts, if the pitcher can execute, he can throw you off easily. The KScore isn’t necessarily reliable at 505, but we know Loaisiga debuted with 5 or 6 scoreless innings and struck hitters out. I’m not claiming him the next coming of Roger Clemens (Clemens chosen to piss off you Yankee fans), but he’s not something we should just auto-attack with bats, either. I can see using him at $6200…..and people will.
Charlie Morton at $10000 feels unnecessary, but that’s great for GPPs. He’s not $12k like Kluber on the early. He also carries a decent KScore into tonight’s matchup and a massive Vegas favorite. Yes, I know Tampa did ok last night, but if you truly trust numbers, you just go back to the well understanding the numbers do pan out over the larger samples.
David Price and Gio Gonzalez round out my playable pitchers, and I might mix a lot of them into varying combinations of lineups tonight. But, I think I’ll be favoring Morton and Loaisiga in most of what I do.
LEARN TO WHIP THE COMPETITION WITH – The Domination Station Optimizer!!
MLB Pitching to Exploit
I’m not going into much detail here. Just rest assured if our DFSA Grades like the aces with high marks, they are going to hate the scrubs with low marks. In parentheses are the bats you should be stacking, especially when it’s also a high-powered offense….
MAIN
Eovaldi (HOU)
Cashner (WAS)
Dirkx (KCR)
Lugo (COL)
Hernandez (NYY)
Bettis (NYM)
Don’t stick purely to this list. These are the worst six on the slate. But, I could list another 13+ pitchers to attack today. There is some really bad pitching out there…..almost rendering this section useless today.
How about some more winning?! I change these screenshots like I change mistresses. Seriously, why are you just taking the free content? Why aren’t you in here receiving the tools, optimizer, and coaching? These guys are, and these guys are dominating the competition.
In case you can’t read the comment in the screenshot from @dradt, it says: “I usually try to set a lineup from my own research before turning to the articles and slack chat for confirmation if I’m on the right track or to pick up on something I have missed. I have really gotten a lot out of Chop, CeeGee, and MDell’s articles that have changed the way I put together a lineup. The army in general has made me better just through the articles and research station as it opened my eyes to things I never considered before….”
As a result, @dradt has won over $30,000 in less than a month. You’re welcome, buddy. Now, let’s work on changing that avatar to an army helmet!!
DFS MLB Bats and Stack Considerations
I focus on attacking the pitchers above, and I love it when I see Vegas supporting the cause or a high powered offense matching up with these attackable pitchers. I will then focus on the better bats within the offense and key in on our batters grading out over 75 in our Research Station. Bear in mind, I’m listing day-to-day and 10day DL guys, too. Your job is to follow the news, or plug into our Slack Channels and get the details as our slates lock for the day.
Main Offenses to Stack
COL – Arenado, Story, Iannetta, Gonzalez, Parra, Desmond
NYM – Nimmo, Conforto, Flores, Mesaraco
WAS – Rendon, Eaton, Turner, Taylonr, Soto
HOU – Gonzalez, Kemp, Altuve, Bregman, Correa, Gattis, Marisnick (if starting)
NYY – Stanton, Bird, Hicks, Gregorius
I did something different today. I used a combination of our Research Station you see linked throughout the article, but I also added in our xwOBA numbers from our “Starting Lineups” page. When you compare xwOBA to wOBA, you can really find some breakout candidates.
The names are all hitting well per xwOBA over the last two weeks, and should be to handedness of the starting pitcher. The names in BOLD also showed up in my normal hot wOBA over the last 7 days. Players on both lists will be my focal point today.
For more on DFS Stacking, see CeeGee’s article – MLB DFS Top Stacks
Final MLB DFS Thoughts
For MLB cash games, keep the stacking to a minimum. You can’t afford to grab stack Rockies in Coors and have them fall flat, which they occasionally do. ISO is a great stat to look at with wOBA for hitter-friendly parks. Remember to head over to DFSARMY.com, your one-stop-shop for stats, player recommendations, coaching, winning lineups discussion, and everything DFS related. Use code CHOP to trigger a 10% discount every month as long as you remain a member regardless of any future price increases. You are grandfathered in at your rate permanently!!
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