Greetings everybody, welcome to another NASCAR Xfinity preview with the DFS Army! I’m @nillyJay and you can find me on Twitter or in our Slack chat, where I’ve been busy with NASCAR and MLB discussions. How valuable are these discussions we have behind the scenes? Well, let’s just take a look…
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Hats off to all of our winners last week, especially to one of our MMA coaches @theDFSniper (CactusJack2) for his $10,333 win (with a hand-built lineup) using our VIP articles and Slack notes. I’d say the discussions we had paid off very nicely! We’re always looking forward to the next race, so let’s get right down to busines.
Michigan International Speedway
Next up is a 125-lap (250-mile) sprint at Michigan. A spirited sprint, really, as this the fastest track on the circuit. Not only is raw speed important here (like last week), it’s king this time. This is sort of the “easy” version of Pocono, as the turns aren’t tricky at all. In other words, we need the fastest cars in the field, as (most of) those clunkers in the back just won’t cut it! Before we take a look at the drivers, let’s first look at how the field has been doing these last five races:
As you can see, there is some hope coming from the back of the field. The key this week will be figuring out how to get something from the back while avoiding other 90% (you know, the landmines). We’ll discuss that more in Slack when the time comes, but for now, let’s take a look at who we have to choose from this week.
Monster Energy drivers
Kevin Harvick ($13,400) – Harvick returns in the #98 car, a very fast and capable machine. He dominated one Xfinity race this year already, and he’ll look to do it again on Saturday. The question will be, of course, whether or not he can pay off his salary.
Kyle Busch ($13,000) – It’s kind of weird to see somebody more expensive than Busch in an Xfinity race, but here we are. While his history here is plenty impressive, he’s only dominated a race here twice in ten tries. He’s also had two poles, but neither one of them ended with him leading a single lap. He’s an interesting dilemma with this price tag yet again, so stay tuned to Slack so we can discuss what to do here.
Alex Bowman ($9,300) – Bowman is making his Xfinity debut this week in the #23 car, the same car that Chase Elliott has been driving these last two races. We know the car is capable, as is Bowman, so I expect nothing short of a solid outing by the Showman this weekend. If you’re looking to leverage the “surefire” dominators (see above) with a bit of an upset/sneaky play, Bowman could pull it off if things go his way.
Paul Menard ($9,100) – Menard had a fairly quiet 8th place finish last week, and I’d expect about the same this week. He should be a fine cash play, but he’s going to have a pretty limited ceiling unless he starts from the rear.
Austin Dillon ($8,200) – Rounding out the Monster Energy drivers is Austin Dillon, who is more or less a cheaper version of Paul Menard this week. He did dominate this race for a bit back in 2013, but that was without the two monsters (known as the #18 and #98) in the field. I’ve noticed that he tends to go a bit underowned, even when he’s in a good position for us, so be sure to get some exposure if he starts deep in the field again.
Xfinity drivers
Elliott Sadler ($10,200) – Nothing has changed here except the race track. As usual, he’s as solid of a cash play as you can get, but don’t expect him to go out and win you a DraftKings trophy.
Justin Allgaier ($9,900) – I always love Allgaier as a GPP play when the big names show up. He may go overlooked, but don’t forget that he scored 81 DKFP back in March with both Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski in the race.
Christopher Bell ($9,700) – Bell was in the wrong place at the wrong time last week and had his race cut short when Allgaier slammed into him, so I expect him to be fired up this week. I always like him as a play no matter what, but I can’t help but feel that another “breakout race” is soon on the horizon.
Daniel Hemric ($8,800) – Hemric is turning into what Bell was earlier in the season; a fast, reliable option that DraftKings just refuses to price correctly. He’s performed well all season and has been just as good as almost anybody in the field recently. Take him at a discount while you can, because they might eventually get his price up to where it should be.
Matt Tifft ($8,100) – The same can be said about Tifft, who is just a step behind Hemric. Either way, he continues to impress, and the Hemric/Tifft combo has served me (and other DFS Army members) well on various occasions already this year. Both of these guys should be considered in all formats, especially if they start deep in the field.
Ryan Truex ($7,700) – For some reason, Truex had a price drop this week. Maybe it’s because he started 2nd last week so nobody played him, but I’ll gladly take a top-15 (with a possibility of a top-10) car for this price. Thanks, DraftKings!
Austin Cindric ($7,500) – Another unexpected price drop (maybe more surprising than Truex’s) Cindric has been performing very well lately and even finished 4th last week at Pocono. Anyone who can get a strong finish while allowing me to stuff in more studs, at a discounted price, is just fine by me!
Garret Smithley ($7,400) – On the other side of the coin, Smithley has been creeping up in price all season long. He’s not consistent enough to be priced only $100 less than Cindric, so I can’t recommend him for cash game use. Still, he has a pretty high ceiling (mostly depending on where he starts, but not entirely), so don’t be afraid to take a few shares for tournament use.
Kaz Grala ($6,900) – Finally, it’s our favorite GPP dart, who hasn’t been this cheap since the first race of the season. If you play MLB, he’s basically Joey Gallo (but with an even lower floor, if you can imagine that). Like Smithley, he’s always worth a sprinkle in tournaments, as he’s capable of going out and having the race of his life any given Saturday and returning a ton of value with low ownership. He’s even more capable of going out in a blaze of glory though, so keep him as far away from your cash lineups as possible!
Special sauce: everybody else – As I said before, this week’s focus will largely be on the back part of the field. After you make up your mind between Harvick and Busch (or taking the third option of fading them both), things are kind of easy…until you get to this price range. There are several drivers that I have my eye on, and I’ll be paying close attention to them during practice and qualifying. I firmly believe this week will be won or lost by using just the right people in this range and avoiding the rest (more than usual), so I have to keep the details for Slack and my VIP article tomorrow.
That’s going to wrap it up for now. If you’re still struggling a bit getting a process down, or you’ve never played and just need a break from MLB, feel free to read my beginner’s and intermediate guides to get you on the right track. And of course, if you’re not yet a DFS Army member and you want to join us for the more in-depth discussions we have in our Slack channels, along with access to all of our tools/resources, you can do so here. Don’t forget to use promo code NILLY to lock in that 10% savings. Good luck this weekend!