Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Recap
Let’s take a look at how our free squares did last night. For our pitcher free square, we had Walker Buehler who ended up with right around 24.55 DKFP which was good enough for right around 2.6x value. For our infielder free square, we had Brian Dozier who ended up with right around 7 DKFP which was good enough for 1.8x value. For our outfielder free square, we had Trey Mancini who ended up with right around 2 DKFP which was good enough for right around .5x value.
Today
Let’s take a look at the MLB slate for Monday night. The teams with the highest implied run total are the: New York Yankees (5.27), St. Louis Cardinals (5.10), and the Pittsburgh Pirates (4.99). The highest priced hitters on the slate are Mookie Betts, Manny Machado, and Aaron Judge. The highest priced pitchers on the slate are Chris Sale, Gerrit Cole, and Trevor Bauer.
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Free Squares
- Lance Lynn P MIN ($4,500)
- Lance Lynn and the Minnesota Twins will take on the Detroit Tigers at home tonight. The Tigers have an implied total sitting at right around 4.04 runs and the Twins are currently -153 favorites. Target Field has been the 24th best hitters park this season. Lynn has the following numbers on the season so far: .446 wOBA given up to lefties, .371 wOBA given up to righties, 22.8 K%, 16.1 BB%, .394 BABIP, 42.7 Hard%, 5.06 SIERA, and a 4.56 xFIP. He will face the Detroit Tigers tonight who have the following ranks vs. right-handed pitchers this season: 30th in BB%, 22nd in K%, 22nd in OPS, 21st in ISO, 22nd in wOBA, and a 22nd in wRC+. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 15.053 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 3.35x value. Lynn isn’t a world beater by any means but a matchup against the Tigers and at a price of $4,500 it is hard to pass him up tonight. He offers a lot of salary relief and opens up a lot of roster construction possibilities on Draftkings tonight.
- Carlos Correa SS HOU ($4,200)
- Carlos Correa and the Houston Rockets will take on the San Francisco Giants and pitcher Andrew Suarez at home tonight. The Astros have an implied total sitting at right around 4.51 runs and they are currently -253 favorites. Minute Maid Park has been the 20th best hitters park this season. Correa is likely going to be batting 4th in the order tonight. Correa has the following numbers vs. left-handed pitchers this season: 17.6 BB%, 21.6 K%, .870 OPS, .122 ISO, .419 BABIP, .383 wOBA, 146 wRC+, and a 35.5 Hard%. He will face Andrew Suarez tonight who has the following numbers vs. right-handed hitters this season: .426 wOBA, 25.0 K%, 5.3 BB%, .383 BABIP, 3.31 xFIP, and a 50.9 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 85.056. Correa’s numbers across the board have been solid vs. left-handed pitchers this season. Suarez has kinda been all over the place and judging by the Vegas numbers it looks like a decent matchup for the Astros tonight. Load Correa up as a moderately priced shortstop on Draftkings tonight.
- Rhys Hoskins OF PHI ($3,600)
- Rhys Hoskins and the Philadelphia Phillies will take on the Atlanta Braves and pitcher Brandon McCarthy tonight at home. The Phillies have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.35 runs and they are currently -114 favorites. Citizen’s Bank Park has been the 14th best hitters park this season. Hoskins is likely going to be batting 2nd in the order tonight. Hoskins has the following numbers vs. right-handed pitchers this season: 13.9 BB%, 29.9 K%, .787 OPS, .215 ISO, .307 BABIP, .341 wOBA, 115 wRC+, and a 36.3 Hard%. He will face Brandon McCarthy tonight who has the following numbers vs. right-handed batters this season: .405 wOBA, 15.3 K%, 3.4 BB%, .419 BABIP, 3.33 xFIP, and a 32.3 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 81.823. The price is simply too low for Hoskins for me tonight. He provides great power upside at such a low price tonight on Draftkings.
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Ultimate Free Square
We have a huge slate tonight with some solid tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Carlos Correa tonight! Good luck Army!
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