Hey everyone CeeGee here again to break down my favorite MLB Top Stacks for today’s Friday MLB Slate. If you have any questions hit my up in the DFS Army VIP Slack chat @CeeGee and we can chat. Congrats to DFS Army VIP Member bv6211 (dradt8386 in Slack Chat) on taking down 1st place for $10,000 on @FanDuel in the $65k Sat MLB Squeeze the other day! 🔥🔥🔥
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Yesterday’s MLB Stack Results May 24th
EARLY
Angels – Trout, Pujols, Ohtani, Cozart – 77.3 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Reds – Winker, Gennett, Schebler – 34.1 🔥🔥
Orioles – Mancini, Jones, Machado, Davis – 80.7 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Great early slate, only 3 games and we nailed the two top stacks on the slate with the Angels and Orioles. If you 4×4 double stacked them you were probably cashing pretty hard early yesterday afternoon.
MAIN
Rangers – DeShields, Profar, Rua, Chirinos – 9.2 💩💩💩💩💩
Brewers – Cain, Braun, Aguilar, Perez – 12 💩💩💩💩💩
Royals – Jay, Moustakas, Gordon, Dozier – 15.2 💩💩
Well, the 2nd 3 game slate of the day didn’t go quite as well as the 1st one early. Combine the stack let downs with the chalk SP Rick Porcello let down and it was a rough evening. Still a profitable day with the success of the early slate stacks but wish it could have been better with at least a decent showing on the main slate. Sometimes in Baseball that’s how things go. You really have to trust the process so much in Baseball, regardless of a few bad days. The same process that landed me on the Early stacks, landed me on the Main slate stacks, so we just chalk this one up as a loss and move onto today.
My Favorite MLB Top Stacks Today Friday May 25th
*NOTE * when you see numbers in this format 400/450/200 that is my shorthand for wOBA / CXwOBA / ISO
Coors Field, Reds @ Rockies. Its been awhile since we’ve had a Coors Field game to look into and going forward we’re going to see a lot more, as the Rockies have more home games remaining on their schedule than any team in the majors. Tonight we get the Reds Sal Romano @ Rockies Jon Gray. The targets here are going to be the Rockies lefties as Romano has done much worse vs lefties in his career. We know everyone is at least worth consideration in Coors, but I don’t like to go too heavy on a big slate like this and with this being the 1st game in Coors. I think this game will be very popular tonight especially on Fanduel where the player pricing doesn’t look like it was adjusted to account for Coors Field. Arenado only 4,700, Blackmon only 4,600 Votto only 4,500. I personally believe it takes teams at least 1 game to get accustomed to playing in Coors so I wont be heavily invested here tonight.
Yankees vs Angeles Andrew Heaney (L)
Judge, Andujar, Walker, Torres + Santon/Sanchez
Total Cost $15,500
Order 2-7-8-9 (projected)
💥Total DFSA Grade — 💥
Andrew Heaney 16/17
vs Right 452 woba – 457 iso – 40% fly ball rate – 44% HC
vs Left 325 woba – 208 iso – 35% fly ball rate – 30% HC
Andrew Heaney – this season 2018
vs Right 301 woba – 168 iso – 31% fly ball rate – 34% HC – 45% >95mph
vs Left 281 woba – 069 iso – 21% fly ball rate – 16% HC
At first glance the Yankees jump off the page today against Andrew Heaney, however, after digging a little more I found out why pretty quickly. His 2017 numbers are from a very small sample size, only 21.2 innings pitched. In those innings he was god awful giving up 27 hits 9 walks 17 earned runs and 12 home runs (yes 12).
I still like the Yankees stack but I think all the donkeys will love it as well, even though they wont know why. They’ll see his terrible 17/18 combined numbers and think he’s a bad pitcher, which he’s not. Some of his advanced stats have me targeting him today with these Yankee bats, especially the right handed batters. Heaney throws 3 pitches, Sinker 57%, Curve 24% and Change 19%. His Sinker gets hit pretty good 383 wOBA, 446 CXwOBA and 179 ISO, but only a 27% hard hit rate. Hitting the ball hard is not something we have to worry about with this Yankee lineup however.
Yankees vs Sinker
Aaron Judge 422/591/319 +46%HC
Giancarlo Stanton 435/291 +37% HC
Gary Sanchez 382/441/257 +35% HC
Tyler Austin 386/496/361 +33% HC
Miguel Andujar 389/194 +31% HC
Neil Walker 397/469/242 +45% HC
Gleybar Torres 591/615 +48%
Yankees vs Curve
Aaron Judge 422/351 +46% HC
Giancarlo Stanton 326/510/305 +45% HC
Gleybar Torres 425/308 +25% HC
Yankees vs Change
Aaron Judge 419/362 +42% HC
Giancarlo Stanton 373/301 +43% HC
Gary Sanchez 447/463 +42% HC
Didi Gregorious 390/294 +31% HC
The usual suspects here with a new Yankee along with the best #9 hitter of all time Gleybar Torres. Despite Heaney having success this year, I feel like this is a great matchup for the Yankees today, in Yankee Stadium with the weather warming up and the wind blowing out to left. I listed the 2-7-8-9 stack but you can stack this team several ways today. They are expensive, so you probably wont be able to fit one of the Ace pitchers on the slate, along with your Yankee stack but I think we can find some good value SP on 14 game slate.
Blue Jays @ Phillies Zach Eflin
Granderson, Smoak, Solarte + Donaldson + Hernandez
Total Cost $9,800
Order 1-2-5-6 (projected)
💥Total DFSA Grade —💥
Zach Eflin 17/18
vs Right 313 woba – 153iso – 36% fly ball rate – 28% HC
vs Left 367 woba – 266 iso – 43% fly ball rate – 37% HC
This is a real good spot here today for the Blue Jays and their left handed hitters vs Phillies right hander Zach Eflin. Curtis Granderson has great BVP vs Eflin if your a BVP believer, 6 PA, 3 hits and 2 HR. Outside of Granderson the other lefties for the Blue Jays should have good success today as well.
Zach Eflin throws 5 pitches but he leans on his Fastball 92-94 mph 45% of the time and his Sinker 23% of the time. He allows a 391 CXwOBA on his Fastball along with a 254 ISO and 35% hard hit rate. His Slider, which he throws 16% of the time is even worse, with a 429 CXwOBA and 280 ISO.
Blue Jays vs Fastball 92-94
Curtis Granderson 393/267 +35% HC
Josh Donaldson 422/360 +48% HC
Justin Smoak 459/344 +36% HC
Teoscar Hernandez 397/378 +43% HC
Yangervis Solarte 391/238 +35% HC
Kevin Pillar 411/269 +30% HC
Russell Martin 397/275 +45% HC
Blue Jays vs Sinker
Curtis Granderson 423/266 +39% HC
Josh Donaldson 458/315 +36% HC
Justin Smoak 381/273 +38% HC
Teoscar Hernandez 405/348 +33% HC
I only listed the 3 left handers in the stack above, but after seeing the pitches Eflin throws and the pitches the Blue Jays hit, I’ve added Donaldson and Hernandez to the stack as well. I think Granderson might be the most popular hitter on tonight’s slate, because people simply love BVP and even with minimal research people will quickly be able to see Eflin struggles vs lefties. The park in Philly is a big draw for me here, as it ranks 2nd on the slate for lefty power just behind Yankee stadium. So we have a SP who struggles vs lefties, in a part that is great for lefty power, this should add up to a few crooked numbers on the scoreboard today for the Blue Jays.
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Nationals @ Marlins Jose Urena
Turner, Harper, Rendon, Adams + Soto
Total Cost $17,500 (expensive)
Order 1-2-3-6 (projected)
💥Total DFSA Grade —💥
Jose Urena 17/18
vs Right 298 woba – 154 iso – 33% fly ball rate – 31 hard contact
vs Left 319 woba – 177 iso – 39% fly ball rate – 36% hard contact
Marlins righty Jose Urena has been ok this year, not great and not terrible. Tonight I’ll be targeting the Nationals bats heavily for a few reasons. I don’t trust Urena to hold down this lineup, and after the Nationals knock him out of the game I damn sure don’t trust the Marlins bullpen to hold down the Nationals offense either. The Marlins bullpen ranks dead last in these categories so far this year. EAR (6.95), xFIP (5.49), WHIP (1.73) HR Allowed (8), Batting Avg (.304), K% (11.7%), Swinging Strike Rate (6.7%), Hard Contact (42.5%).
Urena throws 4 pitches, all right around 25% each. Fastball 94-96 mph, Slider, Sinker, Change. His fastball, despite being very fast, gets hit, very hard and often, 419 wOBA, 268 ISO and 38% hard contact.
Nationals vs Fastball 94-96 – 29%
Trea Turner 435/266 +42% HC
Bryce Harper 376/274 +38% HC
Anthony Rendon 396/210 +28% HC
Matt Adams 383/320 +28% HC
Pedro Severino 423/308 +20% HC
Nationals vs Sinker – 26%
Trea Turner 387/206 +32% HC
Bryce Harper 434/271 +36% HC
Anthony Rendon 389/169 +40% HC
Matt Adams 430/316 +38% HC
Michael Taylor 374/216 +30% HC
Several factors are leading me to the Nationals tonight, my lack of confidence in Urena as a pitcher overall and the god awful Marlins bullpen. When the Nationals knock out Urena, the real fun will begin for this stack so don’t tilt too early if they start off a little slow.
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Other Stacks
Rangers vs Royals Eric Skoglund (L)
DeShields, Profar, Rua, Chirinos
Total Cost $10,800
Order 1-5-8-9 (projected)
💥Total DFSA Grade —💥
Eric Skoglund
vs Right 379 woba – 216 iso – 40% fly ball rate – 45% HC
vs Left 336 woba – 125 iso – 42% fly ball rate – 40% HC
Another not so sexy stack here, which some of us targeted yesterday with lackluster results as well. The Rangers Offense is not really potent, outside of a few guys who can go deep every once in awhile they don’t really appeal to me much in DFS on a daily basis. Today they get a matchup vs a horrible left hander who is awful vs right handed hitters. The problem is, the Rangers don’t really have any right handed hitters that we like. Outside of Chirinos and Profar this team is just meh… Stack them at your own risk and use Chirinos and Profar as 2 man mini stacks or one off options in your GPP’s
White Sox vs Tiers Mike Fiers
Moncada, Sanchez, Palka, Narvaez
Order 1-2-5-6
💥Total DFSA Grade —💥
Mike Fiers 17/18
vs Right 346 woba – 209 iso – 38% fly ball rate – 30% hard contact
vs Left 351 woba – 228 iso – 37% fly ball rate – 32% hard contact
Entire White Sox lineup is in play tonight Fiers numbers above are even worse when you look at just this season’s numbers. He’s been getting knocked around by left and right handed batters and giving up a 40%+ fly ball rate to both. The White Sox have a lot of young talent and relatively unknown players so they could be sneaky tonight.
That’s all I’ve got for today, I hope you all enjoyed the article. Reach out to me in the Slack Chat @CeeGee if you have any questions or comments or just wanna chat about today’s slate.
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