Every week of the year the PGA Tour plays on a new course. There are some examples in other DFS Sports of environments impacting performance, such as Coors Field in Baseball; Golf, however, offers an entirely unique environment each and every week. This article will break down the week’s PGA course and attempt to find what skill sets are needed for success. This article will then combine the course breakdown with the DFS Army Domination Station & VIP Research Station and give a few players to target on DraftKings and FanDuel in both Cash Game and GPP formats. For more updates throughout the week follow me on twitter @_bschnarr
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AT&T Byron Nelson Recap
Jordan Spieth
I wrote up Jordan Speith and mentioned using him in GPP’s will come down to how we expect his ownership to land. Within our SlackChat I mentioned how I thought Spieth would be owned right around 30% and that I would personally be underweight on Spieth at around 15% ownership within my own GPP lineups. Spieth finished tied for 21st and was outscored by many other players within his salary range.
Brendan Grace
Brendan Grace ended up being one of my favourite plays of the week and was my highest owned player across GPP’s at 40% total ownership. As the week went along I discussed how Grace will be used heavily within my cash and GPP lineups. Grace’s third place finish certainly helped many of my lineups finish in the green for the week.
Charles Howell
I expected Howell to be heavily owned and decided on fading him within GPP lineups and playing him in cash game formats. The play worked for cash games but really backfired in GPP’s as the T9 finish would have helped many of my lineups.
DraftKings $8000-$8500 range
I mentioned how this range can often result in low ownership. I felt with many paying up for Jordan Spieth and others focusing on a balanced lineup would result in players within this range being under owned. As the week went on it became clear that Grayson Murray would likely be the highest owned within this range which led me to both Russell Knox and Scott Piercy as core plays for me for GPP’s. With both being owned right around 7% the gamble of playing both paid off as they both scored over 80 DraftKings points for the week.
Course Preview
The Fort Worth Invitational is taking place at Colonial Country Club, a par 70 measuring 7,209 yards. The course is one of the tougher tests we see on tour. Although the course is not overly long, it features some of the smallest greens on tour. Looking at past winners we see a theme emerge of similar golfers at the top of the leaderboard. Kevin Kisner, Jordan Spieth, Adam Scott and Zach Johnson are all recent winners. None of these guys bomb the ball off of the tee but they are all great approach players. Like most weeks, Shots Gained: Approach will be the most important statistic for me on the weekend.
Using our VIP Research Station, I will be focusing more so on wedges and iron statistics for players with many shorter approach shots
Another important thing for this week, the field is only 120 players instead of 144. The smaller filed does shift strategy slightly for me when constructing lineups for both cash games and GPP’s; this is something I will be going over more in our SlackChat.
Finally, because we have often seen a similar type of player finish atop the leaderboard and many players have shown repeated success at this course I will be weighting Course History a little more than I usually do.
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Interesting plays
Jordan Spieth
Just like last week Spieth is the highest salary, however it feels a lot different this week. Spieth seemed like the obvious play last week for so many reasons, and although his T21 finish was not bad it was not what people expected. With everyone on him last week we could easily see the ownership come back down with more options and what feels like an off week for those who rostered him. I think the ownership comes down which will get me on Spieth but it that could easily change as the week progresses.
Brooks Koepka
Any worries surrounding his injury have been put to rest and with what seems like a relatively low salary on DraftKings could result in big ownership for Brooks this week. Koepka is a player who can adapt his play to any course and is one of my main targets early on this week.
Kevin Kisner
The defending champion is coming in on a bit of a cold streek. In 2018, Kisner has only had one top ten finish through 11 starts and has only made only 6 cuts in that stretch. In his last two events Kisner has failed to make the cut. The fact that he won here last year makes Kisner an interesting discussion point as he fame into the event last year in similar form (a missed cut and a T56).
Aaron Wise.
It will be very interesting to see what Aaron Wise’s ownership ends up being this week. With a big salary increase Wise’s name will stick out to many when compared to other players within his range. However, Wise just won and finished 2nd two week prior. Will his recent performance propel his ownership upward or will the salary increase keep people of off Wise?
Kevin Na
Na became the de facto chalk last week given the weak field and his cheap price. While everyone was on Na he played great. finishing tied for 6th on the week. Now, we should expect plenty of ownership to be on Na once again. I will definitely be discussing Kevin Na, as well as this whole price range of players more in SlackChat.
Nick Watney
Watney has been quietly one of the safest, most consistent options for DFS players all season long. Although he only has one top ten, Watney has made the cut in all nine of his appearances in 2018. Watney will likely end up in my final cash lineup although I am still unsure what I will be doing in GPP’s.
With three writers, there are lots of opinions being given out to VIP members later in the week closer to lock. I will be going over all of these plays and my thoughts for cash later in the week on our company SlackChat.
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