Donuts’ MME Method
I have been discussing in this article and in our members only Slack about a theory on how to approach MME and GPP’s in general for both FanDuel and DraftKings. It’s a method I created to basically diversify your portfolio in a low-risk fashion while boosting your potential ROI by having a dart or two hit the top of the standings.
Rather than trying to identify the top pitcher, hitters, or stacks and going with “heavy exposure” on said targets, we are going to set minimum exposures on specific targets and allow the optimizer to flex its muscles and take a non-biased approach as to who and what are the most optimal options.
This hopefully will allow us to have exposure to specific targets that allow us to have a handful of lineups that are “in the hunt” for the top of the standings if some of the top targets bottom out and sink most of your lineups.
Let’s get to work!
Pitchers for FanDuel
Throw a minimum of 5-10% exposure to ensure that you have at least 7-15 out of your 150 lineups with each pitcher)
Gio Gonzalez (@SD 3.6 IRT, -123 Fav)
Patrick Corbin (@LAD 3.7 IRT, 111 Dog)
Alex Wood (ARI 3.4 IRT, -120 Fav)
Masahiro Tanaka (BOS 3.9 IRT, -170 Fav)
Nick Pivetta (SF 4.3 IRT, -131 Fav)
Julio Teheran (@TB 4.1 IRT, 104 Dog)
Joey Lucchesi (WSH 4.0 IRT, 114 Dog)
Jaime Garcia (SEA 4.4 IRT, -119 Fav)
Ryan Yarbrough (ATL 4.0 IRT, -113 Fav)
This hedge method of MME (loosely considered a cash game approach to GPPs – GASP), is perfect for when there are plenty of good options and you want to make sure you have some exposure to that guy who has the random 55 point outing that wins the slate.
After setting those minimums I’ll allow the DS to fill in the rest of my exposure settings for each pitcher listed above with a maximum cap set to 40%.
Pitchers for DraftKings
Throw a minimum of 5-10% exposure to ensure that you have at least 1-2 out of your 20 lineups with each pitcher)
Gio Gonzalez (@SD 3.6 IRT, -123 Fav)
Patrick Corbin (@LAD 3.7 IRT, 111 Dog)
Alex Wood (ARI 3.4 IRT, -120 Fav)
Masahiro Tanaka (BOS 3.9 IRT, -170 Fav)
Nick Pivetta (SF 4.3 IRT, -131 Fav)
Julio Teheran (@TB 4.1 IRT, 104 Dog)
Joey Lucchesi (WSH 4.0 IRT, 114 Dog)
Jaime Garcia (SEA 4.4 IRT, -119 Fav)
Ryan Yarbrough (ATL 4.0 IRT, -113 Fav)
Value Hitters FanDuel
Throw a minimum 5-10% exposure setting on 7-10 of your favorite guys from this category)
Kendrys Morales
Aaron Altherr
Jean Segura
Carlos Santana
Odubel Herrera
Gregor Blanco
Adam Jones
Jonathan Schoop
Mark Trumbo
Danny Valencia
Trey Mancini
Yes, that was five Orioles in a row. They’re all under-priced and have a solid match-up against Eric Skoglund and a 5.1 IRT projection that opened at 4.8 runs.
Jose Pirela
Manuel Margot
Chris Owings
Steven Souza
Enrique Hernandez
Austin Barnes
Value Hitters for DraftKings
Throw a minimum 5-10% exposure setting on a handful of your favorite guys from this category)
Gregor Blanco
Aaron Altherr
Jonathan Schoop
Lucas Duda
Jon Jay
Mike Zunino
Justin Smoak
Kendrys Morales
Russell Martin
Kurt Suzuki
Johan Camargo
Ryan Zimmerman
Jose Pirela
Chris Owings
Austin Barnes
Enrique Hernandez
The objective of selecting value hitters is to give the optimizer your specific favorite cheap/value options to use when creating lineups. The algorithm then has some extra salary to make sure it can grab the correct studs and stacks.
Stacks for FanDuel
I am rolling with a minimum scale between 5-10% each which will be between 10-15 total lineups stacked for that range. You don’t need worry about who is actually stacked from the team – just trust the optimizer algorithm to optimally slap it all together). As far as what stack setting, 4-3 etc. that’s all preference and you can run what you’re comfortable with.
If you want to do these specific stacks then make sure they are in the final lineup and you’ll have to run the optimizer with these players locked and do a fair amount of CSV copy and pasting. If time is of the essence just do the min % scale on the teams listed below.
TOR – Hernandez, Donaldson, Solarte, Smoak *
PHI – Altherr, Santana, Herrera *
BAL – Trumbo, Jones, Schoop, Valencia, Mancini (two or three rotating stacks of this if doing it manually. If throwing in a min % for this team stack I would roll out the maximum end of the min scale at 10%) *
Stacks for DraftKings
I am rolling with a minimum scale between 5-10% each which will be between 1-2 total lineups (out of 20) stacked for that range. You don’t need worry about who is actually stacked from the team – just trust the optimizer algorithm to optimally slap it all together). As far as what stack setting, just roll out your personal preference.
If you want to do these specific stacks then make sure they are in the final lineup and you’ll have to run the optimizer with these players locked and do a fair amount of CSV copy and pasting. If time is of the essence just do the min % scale on the teams listed below.
PHI – Hernandez, Altherr, Franco, Santana
PHI – Altherr, Santana, Herrera, Hoskins *
TOR – Smoak, Pillar, Morales, Martin
SEA – Cano, Cruz, Haniger, Healy, Zunino
BAL – Mancini, Jones, Trumbo, Valencia, Schoop *
SF – McCutchen, Posey, Belt, Longoria, Crawford
SD – Margot, Hosmer, Villanueva, Pirela
Beyond the stacks, I actually want to try to run the optimizer without ANY restrictions and just allow the optimizer to select players most optimally without any preset stacks. If you don’t want to do specific stacks just use the min % stack feature and use the min % rule set I listed for FanDuel and DraftKings. I.E. I want the Yankees stacked at 10% minimum, I don’t care about who ends in the stack and just trust the optimizer algorithm is baller enough to fit together the most optimal pieces.
My hope is that the combination of my tweaking and also allowing the optimizer to have the freedom to still flex its algorithm muscle will be a perfect blend of human touch and computing power. The optimizer routinely will stack together 2 or 3 bats from the same team for each lineup just due to our killer projection and value algorithms.
Wrap it up, dude!
Alright, so applying all of this information and strategy can be overwhelming. I am going to make a very condensed list with specific steps to follow. If you want more detail then you’ll have to read over the article itself once more.
- Open Optimizer
- Set global max to 40% for all players
- Do not X out any player in the entire player pool (unless said player isn’t in the final lineup and the automatic update missed it – which is RARE)
- Click the pitcher category and slap a minimum percentage on all of the players I listed using the scale that I provide you with for both FanDuel and DraftKings
- Select 7-10 of your favorite value hitters, you don’t need the entire list. Use the RS, our articles, the optimizer projections, DFSA grades and whatever other sources you want to settle on your favorite 7-10 value hitters. You do not need the entire list and you don’t want to corner the optimizer into using such a specific player pool. I repeated myself because people miss this step.
- For the stacks, select your preference for stack setup (I roll with 4-3).
- Throw min % on the stacks I have listed for the team itself (not the players – unless you’re uber savvy and can do a lot of CSV editing) using the min scale I provide for both FanDuel and DraftKings
- Optimize
- Win money
- Tag me on Twitter and in Slack with your triumphant victory!
The only way to continue to perfect an MME approach is to continue to fine tune it. This is still in the trial phase and in no way shape or form a “perfect approach”. This process will likely be tweaked and manipulated as the season progresses and the DFS landscape shifts every so often as it normally does. As always, I will continue to share my findings with you in the hopes that we are able to find an edge over our competition!
Fortune favors the bold. Go make your own luck!
– Donuts