Welcome to the daily MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com
K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.
An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite
BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.
xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.
SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.
Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.
wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.
O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone
Z-Swing% = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone
Swing% = Swings/Pitches
O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone
Z-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone
SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches
MAIN SLATE
Luis Severino (10.3k FD) (11.2k DK) (21.2k FD2) vs LAA
We have many different pitching options tonight, and I will start with Severino. Severino has been the Ace of the Yankees staff this year and is pitching right up to the expectations. Across 10 starts, he has a 2.94 SIERA, with a 47.8% GB rate and suburb 30% strikeouts rate. The Angels are a team who doesn’t usually strikeout a ton, but they still have a 21.2% K rate vs RHP in their L14. He has faced them once before this year and scored us 40 fanduel points. Since then though, he has scored 67, 49, 46, and 37. Severino has lasted at least 6 innings in all but 2 starts this year too. He’s priced up there, but there are a bunch of options tonight and Severino could be low owned tonight.
Max Scherzer (12k FD) (14k DK) (27.2k FD2) @ MIA
WOW, Scherzer is VERY expensive tonight. I actually think he could be the lowest owned of the top tier because he’s so expensive. Miami has been a bit hot of late, but it won’t matter tonight. Scherzer has an insane 40.9% K rate this year, just 6% walk rate and a 0.85 WHIP. He has the lowest SIERA I’ve seen for a starter in a long time of 2.05. I do not want to waste too much time with Max, he’s amazing and we all know that. If you can afford him, use him in all formats.
Noah Syndergaard (10.6k FD) (10.5k DK) (20.6k FD2) @ MIL
I was not too high on Syndergaard at first but ended up liking him a lot. The Brewers have been a VERY hot team of late, but we know their ability to strike out. Over their L14 vs RHP, they have the 2nd highest K% at 26.5%. When we look at their L7, that % goes up to 28%. They are a big boom or bust team and I will take advantage of their elevated strikeout rate. Noah has a solid 27.8% K rate this year and isn’t walking many hitters (about 2 per 9). Syndergaard doesn’t give up much hard contact and has a 3.00 SIERA this year. He’s always been more of a groundball pitcher and is still near 50% this year. With all of the options on this slate tonight, I think Syndergaard will be overlooked and that makes me love him more. I was talking to @jaguarlou this morning, and we found the Brewers have 64 strikeouts in their last 6 games. YES, that’s an average of 10.6 per game. Last time he faced these Brewers he struck out 11, and I think that is possible again here tonight, if not more. I love him in all formats at low ownership.
Jon Gray (7k FD) (7.4k DK) (14.7k FD2) vs CIN
Before you say anything, yes I know this game is at Coors Field. Gray has been very good this year, though his WHIP is concerning, he still has a 26% K rate and just 5.4% walk rate. Even pitching at Coors, he has a 3.21 SIERA and is getting 46% groundballs on the season. Gray has elite strikeout upside and has hit 10+ twice this season. Before his last start vs the Giants, he scored 28, 55, 46, and 61 fanduel points. 3 of those starts came at home too. Over their L14 they have a 25% K rate, and over their L7 they jumped to 28.2% vs RHP. Gray can definitely struggle, but the upside is there for 10+ K’s against the Reds here. I doubt people will be on him because he’s throwing in Colorado, but that is when we jump on him for GPPs.
Corey Kluber (11k FD) (10.8k DK) (21.1k FD2) vs HOU
I’m not on Kluber as much on fanduel tonight, but I do love his price on DK and FD2. He’s priced lower than Severino, Scherzer, and Paxton on DK but the 2nd highest on fanduel. I am usually iffy on pitchers facing the same team in back to back starts but Klubot is still elite. Houston has been hot, but he just got 10 K’s against them in his last start and can easily do it again. Before his start against the Astros, his strikeouts were a bit down but I’m not too concerned with it. Kluber still has a 26% K rate and a WHIP at just 0.84. He has a 33% K rate against the Astros roster in 120 at-bats too. I like his price more on DraftKings than Fanduel tonight.
James Paxton (9.7k FD) (11.9k DK) (23.2k FD2) vs MIN
Well, just had a play I like more on DraftKings, now Paxton I like way more on fanduel. His price on DK and FD2 is just absurd but he’s way more manageable on fanduel tonight. Aside from 2 starts this year, Paxton has been amazing for the Mariners. After his run of 10 and 16 K games, he went back down to the norm. He’s averaging 40.20 fanduel points this year, and that’s near the top on the slate. He’s pitching with a 3.14 SIERA and 31.5% K rate on the season thus far. Paxton is more of a fly ball pitcher this year which could be worrisome against the Twins. The Twins do have a 23.5% K rate over their L14 vs LHP and Paxton has elite strikeout upside. He is a better play on fanduel for me tonight.
Ross Stripling (6.7k FD) (7.2k DK) (14.5k FD2) vs SD
We always like to pick on the lowly Padres when they play. Stripling has been very good in his last 3 games and has shown amazing strikeout upside. Last start vs Washington he put up 52 fanduel points and had 9 strikeouts over 6 innings of work. Stripling has a 27.8% K rate between the bullpen and starting this year and has a 3.07 SIERA with 25% Hard contact allowed. San Diego is striking out 23.4% of the time to RHP in their L14 and they have a low 67 wRC+ with a .264 wOBA. The Padres will likely have numerous lefties in their lineup and lefties have had more success against Stripling this season. I do think he will be a bit chalky, which could take me off of him, but he is cheap and allows you to get a ton of different hitters tonight.
Fernando Romero (6.3k FD) (7.7k DK) (15.7k FD2) @ SEA
Another play that I like a lot more on fanduel tonight. Usually, I do not like to pick on Seattle, but they do have some injuries and haven’t scored more than 3 runs in their last 4 games. This kid had his first rough outing in the bigs but still was able to go 5 innings. Throughout his career, he has been a groundball pitcher and that can always be beneficial. So far in the MLB, he has a 24.4% K rate and just over a 1 WHIP. Seattle still hasn’t been striking out a ton, but I do think Romero has the stuff to get these hitters out. He has actually been a lot better vs LHH so far, but SEA does not roll out very many usually. I think Romero is worth a shot tonight in GPPs.
Sam Gaviglio (6k FD) (5k DK) (9.9k FD2) @ PHI
This play is for the strikeout upside I think Gaviglio has tonight. Sam was outstanding in AAA this year for the Jays with almost a 27% K rate and just 3.7% walk rate. Those numbers have transitioned in his 3 outings in the MLB with the Jays. He has a 29.3% K rate and 4.9% walk rate thus far allowing just a 1.03 WHIP. Yes, it is only 3 outings, so it is hard to see how he will do for the duration of a season in the MLB, but the spot is amazing for him tonight. Over their L14, the Phillies are below average in wRC+ and have a 25.3% K rate. Over the last week vs RHP, the Phillies have a 27.4% K rate and just 66 wRC+. They also have just a .267 wOBA which is down almost 30 points from their L14. Gaviglio I believe has upside at a dirt cheap price tonight.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Max Scherzer (all formats)
- Noah Syndergaard (all formats)
- Luis Severino (all formats)
- James Paxton (all formats)
- Corey Kluber (all formats)
- Sam Gaviglio (GPP, SP2 viable on DK in cash)
- Ross Stripling (GPP, SP2 on DK in cash viable)
- Fernando Romero (GPP)
- Jon Gray (GPP)
We have a MASSIVE slate tonight with a lot of stud options. All of the plays listed as “(all formats)” can all be interchanged in rankings. I do like them all for cash games, find the hitters you like tonight, then roll out one of the plays you feel comfortable with! Good Luck DFSA!