Welcome to this weeks Chalk Donkey article for DFS Golf. This week we have the Fort Worth Invitational at Colonial.
My name is Josh Thomas, and I’ll be writing the Chalk Donkey article for VIP’s every week here at DFS Army looking at who the chalk plays are in DFS Golf and who you can pivot to. We’ll look at if you need to eat the chalk especially in cash games, and take a deep dive into some picks using our Research Station and the Domination Station.
This week the tour stays in the Dallas-Fort Worth area with the Fort Worth Invitational held at Colonial Country Club. This is the longest running tournament held at the same course thats not a major. Players have been playing this course for years and some have a great course history which we will get into later as that seems to be a big factor here. Since this is an invitational, the field is a bit smaller than normal, with 120 players compared to 156 at a normal tour event. With the smaller player pool, its vital to identify the chalk, but its also vital to get 6/6 through so we may have to eat some it, to ensure our teams have a shot at taking down a big GPP on the weekend.
What is a Chalk Donkey?
First let’s breakdown what I consider to be ‘chalk’. Let’s look at each each price range and what is considered chalk there. (DK pricing is used for a guide)
Over 10K: >25% Anything over 25% in this range is considered chalk, and could even go down to 20%. Some weeks ownership is pretty evenly spread in this range, and some weeks one player gathers all the ownership and becomes a Chalk Donkey.
9K: >20% Again, any time over 20% of the field is on a player in this price range we would consider them a chalk donkey.
8K to 7.5K: 15%-20% This is a little trickier in this range, but I consider anyone over 15% chalk. DK has been jamming a bunch of guys in around 7.5k lately and we’ve seen guys get up there in ownership.
Below 7.5K: >10% Players are priced here for a reason, and oftentimes one or two become what I call DFS Darlings and garner a ton of ownership While you usually have to eat this chalk in cash, you want to swerve it any chance you can in GPP’s.
Who are this week’s Chalk Donkey’s?
In this section, each price range’s Chalk Donkey will be identified, and a few pivots will be offered.
Over 10k:
Jordan Spieth: DK $11,700/FD $12,400
Wasn’t last week Jordan Spieth narrative week? Here we are again, with Spieth atop the salary list, and he still can’t make a 3 foot putt. Jordan has unbelievable course history here, never finishing lower than 14th in 5 tries. I don’t think we see Jordan push the 30% ownership he had last week, but he should hover around 23-25%. The field this week is much stronger and there are plenty of options around him. I really think ownership will be fairly spread out in this range, with Spieth garnering the highest percentage.
So why not Spieth this week. It comes down to a couple things, but I can’t get over the fact that he can’t putt. We’re on bent grass (his worst surface) and with the heat, they should be watering the greens, making them much easier to roll the rock on. Thats great for Jordan, but is also great for everyone else.
Over his last ten tournaments Spieth is losing -1.6 strokes to the field putting. If we look at the historical strokes gained trends here from our research station:
If Spieth lost more than 1.5 strokes putting this week, he would on average finish 96.7. Even if we look at his adjusted strokes gained putting of -.5 he still is flirting with the cut line. Do I think he’s going to miss the cut? No. Do I think he will continue to lose strokes putting here? Yes. And if he does that he will find himself on the outside looking in. At his price tag he needs to return more than that. I’ll be going with almost a complete fade Spieth this week. High Ownership + Bad Putting = No bueno at a course that has seen good putters dominate here in the past.
So who is the pivot in this range? I’ll be going back to a player who proved a lot of doubters wrong here last year, by finishing T2 while many said this course didn’t fit him. Jon Rahm is my favorite play in this range for a multitude of reasons.
First, he blows the field out of the water in Fantasy Points/Hole, my new favorite stat of Taco’s since coming over the DFS Army as I feel it really does good a job of recognizing who not only scores well, but scores well for daily fantasy purposes. Rahm currently averages 1.08 fantasy points per whole, the next closest is Justin Rose at 1.03 and they are the only two above 1.0. Thats reason enough to play him right there but lets dig a little deeper.
With 6 holes falling into the medium Par 4 range on in our RS, thats an area that is going to separate a lot of players.
Jon Rahm as you can see, crushes these medium length Par 4’s. To boot, he’s the best of this group in Long Par 4’s and second in long par 3’s. So he ranks either as the best fantasy scorer or second best fantasy scorer on 15 of the 18 types of holes they have here. Lock him in as the top GPP Option.
There is some volatility to Rahm’s game and I don’t necessarily think he’s cash viable. I also don’t want to pay up to this range for cash, I think there are a ton of options in the mid tier that you can build a solid cash lineup from. Rahm won’t be low owned, so don’t mistake this pivot for that. He will most likely be the second highest owned player in this range, but he is clearly the best option.
I think Webb Simpson is intriguing. He gets a huge price hike after winning the Players, and my assumption is that people will see that and stay away. He’s a great option for Cash given his course history, and recent form, and I will probably use him as a pivot off Rahm in GPP if it looks like the ownership will be low, though right now he seems to be trending up in ownership projections.
9K:
I can really see this range having a pretty even ownership split like last week. No one has emerged as a must play this week. Aaron Wise comes in as the 6th highest priced player on DK and the 27th highest priced on FD. He’s a free square over on FD, lock him in in cash games.
Since the ownership projections look like this range will be mostly spread out lets focus on who is a great play here this week. The two players that I’m going to be keying in on in this range are Patrick Cantlay and Matt Kuchar.
Both are cut makers and we talked about the importance of getting 6/6 through with the smaller field this week. 
Cantlay has a made cut percentage of 94.4% (best in the field) and an Adjusted field rank of 79% (second best in the field. Lock and load. He also has one of the best Fantasy Points per medium par 4 in the field. His putting gives me pause as that has been what has let him down recently but I think he is both cash and gpp viable.
Kuchar is just steady as she goes. He has the most consistant statistics across all of these holes. He let a negative attitude get in his way last week but he comes back to a course that he has had a ton of success on, with 4 top 20’s since 2010. I’m not going to be playing a bunch of Kuch in GPP’s this week, but I think this is where you start your cash game lineups.
Koepka and Scott are boom and bust type plays and are certainly GPP viable. Jimmy Walker is on a role the past few weeks, but has mediocre course history and his statline is mediocre. He’s also due for a let down, playing his fourth week in a row. I won’t have much if any Walker this week.
8K:
As usual this is my favorite range and there are a ton of good plays(I’m literally going to talk to about pretty much everyone). Last week I really toyed with the idea of fading the top entirely and building from 9K down which turned out to be a very profitable play in GPP’s. This week I think you can do the same and build a really solid lineup, unfortunately after people see last week’s success you can bet a lot of people will be employing the same strategy.
Emiliano Grillo: DK $8600/FD $10000
I love Grillo this week. So does everyone else. He will push 20% on both sites with the amount of buzz he is getting. He’s been talked up almost every week he plays by the titans of the DFS Golf industry and for good reason.
Recent form has been great, he has decent course history, and he provides a huge value. He’s going to be chalk in cash (50ish%) and I think you almost have to play him but I’ll be swerving in GPP’s. At 20% owned, I’ll take my chances on some other lower owned guys in the reason who are a better course fit.
If we look at the 8K group as a whole, Grillo has the second lowest FP/Hole and projected course score. Two key stats we look at it, especially for GPP’s, with the wealth of options in this range, we can pivot and avoid the chalk, or just each other chalk as I’ll get to next.
Zach Johnson: DK $8500/FD $10800
Zach will be similarly chalky to Grillo, but brings with him the course history/stats that we are looking for. If we look at the graphic above, he has one of the highest FP/hole in this range and Projected Course score is the highest.
ZJ is crushing those medium length par 4’s and as a former winner here, he knows his way around this course. He’s a two time winner and 4 time top 5 finisher. He hasn’t quite performed as well in his last few trips around, but with the weather shaping up to be hot and dry with greens that are watered and receptive it plays right into ZJ’s hand.
ZJ will be chalky, but I think you eat it here for sure in cash, and I will be playing him in GPP’s as well as one of my core players.
There are a variety of other options here and they are all good, you can make an argument for anyone within this price range. Outside of ZJ and Grillo, I’m going to be focusing most of my GPP Shares on Bryson Dechambeau and Xander Schaufelle and Chesson Hadley. I might have small sample of Jason Dufner and Kevin Kisner as well, based solely on low ownership and course history. While the stats may not show it over the course of the season, Dufner has started to round into form with a 5th at the Players after a slow start to the year. Kis has struggled since his run at the Match Play but the course history here is something you can’t ignore. r
Looking at just strictly Fantasy Points per hole, Bryson at 1.0, Chesson at .98, and Xander at .93 are not only some of the top options in this range, they are some of the top options in the entire field. All three are excellent par 4 players and outside of Bryson, are fairly safe to make the cut. I think that all three are great GPP Plays, and Chesson is cash viable as well. Xander should carry the lowest ownership of the group and be a great pivot. I have a sneaky suspicion that X will be in the winning lineup.
7K:
Danny Lee: DK $7500/FD $8200
There has been a massive amount of buzz around Danny Lee in the community this week following his seemingly out of nowhere 7th place finish at the Players. Coming into that event he had finishes of 116, 51, 55, 64, 97, 128. Danny has a decent course history here having never missed the cut since 2010, and two top ten finishes. Danny doesn’t hit the ball as far as many of his peers, which allows him to hit driver instead of clubbing down on a lot of these holes and he obviously is comfortable doing that giving the history.
Danny has one of the lowest projected course scores in the entire 7k range, and the only player with a lower Fantasy Points per hole average is Jim Furyk.
Looking at the RS for a few more reasons to fade him we find a plethora of bad signs.
He has one of the highest Double Bogey or worse % in the field, his approach is game is mediocre at best, and while his putting and wedge game is good, he will be hitting a lot of mid iron’s into these greens. On top of all that, these strokes gained stats are coming from events with poor field strength.
Let others chase the 7th place finish from the players. Danny Lee is not a value this week and I won’t be playing him.
Adam Hadwin: DK $7600/FD $10600
Adam is the rare case where he is one of our best value plays on DK and one of our worst on FD. There is just a huge price differential between the two sites.
I love Hadwin, and am a self admitted fan boy. He’s a great par 4 scorer and if he ever gets his putter going watch out. If you want to eat the chalk here you can. Remember you don’t need to avoid all the chalk, only some. A good rule of thumb is keeping your ownership total under 100% or even 80% total if you are trying to be contrarian. If you differentiate else where in your lineup go ahead and lock in Hadwin he is one of the best values in the 7K range. Playing him on FanDuel might be a contrarian play as well. I think he goes way under owned over there just due to his high price.
Who are our pivots in the 7k range? There are a couple players who will have some ownership that I like, and a few that will be low owned GPP tournament winners.
Old man Steve Stricker is a great play up top of this price range, in fact everyone up top of this range should be a good play, and are players we project as value. 
Charley Hoffman is another player with a weird pricing here. He is top 15 in price on FD and all the way back in the 7K’s on DK.
My favorite play in this range though is Brian Harman. He has excellent course history, is a great fantasy scorer despite being short off the tee, and could come in at single digit ownership, or at the most low teens.
Harman is another guy we like because of his par 4 scoring ability. He is tied with ZJ for most fantasy points on medium par 4’s.
As we go down the list, there are a couple players in the low 7K range that I really like. Kevin Streelman is a cash game staple with a made cut % of 76.7%.
Sean O’Hair is someone I’ll be targeting in GPP’s as well. He has an excellent course history, projects as a good value and has the potential to pop here. A second place her last year and a second place at the Texas Open show that he can score at will sometimes.
One final play in the 7K range that will be massively underowned that I really like is Joel Dahmen.
All he does is get top twenties or miss the cut. At this price tag, at that value, with little to no ownership. I can get on board with a little Joel Dahmen in GPP’s.
Below 7K:
As usual, the ownership will be spread out. The highest owned players in this range will be Wes Bryan, Stewart Cink, and Ben Crane. All are viable options if you are looking for a GPP punt. In a different field I might be convinced that Cink is cash viable, but with the value we have in the 8K and high 7K Range I won’t be touching any of these three in cash.
The one player down here that isn’t generating a lot of buzz that we at DFSArmy are very high on this week is Abraham Ancer.
He is extremely underpriced in this range on DK. Price on FD is appropriate, but he provides a huge value here on DK for GPP’s. All he does is show up and make cuts, particularly in Texas.
Check out that made cut %! He’s also a fairly solid medium par 4 scorer and an accurate driver of the ball. By taking him in GPP’s you have a ton of flexibility with your roster and if he makes the cut you are golden.
He’s also generating little buzz, which is surprising as his salary jumped out at me right away. I’ll be plenty overweight on Ancer this week.
Final Thoughts:
As ownership trends start to finalize this week, I’ll post some updates in slack. I’m also planning on getting whether players are Cash, GPP, Both, or Neither in the RS shortly.
Over the past few weeks I’ve been toying with some different MME strategies and I’m taking it a new direction this week, so be on the lookout for some info on that hopefully with a solid strategy to utilize before the US Open at Shinnecock.
Join us in Slack Chat this week and lets win some money! I’ll be there off and on all week, but will be in helping build lineups from 9:00 to 10:00 PM CST on Wednesday night getting you guys ready to take down some GPP’s.
Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to this weeks event!