Donut Shop – MLB DFS Strategy for FanDuel and DraftKings
I have been discussing in this article and in our members only Slack about a theory on how to approach MLB DFS and specifically a method to MME (mass multi-entry) for both FanDuel and DraftKings. It’s a method I created to basically diversify your portfolio in a low-risk fashion while boosting your potential ROI by having a dart or two hit the top of the standings.
Rather than trying to identify the top pitcher, hitters, or stacks and going with “heavy exposure” on said targets, we are going to set minimum exposures on specific targets and allow the optimizer to flex its muscles and take a non-biased approach as to who and what are the most optimal options.
This hopefully will allow us to have exposure to specific targets that allow us to have a handful of lineups that are “in the hunt” for the top of the standings if some of the top targets bottom out and sink most of your lineups.
Let’s get to work!
Pitchers for FanDuel
Max Scherzer (@MIA 2.6 IRT, -235 Fav)
Ross Stripling (SD 3.0 IRT, -185 Fav)
James Paxton (MIN 3.0 IRT, -185 Fav)
Eduardo Rodriguez (ATL 4.5 IRT, -185 Fav)
Jon Gray (CIN 4.8 IRT, -192 Fav)
Throw a minimum of 7-35% exposure to ensure that you have at least 10-50 out of your 150 lineups with each pitcher). The guys you like the most should be at 35% and the guys you only want minimal exposure to “just in case” just put at 7%. Everyone else should be somewhere in between those two extremes. Aim to keep your total exposure to less than 75% which gives the optimizer 25% wiggle room to add in the most optimal pitchers for the slate.
I.E. if you add up all the %’s of the pitchers, make sure the total exposure %’s you have created equal no more than 60%.
Pitchers for DraftKings
Ross Stripling (SD 3.0 IRT, -185 Fav)
James Paxton (MIN 3.0 IRT, -185 Fav)
Noah Syndergaard (@MIL 4.0 IRT, -110 Fav)
Max Scherzer (@MIA 2.6 IRT, -235 Fav)
Eduardo Rodriguez (ATL 4.5 IRT, -185 Fav)
*EDIT* If you’re doing the 150-max entry contests on DraftKings then use the same exposure settings as I put down under the FanDuel categories. If not then follow the advice for the 20-max entries in each of the subsequent categories.
Throw a minimum of 10-25% exposure to ensure that you have at least 2-5 out of your 20 lineups with each pitcher). The guys you like the most put 25% exposure on and the guys you like the least throw 10% on. Everyone else is in between. Because DraftKings has two pitchers we want to total no more than 120% (out of 200%) for all pitchers listed.
I.E. If you add up your %’s on the pitchers, make sure the total exposure percentage isn’t over 120.
Value Hitters FanDuel
My top value hitters if making a cash lineup (one single cash lineup is the way to go in addition to the MME life) would be: Segura, Parra, Ramos, Moreland, J.D. Martinez, Neil Walker, Granderson.
Mitch Moreland/Rafael Devers/Eduardo Nunez/J.D. Martinez
Edwin Encarnacion/Melky Cabrera
Gerardo Parra/Carlos Gonzalez/Trevor Story/Raimel Tapia or David Dahl
Yolmer Sanchez/Daniel Palka
John Hicks/Leonys Martin
Salvador Perez/Whit Merrifield/Jorge Soler
Yasmani Grandal/Austin Barnes
Brandon Nimmo/Jay Bruce/Michael Conforto/Wilmer Flores
Neil Walker/Tyler Austin/Miguel Andujar
Marcus Semien
Aaron Altherr
Jean Segura/Kyle Seager/Guillermo Heredia
Matt Carpenter/Dexter Fowler/Tyler O’Neill/Marcell Ozuna
Denard Span/C.J. Cron/Brad Miller/Wilson Ramos
Delino DeShields/Shin-Soo Choo
Teoscar Hernandez/Curtis Granderson/Kendrys Morales/Dwight Smith Jr./Yangervis Solarte/Justin Smoak
Remember, this list isn’t a “best plays” list. It’s a value list that you put a minimum exposure setting on so when the optimizer runs it uses the best value players in order to plug in the studs at pitcher and hitters. The better the spot and cheaper the guy the more salary the optimizer will have to load up on some strong stacks and elite plays.
Throw a minimum 7-20% exposure setting on 7-10 of your favorite guys from this category. This means that the 7% players will be in at least 10 lineups and the 20% players will end up in 30 (if you are running out 150-lineups). The guys you like the most put at 20% and the least at 7%. Anybody else you want to include should be somewhere in between.
Make sure that if you use multiple players from the same position, i.e. Chris Davis, Ryan Zimmerman, Lucas Duda (all at first-base), that their total percentage does not go past 50%. We don’t want to have more than 40% locked up in “value hitters” at any one position. Value hitters normally don’t have the greatest projections – they’re just value hitters to allow the optimizer to use their cheap salary/decent spot to be plugged in with elite batters and smash spots for pitchers.
The only position that can have more percentage would be outfield because there are three of them and that totals 300%. I would just use your discretion and make sure you don’t total anything more than 120% or so at the OF value hitter position. This likely won’t ever be an issue.
*EDIT* If you find yourself choosing several value hitters from the same team you should just NOT do that and instead run out a stack percentage for that team rather than having a bunch of one-offs of these high value guys. An extreme value stack combined with a high priced stack and ace pitcher can rocket you to the top of the standings.
Value Hitters for DraftKings
Jonathan Schoop/Adam Jones
Eduardo Nunez/Rafael Devers/Jackie Bradley
Edwin Encarnacion/Melky Cabrera
Raimel Tapia/Tony Wolters
Daniel Palka/Tim Anderson/Jose Abreu/Yolmer Sanchez/Jose Rondon
Leonys Martin/John Hicks
Austin Barnes/Matt Kemp
Wilmer Flores/Jay Bruce/Brandon Nimmo/Asdrubal Cabrera
Miguel Andujar/Tyler Austin/Neil Walker
Marcus Semien
Nick Williams/Aaron Altherr
Josh Harrison/Adam Frazier/Austin Meadows
Guillermo Heredia/Kyle Seager
Dexter Fowler/Marcell Ozuna/Matt Carpenter
Wilson Ramos
Delino DeShields/Jurickson Profar
Curtis Granderson/Dwight Smith Jr./Yangervis Solarte/Justin Smoak/Kendrys Morales
Juan Soto/Mark Reynolds/Anthony Rendon
Throw a minimum 10-25% exposure setting on a handful of your favorite guys from this category. This means each guy you select will be in between 2-5 lineups out of the 20-max entry MME tournaments.
Make sure that if you use multiple players from the same position to not go above 50%, just like the example above.
The objective of selecting value hitters is to give the optimizer your specific favorite cheap/value options to use when creating lineups. The algorithm then has some extra salary to make sure it can grab the correct studs and stacks.
Stacks for FanDuel
NYY – 50%
BOS – 50%
COL – 25%
TOR – 25%
BAL – 15%
WSH – 10%
PHI – 10%
NYM – 5%
I am rolling with a minimum scale between 10-50% each. You don’t need worry about who is actually stacked from the team – just trust the optimizer algorithm to optimally slap it all together). As far as what stack setting, 4-3 etc. that’s all preference and you can run what you’re comfortable with.
Stacks for DraftKings
NYM – 10%
NYY – 25%
BOS – 25%
COL – 25%
TOR – 5%
I am rolling with a minimum scale between 5-25% each which will be between 1-5 total lineups (out of 20) stacked for that range. You don’t need to worry about who is actually stacked from the team – just trust the optimizer algorithm to optimally slap it all together). As far as what stack setting, just roll out your personal preference.
If you want to do these specific stacks then make sure they are in the final lineup and you’ll have to run the optimizer with these players locked and do a fair amount of CSV copy and pasting. If time is of the essence just do the min % scale on the teams listed below.
Beyond the stacks, I actually want to try to run the optimizer without ANY restrictions and just allow the optimizer to select players most optimally without any preset stacks. If you don’t want to do specific stacks just use the min % stack feature and use the min % rule set I listed for FanDuel and DraftKings. I.E. I want the Yankees stacked at 10% minimum, I don’t care about who ends in the stack and just trust the optimizer algorithm is baller enough to fit together the most optimal pieces.
My hope is that the combination of my tweaking and also allowing the optimizer to have the freedom to still flex its algorithm muscle will be a perfect blend of human touch and computing power. The optimizer routinely will stack together 2 or 3 bats from the same team for each lineup just due to our killer projection and value algorithms.
Wrap it up, dude!
Alright, so applying all of this information and strategy can be overwhelming. I am going to make a very condensed list with specific steps to follow. If you want more detail then you’ll have to read over the article itself once more.
- Open Optimizer
- Set global max to 50% for all players
- Do not X out any player in the entire player pool (unless said player isn’t in the final lineup and the automatic update missed it – which is RARE)
- Click the pitcher category and slap a minimum percentage on all of the players I listed using the scale that I provide you with for both FanDuel and DraftKings
- Select 7-10 of your favorite value hitters, you don’t need the entire list. Use the RS, our articles, the optimizer projections, DFSA grades and whatever other sources you want to settle on your favorite 7-10 value hitters. You do not need the entire list and you don’t want to corner the optimizer into using such a specific player pool. I repeated myself because people miss this step.
- For the stacks, select your preference for stack setup (I roll with 4-3).
- Throw min % on the stacks I have listed for the team itself (not the players – unless you’re uber savvy and can do a lot of CSV editing) using the min scale I provide for both FanDuel and DraftKings
- Optimize
- Win money
- Tag me on Twitter and in Slack with your triumphant victory!
The only way to continue to perfect an MME approach is to continue to fine tune it. This is still in the trial phase and in no way shape or form a “perfect approach”. This process will likely be tweaked and manipulated as the season progresses and the DFS landscape shifts every so often as it normally does. As always, I will continue to share my findings with you in the hopes that we are able to find an edge over our competition!
Fortune favors the bold. Go make your own luck!
– Donuts