Greetings everybody, and welcome to this week’s NASCAR Xfinity preview! This is the last race before a 3-week break, so don’t miss out on what should be another fun ride. While we may be short on racing for a little while, we won’t be short on great content for our other favorite sports; MLB is in full swing, as is PGA and MMA. NBA may be winding down, but the playoffs are heating up and we’re still cranking out winners over there! Of course, we have the Domination Station lineup optimizer that is ready to go for all of these sports, as well as the best projections out there for every sport. If that sounds like something you want to be a part of, then come check us out and become part of our winning team!
Here are some of our Talladega winners!
And here’s my second place finish in the quarters tonight in MLB, because why not? We do it all!
Dover International Speedway
We head to yet another unique track this week, The Monster Mile in Dover. This track is sort of a mix between Richmond and Bristol, as it’s a smaller 1-mile track (like Richmond) with lots of banking (like Bristol). 24 degrees of banking in the turns, in fact, which leads to speeds of about 25mph faster than what Bristol sees. What happens when you get a lot of speed on a smaller track with a field full of not-so-experienced drivers? Well, we’ll probably get an action-packed race with lots of chaos, so cash games might be a little difficult again this week. Not to worry! Where there’s chaos, there are strategies to build around it, and that’s exactly what we’ll be doing this weekend in Slack. For now, let’s take a look at how drivers have been doing here on average over the last five races:
Bonus! Because we won’t have another Xfinity race until May 26th (I know, I’m sad about that too), I wanted to give a little more in the preview article this week. Instead of the normal breakdown of every ten positions, let’s look at every five. We can see that the vast majority of dominators here start in the top 5, so that would be a great place to start building lineups.
Due to the nature of a race at Dover (small track, fast speeds, and a fair amount of cautions), and because there are a lot of slow cars in the Xfinity series, it only makes sense that most of the cars starting near the back aren’t getting near as much DKFP as everybody else. In other words, be careful with punts this week, and don’t be surprised if the winning lineups this week are more balanced (rather than stars & scrubs).
Tip: go back and read my Phoenix preview article (mainly paragraphs 3 and 4), and take note of the “staggered formation” of cars getting lapped there. The same exact thing happens at Dover, but it can happen a lot faster due to higher speeds and the increased potential for chaos.
Aside from the stars and scrubs, there’s a lot of DKFP to be had in the mid-range here too. Keep an eye on drivers starting in the 20s, because if any of them have top-15 (or better) potential, they’re definitely somebody you want to consider taking here since place differential might not be a huge factor (unless the race really gets out of hand).
Xfinity drivers
Once again, we are without any full-time Monster Energy drivers this week. That means the drivers who had been upgraded to faster cars will remain in them, and the faster Xfinity cars will once again have a really good chance to shine this week. Let’s go over some of them now!
Christopher Bell ($11,300) – It took him a while, but Bell is finally the most expensive driver on the slate. It’s for good reason, though, as he has GPP-winning upside starting from anywhere in the field, especially with no Monster Energy drivers around. All formats, all day long.
Elliott Sadler ($11,200) – Mr. Dependable is business as usual; super high floor with a fairly limited ceiling. Not much more can be said about him that I haven’t said already, but if you’re playing cash this week, he’s one of your guys.
Justin Allgaier ($11,000) – Not just another weekly staple here, this is a really nice track for Allgaier. He’s had three top-5 and two top-10 finishes here in the last five races, and two of those would have been good for more than 50 DKFP. Those races were also dominated by Monster Energy drivers, which won’t be a factor this week, so his ceiling is once again as tall as Miles the Monster.
Daniel Hemric ($10,500) – He performed well in his only two Xfinity races here, finishing 13th and 4th. He’s not cheap anymore though, so he’s not as easy to plug in with the other studs as he once was.
Matt Tifft ($9,500) – Another solid option, Tifft has three top-10 finishes in his first three races at Dover, one of which would have gone for 50+ DKFP. He’ll probably join the drivers above him in the $10k+ range before too long, so take advantage of his slightly discounted price while you can.
Brandon Jones ($9,200) – This speedster is an all-around threat once again, as he can finish strongly and dominate a race. A lot of people will probably look at his track history and turn away from him, but that was a completely different car, and he’s improved as a driver since then as well.
Johny Sauter ($8,600) – Hey look, another new face! Sauter will be filling in for Gallagher, but unfortunately, he comes with Gallagher’s increased price as well. While Sauter is certainly an experienced driver and has seen Dover plenty, it’s hard to recommend a driver in his position. Taking some shots with him in GPP isn’t out of the question, but as far as I’m concerned, using him in cash games is.
Jeb Burton ($8,100) – As we saw at Richmond, Burton can handle a 1-mile track in that #3 car just fine. He’s only raced at Dover in the Xfinity series once, but I see no reason why he can’t replicate (or beat) that 13th place finish.
Noah Gragson ($7,800) – Underpriced, chalk, a good driver, and a very fast car. If you’re playing cash, you should probably be playing Gragson. If you’re playing GPP, you should probably be playing Gragson unless you think somebody wrecks him.
Kaz Grala ($7,600) – Grala is yet again a weekly GPP play. He hasn’t had his big race yet, but it’s coming. When that happens is anybody’s guess, but the whole idea of trying to win a GPP is to be on people like Grala right as they have their big day, not after.
Ty Majeski ($6,900) – Two unfortunate races has tanked his average DKFP, which is great for GPP, as people will gladly shy away from somebody with a negative average. Don’t forget that he’s driving a fairly quick car; one that has seen two top-10 finishes this year. Low floor, high ceiling drivers with low ownership are exactly who we want to target for some of our multi-entry GPP lineups, and he’s a fine candidate.
JJ Yeley ($6,400) – Apparently Yeley has decided to start racing this season, so I have to at least list him here as a GPP option. I wouldn’t go anywhere near him in cash though, because we have absolutely no idea when he’s going to go back to his 30th place finishing ways without a care in the world. I do suspect that we’ll see some effort out of him this week though, since we’re at a shorter track again and not a 1.5-mile speedway where he generally just clocks out.
Driver X ($6,XXX) – I honestly didn’t want to have one of these this week since we won’t have another Xfinity for a while, but here we are anyway. There’s a $6k driver who doesn’t belong here, and I think they have a realistic shot at a GPP-winning upside this week. I had to list Yeley so you guys didn’t think I was off my rocker trying to hide him. Stay tuned to Slack to find out who he is!
Carl Long ($4,800) – I like listing new drivers, even if they aren’t driving rocketships. He’s never finished better than 30th here, and I don’t expect much more out of him this week, but here he is anyway. You never know, maybe there will be several chaotic crashes and he’ll be the last man standing. If you’re doing multi-entry GPP he might be worth a shot as a punt-pivot if his practice times aren’t terrible, but don’t go crazy on him. That would be crazy.
Ray Black Jr ($4,700) – And finally, Ray Black Jr makes his 2018 debut. He was supposed to start the season driving the #07 car, but I guess those plans changed. Either way, he’ll probably excited to finally get on the track
Driver Y ($4,XXX) – Okay, sorry, one more! I spy a cheap driver that looks to be in a much better position than his price tag would indicate…and somebody in the DFS Army will win a tournament this weekend with him! Well, that’s the idea anyway. Stay tuned for this one too!
That’ll do it for now. If you’re new to NASCAR, be sure to check out my beginner’s and intermediate guides. You can also check out my FanDuel basics guide if you’re wanting to give that a try this weekend too (no Xfinity there though, darn). If you’re not yet a DFS Army member yet and you want to come join us for the more in-depth discussions we have in our Slack channels, along with access to all of our tools/resources, you can do so here. Don’t forget to use promo code NILLY to lock in that 10% savings! Good luck this weekend!