Compared to the other main DFS sports offered on both FanDuel and DraftKings, MLB is a completely different beast. There are various statistics and analytics with differing opinion on the importance of each (depending on who you ask) and plenty of data to overwhelm even the best of researcher’s. Disseminating what is most important on any given slate is an ever shifting landscape and I firmly believe that with MLB there should not be any rules that are necessary to follow, only guidelines.
My hope is to deliver an article with compelling evidence as to why a pitcher, stack, or hitter is an ideal target to invest in. I prefer to present my opinions based on numbers and evidence rather than tummy tingles and feelings.
Lastly, before we get started – the DFSA has so many new things to offer for this MLB season. The complete list can be found via this link!
Top Pitching Option
Jose Berrios is the clear top option on the slate. He’ll be highly owned and he’s quite easy to fit on both FanDuel and DraftKings on Thursday. In 2017, Berrios held opposing right-handed hitters (RHH) to a .257 wOBA and .115 ISO while facing 356 batters on that side of the plate. His 25% K-Rate against righties bodes well as the White Sox likely will have a minimum of six RHH in their lineup. He also currently holds the highest DFSA Grade (97.30) on our Research Station (our analytical cheat sheets with relevant stats from 2016-2018 for every possible player on the slate).
Speaking of the RS, this year we have xBenJamminx and CeeGee putting together our sheets (RS). They are excellent contributors and their talent and success of formulating data and pumping out delicious grades and rankings has been a welcomed addition to the site. Just another bonus of being a member of the DFSA!
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Stacks to Target
Ian Kennedy is an arm I want to target today when selecting my stacks and batters. His Hard-Hit rate is atrocious (46%) and was in 2017 as well (41%). He also has a 46% fly ball rate (FB %). Let’s recap, he’s allowing opposing batters to smash the ball and nearly half of the time the ball is hit into the air, yikes. On top of that, Gerry Davis is umpiring this game which is another knock against Kennedy, as he’s known as a hitters ump with a small strike zone.
I am going to make this quite simple, with the Angels having a 5.1 IRT all of their bats are pretty much in play. However, I plan on investing heavily into Mike Trout, Ian Kinsler (if active and leading off), Justin Upton, Zack Cozart, and Shohei Ohtani (no matter where he’s batting in the order). I see a potential for a double-digit scoring outing via the Angels bats and multiple home-run potential. I’ll have my heaviest exposure to these bats and likely set the minimum percentage for MME at 20-25% on each of these bats.
The Twins bats are in a glorious spot on Thursday as well. With an IRT of 5.2 runs and delectable match-ups up and down the lineup, they make for ideal targets to stack up. In just 11.2 innings pitched, Lucas Giolito has allowed 8 earned runs and is pitching to contact. The Twins can take advantage at home as they have a handful of bats that can smash right-handed pitching. In 2017, they finished with a team ISO of .214 against right-handed pitchers. Twins’ Smash!
I am going to be a bit contrarian here and avoid the big bats like Miguel Sano and Brian Dozier. I will take advantage of a lower owned Twins stack by loading up on the Twins lefty hitters that have significant splits against righties.
Against right-handed pitching in 2017, Joe Mauer had a .125 ISO and .354 wOBA, Eddie Rosario finished with a .269 ISO and .348 wOBA, and Logan Morrison had a monster .300 ISO and .371 wOBA. LoMo will make about 40% of my lineups today as he is the perfect MME target because of his terrible start to the season but superb matchup. Regression to the mean will begin soon and I want to be ahead of the field of LoMo’s price hike. All three bats are priced below $2,800 on FanDuel and make for my favorite 3-man stack on the entire slate. If adding anymore hitters to the stack I would look first at Max Kepler (.212 ISO and .350 wOBA in 2017 against righties) and Eduardo Escobar (.216 ISO and .322 wOBA ”).
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Best of luck,
Donuts
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https://wp.dfsarmy.com/2018/03/how-to-create-multiple-dfs-lineups-in-just-15-minutes.html/ref/22
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