Welcome to the Friday Freebie RD 3 Showdown version of Chalk Donkey!
My name is Josh Thomas, and I’m a PGA DFS Coach at DFS Army and every week I look at who the chalk plays are in DFS Golf and who you can pivot to in my ‘Chalk Donkey’ article. I also provide notes/strategy content for the Showdown golf contests on Draft Kings and the Weekend contests on Fanduel for our VIP’s inside our slack chat.
This week I’m bringing that content to you for free as part of our Freebie Friday promotion! Our members have been crushing showdown contests on a weekly basis and its been what I like to call a ‘cash cow’ and ‘bankroll builder’ for our members.
As you can see our members have been absolute crushing Showdown slates recently, using the notes we provide every night in our slack chat. Want to become a member and get access to this insight after every round? VIP Membership Sign Up! Click here and use the code UPNORTH for 10% for life! Believe me, you want in, and it doesn’t just include PGA, it’s every single DFS Sport offered!
What is PGA Showdown?
Draft Kings has recently started offering contests for PGA/Euro golf that are only one day. This means that all that matters is what that golfer does on that day. There are no points for position or where they finish, it is strictly based on Birdies, eagles, bogeys, and pars.
As you can see from the scoring chart above, eagles/birdies are king. Bogeys don’t hurt you too bad, especially if you make enough birdies. Most of the time we are looking for 4 birdies, more often than not a player that makes 4 birdies will hit ‘value’ for the round.
Showdown Strategy:
So how do we build a showdown lineup? Should we just take the guys at the top of the leaderboard? They are the ones crushing it so just load up on as many as you can and you’ll win right? Not so fast.
Leaders:
How often does a player lead wire to wire in a PGA tour event? Since 1970, its happened 100 times. So just a little over twice per year. It’s already happened once this year (Brice Garnett, Corales Punta Cana Championship) and the likelihood it happens again is low. Just look at RD 2 for the best example of this. J.J. Spaun was tied for the lead after RD 1 with a score of -7 and went out and shot +3 in RD 2. Very rarely do guys go wire to wire so I like to stay away from guys at the top of the leaderboard, especially if, like JJ they are getting it done with their putter, and I’ll get to why thats important next.
SG Approach + / SG: Putting –
Putting is the biggest variable in PGA tour players games. They can lose 2 strokes on the greens one day and gain 4 on them the next. At the Fort Worth Invitational, Kevin Na, shot rounds of 61 and 62, both fueled by unbelievable putting performances where he gained over 4 strokes on the green in each round. His middle two rounds were 73 and 70 and he lost two strokes on the green each round.
So one effective strategy we found is to target guys who are gaining strokes approach and losing strokes putting and hope that it flips. Tiger Woods would be the prime example in RD 2. He was gaining .442 strokes approach in RD 1 (not great, but not horrible) and was losing -1.198 strokes putting. Anytime we have more than a stroke difference between those two numbers they become a target for showdown. In RD 2 Tiger flipped his putting by almost 3 strokes, gaining 2.052 strokes with his flat stick and shot -5 with 7 birdies, making him a fantastic showdown play.
Now back to JJ Spaun. He was in the lead and made 7 birdies, we should smash him right? Nope, not when he’s getting it done with his putter. In RD 1 Spaun had 7 birdies and gained 2.454 strokes putting and only .82 strokes approach. That screams regression. And guess what he did in RD 2? Shot +3 with 6 bogeys.
Tee times:
For whatever reason, players who finish round two in 50th to 60th position crush in round 3. And its actually not even close.
Players in that 51-60 position shoot almost half a stroke better than the other nearest range. We have seen this play out on a weekly basis by targeting the guys here in the best position and watching them go nuts climbing up the leaderboard. Whether its them getting basically untouched greens early in the morning, or that there is less pressure sitting that far back on the leaderboard, whatever the reason is, targeting these players in RD 3 has been an extremely profitable strategy.
Fantasy Points Gained/Round
In our research station at DFS Army we have a tab that is strictly for showdown and shows how many fantasy points are gained per round by each player based on the specific round. This is huge and a great way to identify guys in great spots. We also have it sorted out by AM/PM to see if someone scores better in the morning or afternoon traditionally.
Here’s the top ten scorer’s for RD 3 in terms of Fantasy Points. (Trey Mullinax missed the cut, so I included the next best scorer)
Get ready for tomorrow’s World Cup action! The Knockout Stage starts tomorrow morning and Trey and Sniper have you covered. Check out the article for tomorrow here World Cup Knockout Stage Day 1 Article and we also have a research station for that up and running showing who is taking set pieces, formations, odds, and everything else you need to make a winning lineup World Cup Research Station
Now, lets take a look at who is in play for tomorrow…
Round 3 Showdown:
Brandon Harkins: DK $7000
Brandon’s in a great spot tomorrow as the third tee time off as he’ll get on the course before it gets HOT tomorrow in the DC area (will hit 100+ degrees). He gained 1.74 strokes approach today which is good for 15th in the field, while gaining just under a stroke putting. Not a huge differential, but the fact that he made 6 birdies today makes up for it. T15 in the field in birdies. Traditionally not a great RD 3 scorer, but I really like the spot he is in tomorrow if he can hit a couple more greens.
Andrew Landry: DK $7,700
Had a rough round today after leading following RD 1. I’m looking for a bounce back round and he should be low owned. Absolutely crushed in RD 1 and then his putter went ice cold in RD 2, losing -2.39 strokes on the green. Didn’t have a great approach game in RD 2 either, but still gained strokes and theres a significant gap between the two. 3rd best RD 3 scorer in the field. He’s in a crush spot and should be low owned. Lock him in.
Gary Woodland: DK $8,200
He’s just bubbling and ready to pop. Had a poor approach game in RD 1 and a poor putting session in RD 2. Puts both together and he’s going to go low. This course is perfect for Gary and he’s a guy who we at DFS Army targeted for the 4 round contests. Another key to showdowns is sticking to guys who you identified as good plays during the week. Most of the time they pop at some point. If he puts the putter and approach game together he can go super low tomorrow. 8th best RD 3 fantasy scorer in the field.
Low owned GPP Punts:
Ted Potter Jr., Ryan Blaum, Alex Cjeka, David Hearn.
One Player to AVOID:
Beau Hossler: DK $10,100
I’m always into fading the leader, but Beau Hossler is screaming for a negative regression tomorrow. He’ll be the mega chalk because he’s leading but I think he’s in a spot to fall back. He’s basically getting it done with his putter and his putter alone as evidenced by the putts he made on 18 today and 9 yesterday. (36 feet and 32 feet respectively) He’s not horrible tee to green, but if that putter goes cold he’s in trouble. He finds himself atop the leaderboard off in the final group tomorrow and he has faltered there in the past. If I’m taking someone there I’ll have Ryan Armour, the crafty vet who gained over 5 strokes approach today!
Alright, thats it for tonight. I’ll have some other insight in slack chat later tonight. Not a member yet? Sign up here and get in tonight! VIP Membership Sign Up!
Remember, Code UPNORTH gets you 10% off for life!