Pitching Breakdown
Friday, April 20th, 2018
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In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that in the write-up!
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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com
K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.
An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite
BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.
xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.
SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.
Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.
wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.
Yesterday’s Results: (here I will post fantasy points from previous day’s picks)
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Main Slate
Sonny Gray (8.2k FD) (7.7k DK) (15.5k FD2) vs TOR: Gray had his first start of the year against these Jays and only went 4 innings, but was able to rack up 8 strikeouts in that time. He followed that up with a decent start against Baltimore then was terrible against Boston. He hasn’t been the best so far this year and with success against the Jays he will look to turn it around. The current roster has a 32.5% K rate against Gray hitting just .221 with a .263 wOBA. He was pretty good last year, and he will look to turn his season around here with a Jays team who has been striking out 24.3% to RHP in their L14. With the options tonight, keep Gray more towards GPP. But could be a decent SP2 option on draftkings and fantasydraft in cash if you need it.
Chris Archer (8k FD) (8.8k DK) (17.3k FD2) vs MIN: Archer seems very cheap for what he can do and has shown to do. He’s more expensive on DK and FD2 than Gray, but is $200 less on Fanduel. The Twins have been slowing down a bit and have a 22.3% K rate and 75 wRC+ in their L14 with just an average 30% Hard%. He’s been okay this year but has faced Boston, New York, and Philly in 3 of his 4 starts who have been hitting pitchers around lately. He still has a 25% K rate this year with a 3.82 SIERA which is about average. He’s always been a pitcher who gets fairly hard and is normally over 30% every season, but he gets around 40-48% groundballs that helps him. 8 of the Twins have seen Archer and they have 97 at-bats against him hitting just .175 with a 35% K rate and no one has really touched him up. I like him for a low owned GPP option tonight considering the options we have.
Max Scherzer (11.4k FD) (12.5k DK) (23.7k FD2) @ LAD: number one of the late night hammer amazing plays tonight. We know how good Max is and he has pitched amazing this year. The Dodgers have a combined .153 average with a 34% K rate against Max in their careers. The Dodgers have been quite hot lately, but this will most likely end as a 1-0 or 2-1 game tonight. He has a crazy 38.4% K rate and just 4% walk rate on the year with a 26.3% hard%. He’s been giving up a ton of fly balls so far (55.4%). His 2 HR given up this year have been to LHH, which the Dodgers will roll out at least 6 tonight. If Max has any “struggles” it would be against lefties. This has a matinée pitcher’s duel written all over it. Max is in play in all formats.
Clayton Kershaw (11.5k FD) (12.2k DK) (23.7k FD2) vs WSH: The Nats actually have some OK numbers against Kershaw in their careers. He still has over a 30% K rate against their current roster though. The same goes for Max, but at their prices, we want them to grab at least 10 K’s and go deep into the games. That is good because they both will probably go 7-8 innings here tonight. Kershaw isn’t getting hit that hard either (26.9%) and lets up 43.9% groundballs. Don’t need to say much about these two pitchers tonight, they are elite and in play in all formats.
Trevor Bauer (9k FD) (9.4k DK) (17.6k FD2) @ BAL: Baltimore is a team struggling this year. In their L14 against RHP they have the 2nd highest K rate (27.5%). He’s scored 30 in one game, then 46 in each of his last two starts (fanduel points). He has a 24.7% K rate this year with an average 3.78 SIERA. Baltimore’s starting lineup has an O-Swing% of 30.63%, which means, they swing at 30% of pitches outside of the strike zone. They also have a 12.65% SwStr%. Bauer has a 31.9% O-Swing% along with a 10.1% SwStr%. Bauer will be very low owned and I absolutely love this spot for him tonight.
My Personal Rankings
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