Pitching Breakdown

Thursday, May 3^rd, 2018

In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.

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I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.

Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!

NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that in the write-up!

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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com

K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.

An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite

BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite

BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.

xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.

SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.

Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.

wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.

O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone

Z-Swing%  = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone

Swing% = Swings/Pitches

O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone

Z-Contact%  = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone

SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches

Yesterday’s Results: (here I will post fantasy points from previous day’s picks)

1. Aaron Nola (52 FD) (30.75 DK)
2. Stephen Strasburg (58 FD) (32.95 DK)
3. Sean Newcomb (55 FD) (33.95 DK)
4. Dallas Keuchel (31 FD) (16.15 DK)
5. Luis Severino (67 FD) (40.65 DK)
6. Dylan Bundy (9 FD) (2.2 DK)
7. James Paxton (73 FD) (44.15 DK)
8. Zack Godley (34 FD) (16.7 DK)

Note: Paxton and Godley I had some interest in for GPPs last night and that was noted in the article before the Rankings section so I wanted to add their points too!

 

Early Slate

Julio Teheran (6.4k FD) (6.9k DK) (13.9k FD2) @ NYM: Probably not the first pitcher you want to see listed, but hear me out. His strikeouts have been up this year compared to last year (+4%), which is a good sign. He’s only had 2 road starts this year, and one was against the Phillies who have been able to mash pitching this year. His other start he scored 37 fanduel points against Washington. He just faced this Mets team 2 starts ago and went 7 innings with 6 K’s scoring 43 fanduel points. I’m throwing away his last start because he left early too. The Mets just got shut down by Sean Newcomb last night, and yes he’s a lefty, but the Mets aren’t really hitting anyone right now. They rank in the bottom half of wRC+ and have a decent 21.5% K rate. The Mets have seen Teheran A LOT with 224 at-bats. They are hitting a combined .223 with a .296 wOBA and just 8 HR. 8 may seem like a lot, but its only about 3% of the at-bats which is very low. He also has a 21.8% K rate which is not awful. Pure GPP play for me, but I think he is worth a shot.

Carlos Carrasco (9.2k FD) (12.1k DK) (23k FD2) vs TOR: Carrasco opens up as a -200 favorite here against the Blue Jays and he’s a pitcher who throws a slider and near 30% too. Carrasco was HORRIBLE last start and I believe he will turn it around here this afternoon. I still want to see more strikeouts out of him as he was getting near 10 K/9 last season and is only at 7.58 K/9 right now this year. He’s pitching with an average of 3.77 SIERA which can be improved on but is only getting hit hard 25.5% of the time. He’s still not walking many hitters which is good and getting a generous 12.6% swinging strike rate with a career-high 36.3% O-Swing%. He’s getting a high 25% whiff rate on his change-up and 20% on his slider, which we know the Blue Jays struggle with sliders. He’s actually allowed a lower wOBA against LHH this year so far but limiting both to under a .275. The Jays will probably have 3 lefties/switch and 6 righties and it looks like Donaldson COULD make his return tonight. He’s fairly split neutral but in 53 at-bats against 7 of the Jays he limits them to a .208 average and .295 wOBA which is inflated but the one guy who has crushed him (Granderson who is 5-12 with 2 HR off him). Carrasco will probably be the chalk on this early slate today.

Lance McCullers (9k FD) (9.1k DK) (17.9k FD2) vs NYY: I do not usually like throwing pitchers against the Yankees, but they have been striking out a ton lately so it is worth a shot in large GPPs. They have success against him in 36 at-bats, but this series has been very low scoring. I do think this could change in this game, but McCullers has elite strikeout stuff. From watching a ton of Yankee games, I know they can have the tendency to swing at a ton of curveballs. He’s been elite with 31.7% K rate and 2.85 SIERA and able to get 61% groundballs this year. I think the Yanks may have a hard time this afternoon and Tanaka has AWFUL numbers against the Astros. I hate to say it, but I do think the Astros take this game and McCullers has a good outing. McCullers has also been outstanding at home limiting hitters to a .214 average with just .267 OBP and .240 wOBA. The Yanks will likely have 5-6 righties in their lineup where Lance has gotten 67% groundballs against! He’s one of those great upside GPP plays on this slate today.

Patrick Corbin (10k FD) (12.5k DK) vs LAD: Corbin has been simply amazing this year and I will keep writing him up in good matchups. Last start against these Dodgers he scored 68 fanduel points. He has not had a start under 34 this year and has gone at least 6 innings in all but 2 of his starts, snagging NO less than 7 strikeouts in EVERY START. Yes, you read that right. His K% is still a very high 36.7% and he isn’t allowing many walks so far this season. He’s pitching to a 2.11 SIERA, that is AMAZING. Lowest that we have seen in a while and he gets 54% groundballs in the process. The Dodgers have been pretty good lately against LHP and are not striking out a ton, but we simply cannot ignore how amazing Corbin has been this year and has already shut down this Dodgers team once. Corbin has been lights out at home allowing just a .116 average, .153 OBP, and .168 wOBA allowing just 4 earned runs in 28 innings. LAD will likely roll out 7 righties today and he’s actually gotten a higher K% to them and pitched better overall against RHH. I love Corbin in this spot for whatever slate sites decide to put him on.

EARLY SLATE RANKINGS

1. Patrick Corbin (all formats, whichever slate he’s on)
2. Carlos Carrasco (all formats)
3. Lance McCullers (GPP)
4. Julio Teheran (GPP)

 

Main Slate

 David Price (7.8k FD) (9.7k DK) (18.4k FD2) @ TEX: There is not a lot I love on this main slate tonight, and Price comes in as the biggest favorite at just -140 right now. That shows us how bad this slate could be. He’s been very shaky his last few starts after he left with a “hand” injury after getting crushed by the Yanks in 1 inning. The main reason I am writing him up is well, I have to have someone on this bad slate and the Rangers do have a 28% K rate against LHP in their L14, so that is a positive. Price has struggled with command a bit so far having a career-high 10% walk rate and he’s getting hit very hard. I do think that Texas has a ton of strikeouts in their lineup and Price could grab a bunch tonight.

Jaime Barria (5.9k FD) (4k DK) (8k FD2) vs BAL: Just take a second to see how CHEAP he is on sites. He looks solid as a GPP SP2 on DK and FD2. Baltimore is a team that we do like to pick on with pitchers because they have been very bad all year long. In the minors, he was getting around 22-23% strikeouts the last two seasons and was not walking many hitters. He didn’t look good against the Giants in his last start, but his first MLB start against the Rangers he did well allowing just 1 hit and it happened to be a HR. There is not a lot of information on him at the big league level. One big concern I have is he’s mainly been a flyball pitcher and that is not good in the bigs. He’s one of the Angels top prospects and is actually their top pitching prospect. I don’t think he will be that highly owned and the O’s have been known to struggle at times. In tournaments for practically free, I think we could take a risk on him in a lineup.

Chris Tillman (5.7k FD) (4.1k DK) ( 8.6k FD2)@ LAA: WILD CARD ALERT. Tillman is VERY HIGH RISK AND DON’T USE HIM UNLESS IT IS IN A VERY VERY LARGE GPP. Okay, now that I got the yelling out of the way. I am trying to find that low owned GPP option that could work out for us. Tillman has sucked this year plain and simple. But he had a good start last time out, so that’s a plus right? He has the ability to get 5 K’s in this one which could help and he will be practically free. The main reason I have him here is because the Angels only are hitting .240 against him in their careers and he has held Trout to a 2-12 line. The offense is obviously more than Trout and Calhoun, Valbuena, Simmons, Upton, and Kinsler all have home runs off him. As a team over their L14 against all pitching though, they do have a 23.6% K rate and one of the lower wRC+’s in the league at 62 and a lower wOBA at .256. They do see a lot of pitches normally but we can hope Tillman goes 5-6 innings and only gives up a couple runs. Again, I don’t trust him, but I do think he could pull in 20ish points in LARGE GPPs.

Sean Manaea (8.7k FD) (11.2k DK) (21.4k FD2) vs SEA: Probably my top dog on this main slate tonight. Manaea has been simply outstanding this year. Outside of his start against the Dodgers, he has put up no less than 40 fanduel points this year. He’s gone 7 or more in EVERY SINGLE START except that one against LAD. Seattle has the tendency to hit LHP, but Manaea has been just too good this year and has already shut them down once. He has a solid 23.6% K rate and not walking hitters at all. He has a 3.52 SIERA and been around 45% groundballs. His BABIP numbers show he could be getting lucky ( .148), but we have to ride the hot hand while he’s putting up fantasy points. He has been equally good to both sides of the plate allowing under a .185 wOBA to both sides and been striking out 31.8% of lefties and 20.4% of righties. Right now, in the Seattle projected lineup they have 5 lefties, but I do expect that to change once the final lineup comes out. Lefties have virtually no shot against him and can’t even make hard contact (14.8%). Manaea is my top dog on this bad main slate tonight.

Main Slate Rankings

1. Sean Manaea (all formats)
2. David Price (lean GPP)
3. Jaime Barria (Large field GPP only)
4. Chris Tillman (LARGE FIELD GPP ONLY)

NOTE: I absolutely HATE both of these slates today and may not even play either one. These are the pitchers that I like the most from all of the games today. I do not think anyone on either slate is “safe” and you should lower the % of bankroll you play in my opinion. Maybe play some more h2h and GPPs and save your bankroll for our full Friday slate instead. If you do play, play smart and Good Luck!