Welcome to back to the Wednesday edition of Dr. StrangeChalk, where I hope to give you some potential pivots for tonight’s 15 game slate. I go by “Thunder Dan” around here and you can find me @ThunderDanDFS on twitter. VIP members can find me in my channel #thunder-dan-mlb in slack.
This is the latest installment in an ongoing series in which I will focus on identifying the “chalk” and figuring out ways to leverage against it. This may include fading “bad chalk”, stacking an offense against a chalky pitcher, “flipping” your roster construction for the slate, or simply looking for similarly priced pivots who could outperform the chalkier plays tonight.
I am covering the main slate tonight (7 games) and if you’re looking for thoughts on the early slate, check out my slack channel for some thoughts.
***New to the army? If so, check out DFS ARMY BASIC TRAINING to help you get oriented to the site and our content.
What is CHALK in DFS? And How Do We Identify It?
“Chalk” is a DFS term that simply means a particular player will be popular in DFS contests. In regards to what percentage owned a player needs to be in order to qualify as “chalk” is relative to the size of the slate and at times the size of the contest(s) in which you are entered. A player who is 20% owned on a large fifteen game MLB slate is a lot chalkier than if it were a smaller eight-game slate. Tonight’s large slate should mean that ownership is spread out, so if we anticipate someone being really popular there are MANY different options, in CASH or GPPs.
Projecting where the chalk falls is something that can be tricky, and while ownership projections can certainly help, no one knows exactly who other DFS players are playing that night. Let’s review some of the criteria that are helpful for identifying the highest-owned plays each slate.
Vegas Favorites:
With pitchers, we are looking for guys who are -200 or better. Everyone wants a winning pitcher, especially on Fanduel with the 6 point bonus.
With hitting stacks, we are looking for teams with the highest “implied run total.” On a non-Coors slate, anything over 5 runs for a team is pretty high.
Recency Bias:
Everyone loves to plug in a hot hitter, or a pitcher coming off a dominant performance. But past performance is not always an indicator of future performance, especially considering that hitters are facing a different pitcher from night to night and pitchers are usually facing an entirely different set of hitters since their last outing.
Name Recognition:
On any given night, we see superstars carry ownership, and we can exploit that if that ownership is unwarranted. Casual players will click on Max Scherzer or Mike Trout instead of lesser known quantities, especially if they are jamming in lineups without much time to research.
Tonight’s Pitchers
I expect Charlie Morton chalk tonight, as he is a massive -255 favorite and has an excellent matchup with Tampa. Cole and Verlander both whiffed 8 and 11 Rays, respectively, the last two nights, however, neither was able to secure the win. I am sure DFS players will go back to Morton tonight, especially considering there are no true aces on the hill.
Morton is a good play, but he may not be the best play, which is why we should consider some other guys tonight. He’s also the most expensive pitcher, so if you want to stack Coors again (and you probably want to) then he does strap your cap space quite a bit.
I am going to skip over Gio Gonzalez today, and I hope he carries some ownership simply because everyone wants to pick on Baltimore. I am simply not a believer in Gio being an elite option on any slate. We’ve seen the bottom fall out the last few starts and I firmly believe he’s been pitching over his head for most of the season. Baltimore is loaded with right-handed hitters and after yesterday’s outburst perhaps those bats have woken up. I’m just not paying 9k for Gio Gonzalez today…moving on.
My pivots are going to be David Price and Chad Kuhl. At 8600 and 8400 on FD, they fall into what I like to call the “sweet spot” where pitchers often get overlooked. Price is likely underpriced for his talent and you could argue that Kuhl is a little overpriced based on his volatility, but I think many times players look at the top of the pricing and then usually look for bargains down in the 6-7k range. I hope the public skips over these two guys tonight, here’s why…
David Price has been consistently good now for a while after a rough patch earlier in the season. I’m well aware that Sale lost to the Twins last night, but let’s not ignore the fact he struck out 11 twins in that losing effort. Price has a nice history against Minnesota, holding them to a .228 average over 137 plate appearances with 28 strikeouts. I’m also counting on his offense in getting him the run support that Sale lacked last night, as I think the Boston hitters get to Lance Lynn tonight.
Chad Kuhl is a guy that I’ve changed my mind on about three different times this season. As you guys know, I am a Pirates fan so I watch all of his starts here in Pennsylvania. He has an electric fastball and a very effective slider that he uses to rack up strikeouts against right-handers. The problem with Kuhl has always been walks and hard contact against lefties. When his control is on, he can be dominant, and he put up his best game of the season against these same Brewers earlier this year.
I finally feel good about where he is at this point in the season from a consistency standpoint, he has given up three or fewer earned runs in his last five starts and has struck out five or more hitters in eight consecutive starts. I hope people are afraid of the matchup with the Brewers because I am not and I’m going heavy on my boy Chad tonight.
Tonight’s Hitters
I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that Coors bats should be the chalk again tonight. The Rockies and Mets carry the top projected team totals today and we’ve seen a lot of runs scored in that series tonight. Tonight we have two mediocre starters in Seth Lugo and Chad Bettis, plus two tired crappy bullpens so strap in because we may see a lot more offense yet.
Yesterday I mentioned that you don’t need to fade Coors to be contrarian. I played 50% Rockies stacks last night and I was surprised to see some guys like Arenado and Story at only 20% (possibly weather concerns kept ownership down a bit). It’s all about being different somewhere else. It could be at pitcher or it could be with the teams that you use as your secondary stacks or one-off plays.
Yesterday I jumped on the Nats hoping they would break out, and they did for 9 runs. I like going back to their lefty bats (Harper, Soto, Eaton) against Andrew Cashner. I also think the Yankees deserve some consideration against the once feared-now mediocre Felix Hernandez. The last team I’m highly interested in is the Texas Rangers who have been hot lately and get a matchup with a scuffling Jake Junis.
Final Thoughts
Learning how to leverage chalk is probably the most important skill in tournaments for DFS. Never be afraid to stray from the pack! DFS rewards “divergent thinking,” so trust your own instincts, and don’t be a slave to the projections. Decide for yourself who is good or bad chalk on any given slate and then play or fade accordingly. Take a stand on the plays you like, you can’t play everyone. Good luck, Army!