Hey, hey, hey…..it’s your DFS MLB buddy @Choppodong!! I am a coach and contributor inside DFS Army, where our entire goal is teaching you the fundamentals that will make you a better, more competitive player as quickly as possible.
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Remember, this article is designed to get you pointed in the right direction. It’s not a slate write-up and it’s not a player picks piece. I would rather get you started, then have you interact with us in our VIP slack forums as we banter picks and strategies back and forth. Learning MLB the right way is the fastest way to grow your skill level.
DFS Army is about teaching first. This is a video breakdown covering the important parts of today’s slates….you might even get some tips as I walk through my process. Even I don’t know what I’m going to say… (May 29)
DFS MLB Slate Overview
Main Slate
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We have a large main slate of 14 games, but might get lucky with a nice very late slate. Looking at start times, I think the Express will be very small (2-3 games) and the later slates will be around 4 games in size. However, that last slate might be 5 games. If so, that’s the slate I’ll be targeting, personally.
Weather only affects the ATL game with rain. We appear to have a mediocre pitching slate coming with a lot of similar choices. That means a lot of bats find themselves in good spots. With so many nearly equal matchups at first glance, we might expect a higher scoring night where a little correlation will go a long way if you hit it correctly.
Back to Basics
It’s always a good idea to know which teams are scoring runs and which are giving them up. I will simply sort by the last 30 days and rank the teams. Here are your top 10 in terms of runs scored and your top 10 highest team ERAs (worst pitching).
The very basic idea is to try and play offensive players from the teams scoring runs and try to attack the pitchers from the teams giving them up. If you see CLE going up against KCR, for example, you should have a pretty good matchup most times.
MLB DFS Pitching
We are always looking for the best combination of price, Vegas, strikeout upside, and matchup (ballparks, weather, etc). We will normally be looking to the top tier on Fanduel and will likely come off that a little so we can afford a decent SP2 on Draftkings. Generic rules like that always have exceptions. Be flexible. KScore is the pitcher’s strikeout potential with the opposing team’s vulnerability to striking out. The DFSA Grade is proprietary to our VIPs but will give you guys something to track in terms of a catch-all safety rating.
Main Slate Pitching
This does not need to be overly difficult today. There are a bunch of “playable” pitchers, but a few stand out more than the rest. Kenta Maeda should be the safest. He has a couple of very nice starts coming into tonight with both scoring over 55 points. He carries the highest KScore of the slate and the highest support from Vegas at -160. You will have a hard time finding pure numbers making a case for a better pitcher tonight. Charlie Morton doesn’t have the K upside and Bundy has neither the K upside nor the Vegas support, and he faces a little more potent offense in WAS.
Luis Castillo is the cheaper option I’d look at if I wanted to walk the wild side. ARI doesn’t scare me as an offense. Our DFSA grade of 99 is as high as it gets. Also, a 500+ KScore means the upside for a good night is there. All other pitchers in this price range grade out in the 60s or 70s. Castillo becomes the only pitcher I’d “pay down for.”
I thought about Nick Kingham, and he’s playable. However, if I was looking at $8300 from my pitcher, I’d be more tempted to spend up more to Maeda at $9300. As a result, I don’t see myself in a spot today where I’m filling in my pitcher last and Kingham can just slot in there as the perfect price point fit. I build with my pitcher first most times and will be choosing Maeda first and Castillo where I want a little more BOS bats or something similar.
Want more pitching breakdowns? See MDell’s article our members are raving about – Painting the Black
MLB Pitching to Exploit
I’m not going into much detail here. Just rest assured if our DFSA Grades like the aces with high marks, they are going to hate the scrubs with low marks. For one, Alex Cobb is currently sporting a 13.33ish ERA. Now, it won’t stay that way for long, but get on these guys while they are struggling. That’s what DFS is all about. In parentheses are the bats you should be stacking, especially when it’s also a high-powered offense….
MAIN
Matz (@ATL)
Estrada (@BOS)
Sebathia (HOU)
Gossett (TBR)
Hellickson (@BAL)
Bibens-Dirkx (@SEA)
How about some more winning?! I change these screenshots like I change mistresses. Seriously, why are you just taking the free content? Why aren’t you in here receiving the tools, optimizer, and coaching? These guys are, and these guys are dominating the competition.
DFS MLB Bats and Stack Considerations
I focus on attacking the pitchers above, and I love it when I see Vegas supporting the cause or a high powered offense matching up with these attackable pitchers. I will then focus on the better bats within the offense and key in on our batters grading out over 75 in our Research Station. Bear in mind, I’m listing day-to-day and 10day DL guys, too. Your job is to follow the news, or plug into our Slack Channels and get the details as our slates lock for the day.
Main Offenses to Stack
COL – Blackmon, Arenado, Gonzalez, Wolters
BOS – Betts, Moreland, Benintendi, Devers
LAA – Trout, Upton, Cozart, Simmons
MIL – Aguilar, Santana, Shaw, Yelich, Cain, Bundy
SEA – Span, Segura, Gamel, Heredia
STL – Carpenter, Ozuna, Munoz
For more on DFS Stacking, see CeeGee’s article – MLB DFS Top Stacks
#DongCall Time!
This section takes on a change. I will simply leave it at my #200on200 guys for the foreseeable future. Posting pictures on the web is becoming more trouble than it’s worth, and it’s not like many people comment out on Twitter anyway. That’s a shame because it was fun.
#200on200 – #DongCall worthy
MAIN – Blackmon, Dahl, Cruz, CDavis, Machado, Lamb, Cron, Haniger, Bryant, AJones, Mesoraco, Zunino
Note ^ the frequent teams and other potential stacks.
Pay attention to the other DFS Army articles like Dong Detector for deeper dives into which bats are in the best spots. Hopefully, your research is started for today. If it feels like it’s pointing in a funky direction, no worries…….I feel just like you right now. Let’s keep our eyes peeled for directions the industry is pointing and re-evaluate as the day goes on. We can zig when they zag or hide in the herd. The choice is ours, and we will be discussing it in our Slack Forums all day long. Join us!
Final MLB DFS Thoughts
For MLB cash games, keep the stacking to a minimum. You can’t afford to grab stack Rockies in Coors and have them fall flat, which they occasionally do. ISO is a great stat to look at with wOBA for hitter-friendly parks. Remember to head over to DFSARMY.com, your one-stop-shop for stats, player recommendations, coaching, winning lineups discussion, and everything DFS related. Use code CHOP to trigger a 10% discount every month as long as you remain a member regardless of any future price increases. You are grandfathered in at your rate permanently!!
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