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NBA DFS SATURDAY SPECIAL 4-21

The first two games Wall played I was close to 100% with him.  Yesterday, I only had him at 50% because of his price tag.  It was that sticker shock of him being over 10k.  Toronto really has no answer for him.  He can do whatever he wants.  I’d recommend playing him throughout this series regardless of his price.  4 game slate tonight.  I don’t mind cash for 4 gamers.  Today and tomorrow are our last 4 game slates.  Sad, I know.  Let’s dive in!

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Rajon Rondo (7100/7600): Not 8k yet?  Playoff Rondo is going to give you 35-45 every game.  I’m just going to keep playing him and marking this off as a free square.  He can’t be defended, especially not by this Portland team who has checked out.

Ricky Rubio (7400/6800): OKC has decided to focus their defense on everyone but Rubio and let Rubio shoot the ball.  Well, we like that kind of defense for DFS purposes.  Two 40 point games.  What are you waiting for?  You have your two point guards.  Don’t overthink this one.  Rubio/Rondo.

Russell Westbrook (12000/10900): I think people are starting to realize studs need to hit 60+ for them to pay off.  With that said, here is the deal with RWB tonight.  I’m just not a fan of Russ here going into Utah needing to hit 60 when he hasn’t given me 60 yet.  I feel so much more comfortable just saving salary and playing the above 2 gentlemen.  RWB does have GPP winning upside every time he takes the court though, so if you do more than 1 lineup…you better have some exposure.

Damian Lillard (9300/8400): Last year in the playoffs, Dame shot it 28 times a game.  He is shooting it 23 times a game this year.  He should jack it up 30-35 times tonight if he knows whats good for him.  I understand guys.  Pelicans defense has stymied Damian the first 3 games.  I know that!  I wrote it up the first two times they played!  Pelicans Defense destroys the Portland offense.  They haven’t adjusted.  Jrue Holiday’s 1on1 defense is no joke.  So just play the top 2 guys if you don’t want to toy with this.  I’ll have some Dame exposure because I know what he is capable of.  If he shits the bed, then fine.  Portland loses and I won’t have to worry about it again.  He has 60 point upside and I want a piece of that if it happens.

Jeff Teague (6900/6000): Teague normally does really well against the Rockets except for last game.  It was kind of an ugly game.  Minnesota’s offense looked lost.  It really has all series.  This play is mainly an ownership leverage play.  He won’t be high owned and is capable of going for 50 if the Twolves get their shit together tonight.  If they get run off the court then he will go for 20 again.

Honorable Mentions: Chris Paul – So much focus is on Harden.  Paul has free roam and he demonstrated what he is capable of by going for 50+ in a blowout game.   He is the definition of boom or bust.  He can go for 25 or 50.  So if your tummy is tingling about Paul today then play him.  You just might be right.  Shabazz Napier could see extended run tonight if Turner/Harkless sit.  However, we probably won’t know before lock so this play carries extreme risk.

Shooting Guards:

Jrue Holiday (8300/7800): Top play for me at SG tonight.  Jrue has shown his floor is 35+ in the playoffs.  I usually hesitated to roster him in the regular season because of the duds he used to drop.  Playoff Rondo has increased everyone’s level of play.  He has a high floor with 50+ upside.  Sign me up!

Andrew Wiggins (6200/5600): I like Wiggins here at his price because he is taking 20-25 shots per game.  This really helps his floor.  He should have no problem reaching 30 today and if he adds any ancillary stats he will get to 40.  This is his first home playoff game so his emotions will run high.

Dwayne Wade (4900/5100): It’s really simple.  Wade needs to play well for the Heat to win.  The Sixers ran Miami off the floor late in the game.  We can’t have that if we want Dwade to hit or exceed value.  His price is fair.  This game WILL be competitive.  Wade is good for 25 tonight with the chance of blowing up to 40.

Donovan Mitchell (8100/7400): If he was 100% healthy, I would have listed him as my number 1 point guard.  He is only around 85% with his foot injury.  I still like his floor.  He will be anywhere from 35-50 and that is good enough for me.

Honorable Mentions: JJ Redick – I usually prefer him at home but his price came down.  He is a boom or bust play though so keep that in mind.  He is an ownership play off of Wade.  Pat Connaughton could see extended run tonight.  I will have some exposure here just in case if Mo Harkless and Evan Turner sit.  He will play 25+ minutes if they both do.  This play carries risk.

Small Forwards:

Paul George (8000 on both): Super consistent these first two games.  He had an amazing game 1 scoring 36 points but he didn’t really have any other stats so he only ended with 43.  I think he still has a DFS blowup game in his back pocket.  High Floor with High Ceiling for 8k.  Load him up.

Justice Winslow (4800/5000): I really prefer him over Richardson.  Miami prefers his Defense and if he gets hot offensively he eats up all the minutes.  I’ll keep playing him over Richardson.

Corey Brewer (4700/4400): If you want to win, put Brewski in!  He doesn’t have great upside, but you know you are going to get around 20 with him.  He is safe for his price.

Jimmy Butler (8600/7300): This is more geared towards DK.  I’ll just play George on FD over him.  Butler will ball out tonight.  It’s just a matter of if that will show up in the DFS stat sheet.  I’ll be taking some chances here.  I see him playing into his strengths again and being a pest on Defense.  His offense looks lost.  This affects his upside.

Honorable Mentions: I mentioned Gerald Green last time and I will mention him again.  He will have open looks while he is on the court and if this game blows out he wins you a GPP.  It’s as simple as that.  He has a floor of 0 though.  Keep that in mind.  I am staying off Turner and Harkless since I doubt we know their status pre-lock.  I’m leaning to Turner definitely not playing, and Harkless is a 50/50.

Power Forwards:

Nikola Mirotic (8000/7500): I will keep playing the hairless wonder over AD and reap the rewards.  He is almost 5k cheaper and scores about 10 less DFS points.  What is there to think about here?  Why aren’t you playing him yet?

Ben Simmons (9600/10200): You know exactly what you will get with Simmons.  He is going to get you 45-55.  Sometimes you just need a few safe plays on your roster who are going to give you 5x and move on.

Aminu (5500 on both): He is their primary role player.  His price is still too cheap.  Load him up with confidence at his price.

Derrick Favors (5400/5300): Favors rewarded people who listened to the DS last time out.  I don’t see him having that type of game but he can easily get 30+ again.

Carmelo Anthony (5600/5900): Anthony is a decent pivot off of Aminu or Favors.  Honestly, they all have around the same floor with 40 point upside.  Anthony has been the chalkier option between the 3 as of the last 2 games.

Honorable Mentions: James Johnson – He could go overlooked tonight with 50 point upside.  He isn’t as safe as the above-mentioned players, but his upside is higher.

Centers:

Joel Embiid (9600/9100): If the center position has been an issue for you, just play Embiid.  Don’t overthink it.  He is good for 40-50 points and won’t kill your lineups.

Clint Capela (7900/7200): We need this game to stay close or Capela loses his upside.  He is absolutely having his way with Towns.  30 point floor with 50+ upside.

Rudy Gobert (8100/6700): He is a bargain on DK.  He will go overlooked today.  He might be under 10 percent on Fanduel.  He has 50 point upside and can win you a GPP.

Hassan Whiteside (5400/4900): Gortat rewarded people who stuck with him last night and Whiteside is in a perfect position to reward owners tonight.  Dwade has spoken out and said he wants Whiteside to be more involved.  The Heat really need him now to win the series since Embiid is back.  I will have some Whiteside but I KNOW THE RISK.  If you don’t want to mess around here – Play Embiid!

Honorable Mentions: Karl Anthony Towns – If he plans on stepping up, tonight would be the night.  He will be low-owned.  He can either win you a GPP with a 60 or cause you to not even cash.  If you are running tons of lineups, you’d be a fool not to have some KAT tonight.