This article is VIP only and will be broken down into three categories. The first category will simply be identifying pitchers I want to target for the main slate and some brief thoughts on why I like them. The second category will be primarily used to just simply identify solid value based on pricing alone, not so much specific match-ups to take advantage of. Lastly, I want to throw out a handful of stacks and run an experiment with the optimizer.
Let’s get to work!
Pitchers to Target
Clayton Keyshaw
Max Scherzer
Trevor Bauer
Dylan Bundy
Noah Syndergaard
Sean Newcomb
Sonny Gray
Justin Verlander
Jhoulys Chacin
This is a massive player pool for pitchers that I will be targeting. There are many reasons to roll out any number of these guys. I am going to break this down in the most simplistic way possible.
*IF* you are rolling out several lineups or even just one, then the guy you want is Kershaw. It’s always Kershaw. He’s proven to have the highest ceiling in the history of the universe and I just don’t argue with science. Hitting value is abundant at this point in the season and we can easily still make a quality lineup.
If you do end up rolling out a handful of lineups I would make Kershaw my cash game pitcher and then roll with Bauer, Gray, and Verlander as my next three aces.
If you plan on doing MME I want to try something tonight as a small experiment. Rather than trying to identify the one or two pitchers I will need on my own, I am simply going to set the minimum exposure to the group of pitchers above at 7% (which is equivalent to 10-lineups if you are running out 150-lineups in a GPP). That way if the slate ends up busting and a bunch of these arms fall apart I’ll at least have 10-lineups likely in the hunt for the top of the standings.
By setting it at 7% each (63% total and 90-lineups in total) that leaves the optimizer wiggle room with 37% of my pitcher selections still available and 60-lineups to be created using the algorithm. This will hopefully give the optimizer some room to flex its’ muscles and take a non biased approach as to who is the most optimal option.
Value Hitters for FanDuel
Ian Happ
Shin-Soo Choo
Adrian Beltre
Jurickson Progar
Pedro Alvarez
Jesus Aguilar
Daniel Descalo
Alex Avila
Mark Canha
Mitch Moreland
Hunter Renfroe
Austin Jackson
Value Hitters for DraftKings
Chris Iannetta
Adrian Beltre
Shin-Soo Choo
Matt Carpenter
Renato Nunez
Jurickson Profar
Pedro Alvarez
Ronald Guzman
Aaron Hicks
Jesus Aguilar
Daniel Descalo
Alex Avila
Marcus Semien
Mark Canha
Stacks for FanDuel and % exposure (7% each = 10-lineups)
Yankees – Gardner, Judge, Gregorious, Stanton
Brewers – Cain, Yelich, Shaw, Thames
Rockies – Blackmon, leMahieu, Arenado, Gonzalez
Cards – Fowler, Pham, Carpenter, Martinez
Cubs – Happ, Bryant, Rizzo, Schwarber
Rangers – Choo, Profar, Beltre, Gallo
Arizona – Peralta, Goldy, Descalso, Avila
DraftKings stacks to Target and % exposure (10% each = 2 lineups out of 20)
Cardinals – Fowler, Pham, Carpenter, Ozuna, martinez
Yankees – Gardner, Judge, Gregorius, Stanton, Sanchez
Cubs – Happ, Bryant, Rizzo, Contreras, Schwarber
Rangers – Choo, Profar, Beltre, Gallo
Arizona – Peralta, Goldy, Descalso, Avila
Beyond those stacks I actually want to try to run the optimizer without ANY restrictions and just allow the optimizer to select players most optimally without any preset stacks. I am intrigued to see if it throws together stacks on its own, possibly mini-2/3 man stacks.
My hope is that the combination of my tweaking and also allowing the optimizer to have the freedom to still flex its algorithm muscle will be a perfect blend of human touch and computing power.
The only way to continue to perfect an MME approach is to continue to fine tune it. This is a trial and in no way shape or form a “perfect approach”. This process will likely be tweaked and manipulated by the time I finish this and likely will take a week or two before I feel comfortable with the actual delivery of this concept. As always, I will continue to share my findings with you in the hopes that we are able to find an edge over our competition!
Fortune favors the bold. Go make your own luck!
<3 Donuts