Hey, hey, hey…..it’s your DFS MLB buddy @Choppodong!! I am a coach and contributor inside DFS Army, where our entire goal is teaching you the fundamentals that will make you a better, more competitive player as quickly as possible.
Give me a follow on Twitter and YouTube for the latest content drops and video uploads. Use code CHOP for a 10% discount, and get busy learning/winning today!! As always, your best compliment is retweeting and/or sharing this information across social media. Thank you!
Remember, this article is designed to get you pointed in the right direction. It’s not a slate write-up and it’s not a player picks piece. I would rather get you started, then have you interact with us in our VIP slack forums as we banter picks and strategies back and forth. Learning MLB the right way is the fastest way to grow your skill level.
DFS Army is about teaching first. This is a video breakdown covering the important parts of today’s slates….you might even get some tips as I walk through my process. Even I don’t know what I’m going to say…
DFS MLB Slate Overview
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
I won’t be writing a ton this weekend, so before I take a more “behind-the-scenes” role for a few days, I wanted to at least get this part out. We live in an overly politicized world. I get caught up in it; you might, too. But, I try not to mix it with sports, especially fantasy sports. I can’t stand the “I vote left, so I hate everything right.” Or, the “I vote right, everyone on the left are morons.” Those attitudes are counter-productive. Most sensible people, in my opinion, envision a world where people can respectfully disagree politically, but still come together as one nation fighting for a common cause…….freedom of choice.
I choose to play my DFS sports with money I can afford to lose, but with hope I’ll win. I choose to give my spare time to the television and enjoyment of adult beverages. Also, I choose to watch for the next amazing athletic moment in the highest of pressure cookers while I sit in my lazy chair astonished. And, I am able to choose these things because many, many citizens (far braver than I will ever be) paid the ultimate price for me with their lives. So, I raise my beer this weekend and flip a special burger for those that gave me my freedom of choice. I do so without political prejudice and without loathing if that man/woman serving voted for Hillary or The Donald. I encourage you to do the same. Now…….let’s get it on!!
Main Slate
If you want deeper dives, jump into our VIP content as it drops via the MLB Tab on site.
Another huge slate wide open with pitching and great bats. Not a lot of weather to worry about other than winds blowing out in CHC, PHI, NYY, BOS, TEX (to some degree), OAK, and LAD. We have a couple great hitters’ parks in MIL, TEX, and CHC. And, of course, we have a Coors Field slate. Bats and arms will collide tonight.
COL, NYY, BOS, and TEX all have implied team totals over 5.00 and many others aren’t far behind. Six of our games carry game totals of 9 or higher. Yet, we also have names like Scherzer, Kluber, Severino, Paxton, Syndergaard, and young phenom Sergio Romo taking to their mounds. We need to dig in and find the weak spots in this slate. And, we start with pitching……….
MLB DFS Pitching
We are always looking for the best combination of price, Vegas, strikeout upside, and matchup (ballparks, weather, etc). We will normally be looking to the top tier on Fanduel and will likely come off that a little so we can afford a decent SP2 on Draftkings. Generic rules like that always have exceptions. Be flexible. KScore is the pitcher’s strikeout potential with the opposing team’s vulnerability to striking out. The DFSA Grade is proprietary to our VIPs but will give you guys something to track in terms of a catch-all safety rating.
Main Slate Pitching
World’s fastest pitching breakdown starts now (but the video might go into more detail)…
We started with a list of Scherzer, Kluber, Severino, Paxton, Syndergaard, Romo, Heaney, Corbin, Manaea, and Stripling.
I immediately tossed Heaney being a huge dog and not having his normal upside. Kluber makes sense but you get more KScore and safer Vegas odds by paying up the $1000 to Scherzer, who is seemingly in a perfect spot. Spoiler alert: Scherzer makes the short list. Severino is a huge favorite, but his strikeout potential is capped by the Angels ability to put the ball in play very regularly this year. Syndergaard has a crap offense supporting him and a huge park downgrade tonight. Corbin is a +135 dog with limited upside out in Oakland. Manaea was sort of added for name recognition, but it didn’t take long to spot he’s a contact type pitcher when we have tons of upside on the slate.
That left us with varying price points and a list of…. Scherzer, Paxton, Stripling, and Romo.
The Short List
Max Scherzer – Perhaps the perfect pitcher these days, and priced like it. You won’t be seeing Coors Field from anything but your tv if you mount this stud tonight. But, boy does he flash all the numbers we like. Huge favorite, huge K upside, huge DFSA grade, pitcher’s park, weak offense facing him, and a solid offense of his own supporting him. It’s really tough to find those value bats, but going anywhere else tonight in cash games is taking a risk…………and cash games aren’t for taking risk. Anything else is some kind of pivot, technically. He’s head and shoulders the best, and safest, pitcher on the slate.
James Paxton – You saw why I ruled the other pitchers in the upper tier out already. Paxton is enough of a discount and has enough upside, I think he’s viable. Solid favorite and a KScore well over 500 (539) that I think we can consider him. He’s pricey, too, though and will still require some value bats. But, I think we can make this work with the help of our Domination Station Optimizer (video using our tools) finding the best value bats in the best matchups after lineups all confirm.
Ross Stripling – We have a Coors game on the slate and you can bet people will want pieces of it tonight. To do so, they need value pitching. Stripling comes in with a sub-7k price tag, a -200 moneyline from Vegas, a 518 KScore, and a decent 79 DFSA grade. We love attacking San Diego bats, and people might really be targeting Stripling tonight if they have their eyes on bigger Yankee, Red Sox, or Coors Field bats.
Sergio Romo – However, this might just be the diaper dandy of a Coors Slate. Sure, people should just blindly roster Scherzer, but they aren’t going to. No one wants to pay up and cost themselves sexy bats. People want Aaron Judge, not Aaron Boone. They want JD Martinez, not JD Drew. And, the $5500 price tag is just what the doctor ordered when it also comes with an 88 DFSA grade and 527 KScore. That compares to $9000 pitchers on most slates. DFS is about value, and this kid should be bringing it. I don’t think we are scared of Baltimore, either.
You can scratch the Romo Plan for Fanduel where you need 5 IP for a win and 6 IP for a quality start. I got caught in a moment of weakness where I was only looking at numbers and not putting two and two together. It happens to the best of us, so I’ll leave it in there to show you we are all morons from time to time.
Your job is to put those pitchers together and see which one you prefer in conjunction with the bats you want to target. Take the sure thing, or take the gamble. Thanks to our men of service……the freedom of choice is yours.
Want more pitching breakdowns? See MDell’s article our members are raving about – Painting the Black
MLB Pitching to Exploit
I’m not going into much detail here. Just rest assured if our DFSA Grades like the aces with high marks, they are going to hate the scrubs with low marks. For one, Alex Cobb is currently sporting a 13.33ish ERA. Now, it won’t stay that way for long, but get on these guys while they are struggling. That’s what DFS is all about. In parentheses are the bats you should be stacking, especially when it’s also a high-powered offense….
MAIN
Holland (@CHC)
Lopez (@DET)
Romano (@COL)
Eflin (TOR)
Skoglund (@TEX)
Urena (WAS)
How about some more winning?! I change these screenshots like I change mistresses. Seriously, why are you just taking the free content? Why aren’t you in here receiving the tools, optimizer, and coaching? These guys are, and these guys are dominating the competition.
DFS MLB Bats and Stack Considerations
I focus on attacking the pitchers above, and I love it when I see Vegas supporting the cause or a high powered offense matching up with these attackable pitchers. I will then focus on the better bats within the offense and key in on our batters grading out over 75 in our Research Station. Bear in mind, I’m listing day-to-day and 10day DL guys, too. Your job is to follow the news, or plug into our Slack Channels and get the details as our slates lock for the day.
Main Offenses to Stack
COL –Desmond, Parra, Arenado (1st Game Fade in effect, too)
TEX – Choo, Mazara, Profar, Falefa
DET – VMartinez, Castellanos
NYY – Sanchez, Walker, Hicks, Romine, Andujar, Torres
PHI – Santana, Altherr, Hernandez
SFG – super sneaky stack – Belt, Crawford, Jackson, Hernandez, Posey
For more on DFS Stacking, see CeeGee’s article – MLB DFS Top Stacks
#DongCall Time!
This section takes on a change. I will simply leave it at my #200on200 guys for the foreseeable future. Posting pictures on the web is becoming more trouble than it’s worth, and it’s not like many people comment out on Twitter anyway. That’s a shame because it was fun.
#200on200 – #DongCall worthy
Blackmon, O’Neill, Torres, Sanchez, Stanton, Hoskins, Chirinos, Dahl, Smoak, Abreu, Granderson, Carpenter, Benintendi, Judge, Davidson, CSantana, Morales, Pham, Devers
Note ^ the frequent teams and other potential stacks.
Pay attention to the other DFS Army articles like Dong Detector for deeper dives into which bats are in the best spots. Hopefully, your research is started for today. If it feels like it’s pointing in a funky direction, no worries…….I feel just like you right now. Let’s keep our eyes peeled for directions the industry is pointing and re-evaluate as the day goes on. We can zig when they zag or hide in the herd. The choice is ours, and we will be discussing it in our Slack Forums all day long. Join us!
Final MLB DFS Thoughts
For MLB cash games, keep the stacking to a minimum. You can’t afford to grab stack Rockies in Coors and have them fall flat, which they occasionally do. ISO is a great stat to look at with wOBA for hitter-friendly parks. Remember to head over to DFSARMY.com, your one-stop-shop for stats, player recommendations, coaching, winning lineups discussion, and everything DFS related. Use code CHOP to trigger a 10% discount every month as long as you remain a member regardless of any future price increases. You are grandfathered in at your rate permanently!!
Your greatest compliment is helping me spread the word. Retweets and shoutouts are my favorite. Feel free to use #DongCall when you hit yours, too!