MLB DFS on FanDuel and DraftKings
Hello! My name is Mitch but nobody really cares who I am. I go by @DFSnDONUTS on Twitter and I really am not that exciting. However, I am always excited to deliver content to the DFS faithful. Researching and writing about Daily Fantasy Sports is an absolute passion of mine and I love to immerse myself in numbers. I am humbled to have you reading my column and I hope that I am able to bring you some success.
The modus operandi of this column is to deliver compelling evidence through analytics, trends, and useful data as to why a hitter is an ideal target to invest in. The hitters identified are on the verge of breaking out or are currently swinging the lumber like it’s a toothpick. Some of these hitters will be a foregone conclusion while others will take some courage to insert into your lineup.
Many of the statistics and research are found using the Research Station. Everything from wOBA and ISO vs the Handedness of today’s starting pitcher, to Average Exit Velocity over the last 14-days resides within this tool. Using this valuable resource will cut your daily research time in half and is very helpful for my fellow #DadLife DFS’ers.
Congratulations
Kudos to several members for nice MMA wins on DraftKings this past weekend, including two Qualifier ticket victories! A nice shout-out to the members who cleaned house in MLB a couple nights ago as well!
Breakout Batters
DJ LeMahieu is priced up due to the favorable matchup against the left-handed pitcher, Wei-Yin Chen. However, I believe he is on the verge of going on a ferocious tear due to his advanced stats, likely starting with this game on Friday.
Over his last 14-games, LeMahieu has a 46% hard-hit rate, 42% fly ball rate, 95 MPH exit velocity, and a 227 foot batted ball distance. He’s absolutely crushing the ball and the statistics will soon highlight this.
Another thing DJ has in his corner is his strong splits against left-handed pitching. He carries a .419 wOBA and .256 ISO against lefties which are both substantially higher than his splits against RHP (.099 wOBA and .158 ISO differentials).
Chen has been absolutely brutal this season and continues to get smashed by right-handed hitters. The Rockies have an implied run total of 6.8 runs and Chen’s 45% fly ball rate over his last three starts will only boost the probability of DJ and others’ blasting a few into the bleachers.
Joc Pederson is right in the middle of a breakout and yet his price has decreased on multiple sites. I would be doing a disservice if I didn’t mention him for this slate.
Over his last 10-games, Joc has 8 home runs and 5 doubles. Over his last 7-games, he has a 61% hard-hit rate, 66% fly ball rate, 94 MPH exit velocity, and a 270 foot batted ball distance. The cherry on top is his phenomenal splits against right-handed pitching, as he carries a .371 wOBA and .278 ISO into this matchup with RHP Zach Wheeler.
I don’t get the price drop but I don’t care to delve into why I think it might have happened. I’m plugging him in and not worrying about the why.
I write a daily MME Playbook, in which I write a full article detailing my personal pitching player pool, identify value hitters, and lay out which stacks I plan on using and what teams I will be targeting. I get pretty intricate with the daily strategy for MME (mass multi-entering) and even give out my personal advice for what percentage of exposure you might want to have on each team, player, and pitcher. It’s lead to 14-wins (over the last six weeks) ranging from the .25 buy-in all the way up to the $44 buy-in from various members and staff.
These various input parameters are then thrown into a VIP Tool that our members get access to the MLB Domination Station lineup optimizer. Powered by DFS Army proprietary projections the Domination Station will help you create 150 of the highest projected lineups in minutes. With features additional features that allow you to Like, Love or Dislike a player, you can create a fully unique pool of players to generate your lineups from every day. Combine the power of the Domination Station with our VIP Only Articles, and MLB Research Station to really take your game to the next level.
A quick congratulations to several happy members over the past week with a couple of GPP take downs using the MME Playbook on both FanDuel and DraftKings. For a full list of the big wins during the baseball season, check out our member testimonial page!
Marwin Gonzalez is quietly breaking out of his season-long slump. His price has yet to catch up to his recent production and he’s the type of value play that can win you a slate.
In the month of June, he’s 18-for-42 with 4 doubles, 3 triples, and 1 home run. He also has a 60% hard-hit rate (the 7th highest on the entire slate) and a 94 MPH exit velocity over that time frame.
The Astros have a 5.5 IRT and Marwin is a bargain at his current price and spot in this hot lineup.
Kole Calhoun is a guy our staff has been telling our members to play for a week now. Before the production came over the last three games he was really starting to make strong contact and have some quality at-bats. His ownership level should remain quite low due to the terrible season he has had, however, he is on the verge of breaking out in a special way.
While Calhoun is 4-for-10 with two home runs in the last three games, his strong advanced stats go back over the last two weeks. During that timeframe, he has a 55% hard-hit rate, 96 MPH exit velocity, 55% fly ball rate, and a 258 foot batted ball distance.
Daniel Descalso has put together a nice season thus far but looks like he has an opportunity to boost his numbers a little bit while he’s swinging a hot bat.
Over the last 9-games, Descalso has a 60% hard-hit rate and a 97 MPH exit velocity. His splits against right-handed pitchers (he’s facing a righty on Friday) are above average (.359 wOBA and .201 ISO) and his spot in the order is normally 4th or 5th.
Ivan Nova has had a pretty volatile season and over his last two games he is allowing opposing batters to tag him for a 32% hard-hit rate, 41% fly ball rate, and a 211 foot batted ball distance.
Descalso and a few other hot Diamondback bats could make for a really nice stack on this massive 14-game slate. The best part is that they won’t break the bank if you do end up plugging them in.
Wrap It Up, Dude!
If you enjoyed my delivery of information you have no idea the amount of analysis we release to our members. We currently have 3-5 articles each for both the early and main slates and a daily main slate podcast, in addition to the Research Station (analytics spread sheets with all relevant statistics needed), cheat cheets with Vegas props and odds, and lastly the cherry on top – our Domination Station (optimizer that greatly contributes to the massive amount of 6-digit wins our members have over the last calendar year). Please sign up HERE using promo DONUTS for 10% off!
Fortune favors the bold. Go make your own luck!
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