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Boston at Philadelphia (206.5)(-9)
Last night we saw 2 blowouts. This is going to be a very hard game for Boston. Boston got run off the court in game 3 at Milwaukee. My game theory suggests much of the same will happen here so I will be increasing my exposure to some of the role players/bench players. I will also be lessening my exposure to some of the starters from Boston. Once the blowout starts – Stevens will start shuffling with his lineups to see who can bring a spark. Even if this doesn’t play out that way I still want more exposure to the next game. It will be more competitive with a higher total.
Toronto at Cleveland (216)(-4)
Toronto cannot lose this game. It will be competitive. Expect DeRozan to take control here. Last year in specific after he had a bad game in the playoffs against the bucks he came out swinging. Had a huge game. Looking at Lebron now. His price…is absolutely insane. For me – I will just be going even to the field with Lebron. He will be around 50 percent – maybe a touch more. If you are running 1 lineup – I recommend just playing him and figuring out how to work your roster around it. Here is the deal guys – We tend to gravitate towards the metric of 5x. We need to throw that out the window today. We can’t always use that as a metric for success. There really aren’t many pivots today to justify fading Lebron entirely. All he really has to do is get to 60 and you are in trouble if you don’t have him. I think 60 is a given tonight unless the game is a blowout which I highly doubt. Fading Lebron means you most likely are going to have Simmons and I don’t see how Simmons can have a blow-up game against the way Boston is playing him.
Point Guards
- Kyle Lowry
- Terry Rozier
- George Hill
- VanVleet
- Delon Wright
- TJ McConnell (punt)
This is it for Lowry. I expect him to be a big part of this game tonight. He really needs to start facilitating this game better and I see him playing more minutes. Rozier has been unstoppable. We will need this game to stay competitive though. If it does he will have another 40+ outing. After those two you have value. I like Hill and VV equally. Wright and TJ McConnell are more punt type plays. One sneaky play I didn’t list here because I don’t want you guys going HAM on him is Shane Larkin. If this game gets out of hand he could be your Raul Neto of last night. If you MME it might be a good idea to plug him in a few.
Shooting Guards
- DeMar DeRozan
- JJ Redick
- Marcus Smart
- Marco Belinelli
- JR Smith
- Kyle Korver
- Jaylen Brown
DeMar DeRozan is one of my top plays tonight. I’m going to try to smash him in a lot of my lineups. I’m going to ride him. Too much is on the line for someone of his talent. I like Redick as my second play down 0-2 at home. He is going to be a big part of dismantling Boston tonight. He has historically shot a touch better at home. Marcus Smart isn’t far off from Redick and he just does everything. If this game stays close he will be a big reason why and I could see him flirting with 40-50. The next 3 guys I will have around 10-20 percent ownership. I have Jaylen Brown in my player pool as well. His price is just so attractive and I know what he is capable of. His hamstring still makes me nervous and if this game gets out of hand he will be the first to sit.
Small Forwards
- Lebron James
- Robert Covington
- Jayson Tatum
- CJ Miles
- OG Anunoby
Pretty much as I said earlier I will be around 50-60 percent LBJ. There just isn’t enough viable pivots for me to justify fading him even at his price point. I love RoCo tonight to mimic his last performance. If you do fade LBJ – You better be going a RoCo/Tatum combo. I don’t like Tatum as much with Brown back in the picture but this position is scarce. CJ and OG are your two value plays here. I prefer CJ as he has a much higher ceiling. If Toronto falls behind they will need his scoring.
Power Forwards
- Kevin Love
- Marcus Morris
- Serge Ibaka
- Jeff Green
- Ben Simmons
- Pascal Shitcan … I mean Siakam
Started from the bottom now we’re here. Hello Kevin Love. Hated by many, loved by few. You are numero uno tonight and I am not happy about it. He will be used heavily again. As long as he stays out of foul trouble I am confident he does well. I really like Morris here. As I’ve been saying I think this game gets out of hand fairly quickly and that means Morris will be brought in earlier to get a spark going. Next up – IBAKA. I’m nervous about him but boy do the Raptors need him to step up. I really see them trying to get him involved early. Hopefully, he doesn’t F it up. Jeff Green is a safer option at 4k. I expect more of the same from him. A spark off the bench that’ll get you 20ish. I hate Ben Simmons tonight but can’t completely fade him. His ownership will be the lowest of all the studs. Boston’s gameplan just destroys Simmons’ Strengths. Pascal will be in my player pool but at a lower percentage. Lebron absolutely torched him. I think LBJ missed 1 shot while Pascal was covering him. It wasn’t good.
Centers
- Jval
- Embiid
- Horford
- Baynes
- Thompson
It looks like Cleveland is perfectly fine letting JVal go to work. So – I will just reap the rewards via DFS. Embiid is good for 40-50 but I think his ceiling is capped today due to my theory of the game getting out of hand. Same goes for Horford. Baynes and Thompson are my punt plays. I’ll have some exposure to them but not a lot.