Xfinity preview article to get up to speed on some of those drivers, as this will be the first short track race for the Xfinity series (as well as a week with no Monster Energy drivers in that race).
Bristol Motor Speedway
Bristol is a half-mile track like Martinsville, but that’s about where the similarities end. Martinsville is more of a “flat” track with only 12° of banking in the corners (0° on the straights), where Bristol is advertised as having 26-30° in the corners (6-10° in the straight). That means more speed (averages speeds at Martinsville tend to be around 90-92 mph, where Bristol sees speeds of around 123-126 mph), which of course means more potential chaos (nearly 40% faster speeds with the same size of track). Becuase of this, I recommend shying away from cash games here and to focus more on tournaments.
Xfinity Fitzgerald Glider Kits 300
It’s a bit more difficult to compare this race to any of the others in the past, simply because there are no Monster Energy studs participating this week. However, we can still take a look to see how those races played out. Here are the numbers from the last five races:
Unlike last week, the cars starting in the back tend to score a little more here than at safer tracks like Texas. This is due to more cars not finishing the race, giving the slower cars free passes that they don’t normally get elsewhere. Because of that, and because we don’t have a super-expensive driver to pay up for, we can go a little more stars & scrubs this week than we usually do. As usual, it’s a 1-2 dominator race.
Xfinity drivers
You’ll also notice that the pole sitter tends to gobble up a bunch of lead/fastest laps here. This should hold true even without the Monster Energy drivers, as the fastest Xfinity drivers have shown they can stay in front of the rest of them without any problem. If Christopher Bell or Justin Allgaier get the pole, they’ll have a really good shot at breaking 100 DKFP. It’s also very possible that both of them achieve that score, so even though they probably will be chalky (rightfully so), they are two of my favorites this week. You can always go underweight or fade them, as a massive wreck can just as easily wipe them out, but I have a hunch we’ll see both of them in the winning lineup this week.
Ryan Preece once again makes an appearance in the #18 car, and I like him yet again this week. He’ll have one of the best cars in the field and he’ll have a great shot this weekend to make the most out of it.
Another favorite of mine this week is Austin Cindric. This is because Ty Majeski is driving the #60 car this weekend, leaving Cindric with an upgrade to the #22 car. You know, the one that Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, and Ryan Blaney all get to drive. While I don’t expect him to dominate a race like they can, Cindric is still a very capable driver (two top-10s in the #60 car this season and a top-10 at Bristol in the truck series), and that’s a lot of car for $8,400.
John Hunter Nemechek will also be driving a fast car this week, the #42 that we’ve seen Kyle Larson dominate in. JHN is also a very capable driver and had a top-5 finish earlier this year at Atlanta. There’s no reason to think he can’t do it again this week (or at the very least, a top-10 performance).
Chase Briscoe also gets an upgrade, as he gets to take over the #98 car that Kevin Harvick drives. I don’t except Briscoe to go Harvicking this weekend, but that’s also a lot of car (and a solid driver) for a low price of $8,000. He was in my Slack notes (and the perfect lineup) last week, and he could very well be there again this week.
Shane Lee is a bit of an unknown, but we do know that the car he’s driving is plenty capable, as it’s the #3 car that Austin and Ty Dillon typically drive. I do wish he was cheaper, but it’s still probably worth taking a few shots with him in tournaments.
Tommy Joe Martins is another driver to keep an eye on. Both he and Bayley Currey have driven this car into the winning lineup, and he’s motivated to do it again. Take a peek at this article to read a little more about him and what their team is doing. He looks to be one of the better punts this week, along with Vinnie Miller and David Starr.
Finally, my Driver X pick. This week it’s Jeremy Clements. He’s raced at Bristol 15 times since 2010, and his all-time average finish is 21.4. If you look at his last 10 starts, that number drops to 19.7. Look at the last 5 races, and that number drops again to 17.6. In other words, he’s getting better every time he races here, and since Bristol is sort of an “equalizer” track (in that raw speed isn’t as big of a factor like it is at some other tracks like Fontana or Phoenix), his increasingly better driving skill here should make him a solid choice. Add in the fact that he’s only $6,100 (which is the second lowest he’s been all season), that makes him a driver I really like this week.
Monster Energy Food City 500
Just like at Martinsville, we have a ton of lead laps to go around again this week. I’d shoot for at least two dominators, as that tends to be the sweet spot here. Let’s also take a look at where the DKFP has been coming from. Here are the last five races:
As you can see, it’s similar to how the Xfinity races played out, just with more to go around. Your biggest scores are starting up front, with plenty of value coming from the back. There are several drivers who can fit the bill for us, so let’s go over them.
Monster Energy drivers
Due to the nature of this track, I don’t want to go into a ton of detail about the Monster Energy drivers just yet, as qualifying will be huge this weekend. For now, take a look at how these drivers did over the last five races here:
There are a couple names near the top that may look surprising, but their track history doesn’t lie; Trevor Bayne and Ricky Stenhouse Jr both perform very well here, as does Clint Bowyer who stole the show at Martinsville. All three are viable options, especially Bowyer who is in a much faster car now than he was in the past. Matt DiBenedetto has also had some success here (three finishes of 21st or better and a 6th place finish in just six races) and shouldn’t be overlooked as a budget option. While another 6th place finish is unlikely, it does show that he’s capable of surviving this race and returning plenty of value.
Regarding Martin Truex Jr and Kyle Busch, you’ll notice that their average finishes here aren’t the greatest. Truex Jr has definitely been hit or miss, but if you look at Kyle Busch’s race log, you’ll see that he had three straight races where he was involved in an accident. Either way, they both have dominator potential, and should not be overlooked, but the point here is that even the guy who led 600+ laps in 5 races can have a bad average finish, which is exactly why I shy away from cash games here.
Ryan Newman not only has a good history here, but he’s also notoriously difficult to pass. Kasey Kahne finished 24th here last year, but before that had four straight top 20 performances (20th, 13th, 17th, and 16th). Both are solid options that stand out to me, especially Kahne with his lower price.
AJ Allmendinger is known to be a good driver at these kinds of tracks but actually struggles a bit at Bristol. People will be high on him because of how well he performed at Martinsville, but don’t be surprised if he goes back to his top-25 ways this weekend. In 17 races here, he’s only finished 15th or better six times, and only once over the last five races. It’s worth the thought of going underweight, or even fading him, as there are drivers cheaper than him who could easily outscore him.
That’ll be all for now. We’ve seen how qualifying can really throw everything for a loop, so be sure to keep an eye on that (and practices) to get a better idea of who to go with. I probably won’t be available Saturday to help with the Xfinity race (though I will try to be), but I’ll have my normal notes/picks on Sunday for the Monster Energy race. Until then, see you guys in Slack!